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Forums - Sales Discussion - September NPD 2018 thread, results up! PS4 421K; NSW 259K; XB1 176K; 3DS 81K

 

Let me know you feedback, would you like those threads to be a thing?

yes 46 93.88%
 
no 3 6.12%
 
Total:49
Qwark on 20 October 2018
Megiddo said:
Qwark said:

 Whilst it is tracking behind 2017, it could have a better holiday season if they cut the price to €200-. Except for Japan the console is all but dead.

It's behind 2017 NPD? Jeez with all these months where PS4 was up YoY I figured it'd be ahead at this point.

Worldwide it unfortunately still is, though it track miles ahead of the competition nonetheless. Last year the total amount of sales at the end of september where somewhere along 11.5 million units. This year it is a bit over 9.5 million units, which is still much better than 2016. 



Please excuse my (probally) poor grammar

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Miyamotoo on 20 October 2018

Qwark said:

Next month RDR2 and COD those are going to be huge, perhaps there is another NPD 400k+ month incoming for PS4. Whilst it is tracking behind 2017, it could have a better holiday season if they cut the price to €200-. Except for Japan the console is all but dead.

Are you sure about that?

This are number from Resetera:

January-September total sales:

PS4: ~2708K (+9%)
NSW: ~2245K (-3%)
XB1: ~1868K (+32%)



Qwark on 20 October 2018
Nate4Drake said:
Qwark said:

Next month RDR2 and COD those are going to be huge, perhaps there is another NPD 400k+ month incoming for PS4. Whilst it is tracking behind 2017, it could have a better holiday season if they cut the price to €200-. Except for Japan the console is all but dead.

Sorry, what is dead in Japan ?  I think I didn't get your point, if any.

Sales in Japan for PS4 are pretty bad lately, excluding the week the PS4 pro got a price cut, it sells less than 20k every week even in weeks with pretty big releases even for the Japanese market like Spidey, it didn't get a noticable boost. 



Please excuse my (probally) poor grammar

Qwark on 20 October 2018
Miyamotoo said:

Qwark said:

Next month RDR2 and COD those are going to be huge, perhaps there is another NPD 400k+ month incoming for PS4. Whilst it is tracking behind 2017, it could have a better holiday season if they cut the price to €200-. Except for Japan the console is all but dead.

Are you sure about that?

This are number from Resetera:

January-September total sales:

PS4: ~2708K (+9%)
NSW: ~2245K (-3%)
XB1: ~1868K (+32%)

I meant worldwide sales could even be better at the end of the year if the PS4 gets a permanent price cut to €200 from black friday. Small chance but not impossible. If VG numbers are to be believed it track quite a bit behind 2017 worldwide numbers. 



Please excuse my (probally) poor grammar

melbye on 20 October 2018
Keiji said:
PwerlvlAmy said:
I don't see RDR 2 giving PS4 big numbers like Sept numbers with Spider-Man. If it was exclusive I'd say guaranteed, but since its multiplatform, I don't see it.

I see a lot of people buying a PS4 thanks to RD2.

But it won't push PS4 sales the way Spider-Man did, i don't think PS4 will be anywhere near 400k



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Barkley on 20 October 2018
melbye said:
Keiji said:

I see a lot of people buying a PS4 thanks to RD2.

But it won't push PS4 sales the way Spider-Man did, i don't think PS4 will be anywhere near 400k

But rdr2 isn't on its own, it's also with another juggernaut, cod.

~Fixed Post -Ryuu96
Last edited by Ryuu96 - on 20 October 2018

globalisateur on 20 October 2018
bananaking21 said:
Kyuu said:

There's no doubt that the vast majority of us predicted the Switch to beat PS4 in NPD 2018; and this is on the very logical presumption that PS4 would get its long-overdue "permanent" pricecut before August (It didn't). All in all, we moderately overestimated Switch for reasons including Labo's potential and 2017's stock issues which made the demand for the foreseeable future look greater than it turned out to be. More evergreen games, the new model, and a price drop should liven things up, so my expectations for 2019 remain very high.

PS4 was underestimated mainly due to its age. Not many consoles peak on their 5th year, let alone without an official price drop. Nintendo's optimistic projection as opposed to Sony's pessimism also contributed to the poor predictions in general.

I actually predicted PS4 to be up year on year worldwide, but the basis of that was the permanent pricecut and Kingdom Hearts 3 releasing this holiday, I would have never thought PS4 can do so well without the aforementioned.

As for Switch, it's overperforming in parts of Europe and slightly underperforming in USA relative to my expectations. Can't comment on Japan since the handheld community is heavily reliant on a low price range. If Nintendo doesn't drop the price down to $150 at one point, then it wouldn't shock me if it it fails to outsell 3DS or even PSP.

Did you really expect Kingdom hearts 3 to have a huge impact on PS4 sales? An even bigger one than Spiderman or RDR? Because the way you're wording it seems to Indicate that KH3 was going to catapult PS4 sales. Honestly I doubt it will have any affect at all. Maybe a slight bump that week in Japan.

I expect PS4 to sell 100k in Japan when kingdom heart 3 is released. It sold 140k when Monster Hunter world was released. Great post Kyuu !

Last edited by globalisateur - on 20 October 2018

Megiddo on 20 October 2018

100k for KH3 seems farfetched, but 100k for KH3 and REmake 2 seems like at least a possibility, especially if there's a price-cut for the slim.



Mordred11 on 20 October 2018
PwerlvlAmy said:
I don't see RDR 2 giving PS4 big numbers like Sept numbers with Spider-Man. If it was exclusive I'd say guaranteed, but since its multiplatform, I don't see it.

Yeah, it's multiplatform, but the marketing is centered around the PS4. That deal was made by Sony for a reason. I personally wouldn't buy a PS4 just to play Spider-Man, but I would for RDR2, knowing I'll get a lot more hours out of it than I would with Spider-Man.



Train wreck on 20 October 2018

October 2017 NPD was the following guesstimates (Resetera):
Switch <300K
Ps4 ~ 193,000 - 213,000 (~205k given)
XB1 ~ 127,000 - 137,000

I can see both the Xbox one and PS4 being up year on year due to COD and RDR2, Switch with the Smash bundle coming out the last day of tracking might be difficult to reach the 300k with Benji saying the Switch is soft.