With the latest NPD figures, vgc estimates the Switch has sold at total of ~14M units. With no big releases on the horizon it's safe to rule out that the Switch will ship another ~6M units this quarter ...
That's incorrect. You're suggesting it needs another 6m sell through, but it doesn't. Nintendo's forecast had it doing 20m shipped for the fiscal year (April 2018 to March 2019). Honest question: do you know the difference between shipped and sold? VGC numbers are sold, not shipped.
PS: If the 10m shipped number for this quarter is correct, Switch will be at 15.1m shipped as of December 31st, needing another 5m to reach the goal. I agree with you that even with that it's impossible if those are the numbers we'll be getting next week from Nintendo, but as food for thought, Switch did ~3m last year on the same quarter. This year, with the info we have, it's tracking well ahead of last year's January (about 40% higher based on MC), so we can realistically expect it to ship anything from 3.5m to 4.2m, which should put it between 18.6m~19.3m for the fiscal year. While not reaching 20m, it will be quite close (will miss the mark by less than 10%) for sure).
Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won