Quantcast
BOLD PREDICTION: Super Smash Bros Ultimate Will Sell over 25mil WW Lifetime, Book IT

Forums - Nintendo Discussion - BOLD PREDICTION: Super Smash Bros Ultimate Will Sell over 25mil WW Lifetime, Book IT

TranceformerFX said:
25 Million units? Lol... That's ridiculous dude. Call of Duty barely reaches those numbers now, and that's multi-platform.

I don't know of a SINGLE, platform exclusive fighting game that has reached that kind of milestone.

You're grossly exaggerating Super Smash's brand potential. It'll sell (probably) 10 - 12 million units lifetime.

lol



Switch Friend Code = 5965 - 4586 - 6484

PSN: alejollorente10

Around the Network
tbone51 said:
Im sorry i did it unorganized.... But was trying to see how ssbu legs can be. BotW and MK8D show how crazy evergreen legs can be. That said if ssbu has even worse legs than mk8d it can still cross 25mil

No game is going to have legs like MK8 D, but Smash Bros Ultimate doesn't need to have legs like that.  I think BotW is a better milestone.  BotW still has very strong legs even though it released over two years ago.  Smash Bros basically need legs like that or maybe just a little stronger.  The main thing is that it needs to show that it is going to keep selling strong even years later.

Right now my gut is that Smash is going to keep selling like that.  Right now when people get a Switch, the biggest chunk of people see Mario Kart as that "must own" game, because basically everyone likes Mario Kart.  After that I think the people who prefer single player games see Zelda as the next "must own", while people who prefer local multiplayer see Smash Bros as "must own".  And I think this mentality is going to keep up throughout the Switch's lifetime.  Other games may be popular, but so far no other game will have legs like these 3.  (Pokemon might end up being a 4th game like this though, we'll have to wait and see.)



Oh yeah, this won't be the last time this thread gets necrobumped I bet. The lowballers are gonna eat so much crow for this, and good Lord, if it actually makes 25 million, it'll be Crow Thanksgiving up in this bitch. I love a good Tbone prediction thread. Welcome back dude!



I predicted less than 20 Million. Now its looking like Smash has a good chance to hit that mark.

I'd say anywhere from 18 - 22 Million for lifetime sales.



HylianSwordsman said:
Oh yeah, this won't be the last time this thread gets necrobumped I bet. The lowballers are gonna eat so much crow for this, and good Lord, if it actually makes 25 million, it'll be Crow Thanksgiving up in this bitch. I love a good Tbone prediction thread. Welcome back dude!

Thanks! Yeah look at all the lowballing predictions lol 😆



Around the Network

Just FYI if SSBU has slightly less BotW legs next year itll look something like this....

SSBU

2018: 12.08mil
2019: 1730k + 920k + 800k + 1350k (16.88mil)
2020: 825k + 625k + 725k + 1125k (20.21mil)
2021: 500k + 450k + 500k + 950k (22.61mil)
2022: 250k + 200k + 225k + 475k (23.86mil)
2023.....end of time: 500k (24mil+) lol



SpokenTruth said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

The official tally was 14.73m as of June 30, 2019.  Of course all results we've seen so far suggest this Smash Bros has far better legs than any previous entry.  This will definitely be a thread to watch for the next few years.

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/software/index.html

It was at 13.81 million at the end of March.  That's a gain of over 900k for that quarter.  If the rate of sale is the same, expect another 900k for a current total of ~15.7 at the end of Sept.  But since the Switch Lite released 10 days before the end of the quarter, we'll give it a conservative boost to 1 million.  That would put it at 15.73 million at the end of the quarter.

25 million overall is pretty much guaranteed now. 

Barkley said:
SpokenTruth said:

25 million overall is pretty much guaranteed now. 

No it's not. Smash won't have legs like Mario Kart. It will continue to decline. It won't reach 25m.

Sarkar said:
SpokenTruth said:

It has a 2.5:1 attachment ratio.  The only way for it to not hit 25 million is for the Switch to sell less than ~63 million units.

The attach ratio is going to take a hit for all games when Switch Lite comes into play as it will be bought largely by the same people who already have a switch and these games.


Actual total - 15.71 million.  A 980k gain.

Looks like it sold like I said it would. 

Barkley said:
SpokenTruth said:

It has a 2.5:1 attachment ratio.  The only way for it to not hit 25 million is for the Switch to sell less than ~63 million units.

After it's first quarter the attachment ratio was 2.67:1. It will continue to go down. Holiday shipments this year should give a good indication if I'm right or wrong though.

Regardless, 25m is still going to be a better prediction then whatever I said and presumably 99% of people in this thread.

I'm not sure you are understanding the attachment ratio. 2.5:1 is better than 2.67:1.  That's consoles sold to software sold.  For example, a 1:1 ratio would mean every Switch owner also owns Smash.  2:1 means 50% of Switch owners also own Smash.  2.5:1 is 40%.  2.67:1 is 37%.



Massimus - "Trump already has democrat support."

The amount of "10-12m at best" predictions here is truly staggering.



VGChartz hates Smash for some reason (and probably thought it was a Smash 4 port).



mZuzek said:
The amount of "10-12m at best" predictions here is truly staggering.

If smash were to stop at lets say 23mil, i bet a few of those 10m-12m prediction users would still have a way to downplay this thread lol