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So... Will Nintendo be able to ship those 20 million Switch units?

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Switch is selling 25.5% more YoY as of 1st of december.
FY2017 shippements were at 15.05 millions so if we add 25.5% it will end up at 18.9 millions as it stands.
The gap is 1.1millions. I think SSBU, NSMBUDX and eventually another game release in Q4 can close this gap.
19.5m is the worst case scenario in my opinion.



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JRPGfan said:
manuelogando40 said:
5m april-september
1.2m October
3.1m November
6.5m December
1.4m January
1.1m February
0.8m March
Total: 19,1.
So they will fail in their prediction. But yoy Nintendo Switch will sell 25% more.

Seriously doubt Nintendo can sell 6.5m Switch's in december.
At most it ll be like abit above 5m, at worst it ll be barely be over 4m.

That should take your total down to 16,5 to 17,5, which is alot more realistic with how things have been going so far.
Nintendo is going to fall short of those 20m and not just by 1m but by more than that.

If nintendo wanted to do a 20m year, they would have needed to stay well ahead of the PS4 more or less all year round.
Sadly that didnt end up happending, and having unrealistic expectations of the holidays isnt going to fix it.

So youre seriously thinking 16.5M is a solid prediction for this? Despite the fact that from the numbers we have so far during the holidays (which is Nintendoes forte) is significantly up compared to last year? Now you're just being silly.

20M is by no means a certain thing, but it's going to be closer to 20 than 16.5 that's 100% certain.



It really is looking like they will be like 2M short.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363


So, according to Gamefront (site is in german and you have to scroll down a bit) Furukawa said to Kyoto Shimbun newspaper he is positive Nintendo will reach its software shipment target of 100 million units but reaching the 20m hardware forecast "is not an easy to reach target" and they'll have to see how things develop in early 2019. (Maybe someone has an english source for this? I'm working right now, so not much time to post).

So, it looks like they know they won't hit 20m but software sales will probably exceed 100m. I still think they banked on Labo being a big hit earlier this year but then it underperformed. But it should be ok, as 2019 is shaping up to be a really strong year.



Louie said:

So, according to Gamefront (site is in german and you have to scroll down a bit) Furukawa said to Kyoto Shimbun newspaper he is positive Nintendo will reach its software shipment target of 100 million units but reaching the 20m hardware forecast "is not an easy to reach target" and they'll have to see how things develop in early 2019. (Maybe someone has an english source for this? I'm working right now, so not much time to post).

So, it looks like they know they won't hit 20m but software sales will probably exceed 100m. I still think they banked on Labo being a big hit earlier this year but then it underperformed. But it should be ok, as 2019 is shaping up to be a really strong year.

He is repeating same words as October investment questions. 



"Every day I look in the mirror and ask myself: "If today were the last day of my life, would I want to do what I am about to do today?". If the answer is no for too many days in a row, I know I need to change something"

Steve Jobs

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manuelogando40 said:

 

He is repeating same words as October investment questions. 

Well, yeah probably not much has changed since then. (Great sig by the way, love that quote from Jobs!)



Louie said:

So, according to Gamefront (site is in german and you have to scroll down a bit) Furukawa said to Kyoto Shimbun newspaper he is positive Nintendo will reach its software shipment target of 100 million units but reaching the 20m hardware forecast "is not an easy to reach target" and they'll have to see how things develop in early 2019. (Maybe someone has an english source for this? I'm working right now, so not much time to post).

So, it looks like they know they won't hit 20m but software sales will probably exceed 100m. I still think they banked on Labo being a big hit earlier this year but then it underperformed. But it should be ok, as 2019 is shaping up to be a really strong year.

Few months ago they said same thing, that 20m goal is not is to reach, even Kimishima said same thing when they actually revealed that forecast for 20m FY, so that nothing new and nothing didnt changed.



Companies are supposed to (and essentially always do) issue conservative estimates for performance. Therefore, since they said 20mm, we know that they actually expected 21 or 22 million. If they fall short of 20mm units, that will be seen as a significant miss by anyone that cares about the financial performance of Nintendo.



VAMatt said:
Companies are supposed to (and essentially always do) issue conservative estimates for performance. Therefore, since they said 20mm, we know that they actually expected 21 or 22 million. If they fall short of 20mm units, that will be seen as a significant miss by anyone that cares about the financial performance of Nintendo.

Recently we have seen Sony basically under project for PS4 every single year (sometimes over than 2M).

Also we have seem Nintendo over project on 3DS and WiiU, but get close U/O on Switch. If they get under 2M of projection while being conservative that can impact them negatively.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363


I stand by my opinion: If they can do 10 mil. or close to in Q3 (and it seems by now that this will come true), the 20 mil. for FY are possible. To make 5 mil. in Q4 is hard to do but doable. Since New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe comes out in early Jan it now has some weight in favour of meeting the target. On top of that, Dragon Quest Builders 2 came out yesterday in Japan. This game is huge in Japan and will definitely boost some console units.