By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Pachter: Switch on track to sell only 8 million systems this Fiscal Year

DonFerrari on 20 August 2018
Alby_da_Wolf said:
Maybe he's confusing American sales with worldwide ones, I've seen it happen countless times and surely by many other people than him, usually from USA like him, anyway.

Not sure if this was the case on Patcher, but you are right sometimes people talk about USA as being the world. But then 8M in 1 fiscal year only in USA is quite impressive and could track to 20M on the year (what are the percentages of distribution to Switch?)



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Around the Network
Sordel on 20 August 2018
DonFerrari said:
Mnementh said:

First, I don't see Labo as a bomb, Nintendo sees sales in line with their expectations:

https://gonintendo.com/stories/311497-nintendo-labo-has-met-expectations-and-will-continue-to-be-supp

<snip>

 

This source would have been good on the threads that discussed Labo being a flop or anything much below expectations.

It still didn't do big numbers, but if it's doing close to projection can't say it's a failure.

Labo hasn't had a holiday season yet and - given that it's a product that is most appropriate for an age group that can't buy its own full-priced games - that's an important factor. One of the reasons that Pachter can't really forecast is that during that Spring & Summer a different kind of gamer (for example, the sort who is all-in on Octopath Traveller) drives all the sales activity; that's no longer true in the Fall.



estebxx on 20 August 2018

How much has it sold so far?

 

Edit:  i mean this year



NoirSon on 20 August 2018

I can see maybe 10 to 12 million but just saying 8 in a period the machine will get both a new Smash Bros title plus a Pokémon project is selling those titles and everything else on the platform short.



123Lucas on 20 August 2018

13-14 million. That's my prediction.



Around the Network
melbye on 20 August 2018

Yesterday this rumor about an upgraded Switch coming early 2019
https://gamerant.com/nintendo-switch-4k-rumor/

What if this is why Nintendo is adamant that they will sell 20 million units although from a outsider's point of view it seems unlikely. I for one hope this rumor isn't true because Switch isn't that old and it is way to early for a New 3DS like upgrade in my opinion. Also don't like the idea of fracturing the userbase



Medisti on 20 August 2018

Apparently, Pachter has a 49% success rate with his predictions. It'll be 48% after this one.



jonathanalis on 21 August 2018

Cant be real.
He probably mispelled 18 million



Miyamotoo on 21 August 2018
Azelover said:
Maybe he's trying to lower the expectations?

I think 20 million ain't gonna happen with the current lineup. But 8 million is a little absurd. Even if it does happen, it's still not right to predict that now.

Current lineup is solid, espacily in October-December period where Nintendo expect to sell most of Switch units. Even if they don't hit 20m, they will probably be close to 20m.



Mnementh on 21 August 2018
setsunatenshi said:
Mnementh said:

First, I don't see Labo as a bomb, Nintendo sees sales in line with their expectations:

https://gonintendo.com/stories/311497-nintendo-labo-has-met-expectations-and-will-continue-to-be-supp

Now that can be some marketing BS, but I think many here who expected more saw Labo as some sort of Wii Sports, which it is certainly not. So, putting it on Labo is unjustified, it is pretty clear that Smash and Pokemon Let's Go are the titles that are intended to push sales.

Secondly, what he saying is no valid extrapolation. He is an analyst and knows well that Q3 will be much bigger than the other quarters. Linear extrapolation from Q1 is wrong - and Pachter knows that. So his 8M figure is just BS to gain attention (which worked). It is in no way correct extrapolation.

Where is one way to say it seems unlikely for Nintendo to hit 20M, and another to frame it with this ridiculous 8M number.

Of course it's said in a satirical tone, but it's to illustrate the point that the 20M target was beyond any sort of reasonable target unless you admit this Labo was something Nintendo were banking on spreading like wild fire (1). So yeah, in that sense it bombed hard. Then you look at the software Nintendo is releasing this year, so go ahead and tell me where exactly do you justify it selling better than last year? (2) Smash!? (3) A crappy pokemon remake from the gameboy era? (4) Unless they are planning some significant price cut, then I'm not seeing it. They will be forced to cut those targets, but hey that's just my guess.

Maybe the recent piracy developments will cause a surge of sales though, that can somewhat mitigate the Labo debacle.

(1) My link exactly is about Nintendos expectations of Labo

(2) Maybe based on the fact, that it is already selling better than last year (launch period excluded). I usually prefer data over make-believe.

(3) The lowest selling Smash sold 5 million.

(4) Did gamefreak drove over your cat or something? There is this hostility coming from. That's like saying the Tomb Raider reboot was a crappy remake from the Saturn era... Say what you will, it is Pokemon and it will sell.

 

So, seeing you're that certain, why not bet on it? You're saying Switch sells worse this year than last. I say different. Let's define it: calendar year 2018 (from January to December) vs. calendar year 2017 and according to VGC-numbers. Loser gifts silver tier supporter for three months to a user of winners choice. What do you say? After all you just wrote, you must be pretty certain Switch will sell less this year. So you should take this bet, sure win.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]