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So... Will Nintendo be able to ship those 20 million Switch units?

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quickrick said:
pikashoe said:

It's kind of odd that you seem to only talk about a console, company and games you don't like. I've never seen you talk about anything but nintendo and I've never heard you say a single positive thing about nintendo. Again you are just going to give yourself a bad reputation. 

Anyway I don't want to make a big thing out of this. Just thought I'd point it out. 

Ps. I actually agree that the 20 million figure will be a bit out of reach.

umm because the hyperbole is ridiculous, all i been hearing since last year is switch will destroy everything during the holidays with mario, holidays come, and switch gets out sold by both consoles. Then In 2018  switch will win almost every NPD, switch only wins one so far, and now the hyperbole smash and pokemon are the second coming, yet when the pokemon came to 3ds in 2013 holiday sales were weaker then the previous year, same with smash, on wiiu, and 3ds.

Like someone already wrote, you've got some nerve calling out people on hyperbole, Mr. "Fall Off A Cliff."

Your points pushing negativity regardless Nintendo are getting out of touch.

 

GProgrammer said: 
I was going to make a prediction thread a couple of months ago about No Switch won't ship 20 million during the year, I can't really do it now though since its near dead certain

Nintendo clearly mostly counting on Pokemon and Smash Bros, so sou can't really say that at least until Holiday season is over.

 

Megiddo said: 
Did they change the gameplay of Smash? It looked the same from the ~20 minute or so video I saw.

They chanced quite a beat gameplay.



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I think they botched the marketing on smash Bros, they should have focused on what's new instead on what is coming back.

It's a weird game to be honest, in its approach I mean. Calling it ultimate (which means last, it's not the last smash bros of course), telling people that it is a rehash of the whole series but better. Reusing the engine and assets of the last game.

It's obviously a project that was meant to be developped fast, with the idea of finally give people all the characters they already use, make it more competition friendly and go back to melee days in terms of gameplay.

But when your two big games for the year are a pokemon remake and a "definitive" version of smash Bros, it certainly lacks the idea of freshness.
Nintendo needs to do better for 2019.



quickrick said:
nemo37 said:

That is primarily anecdotal on your part, I can easily bring up plenty of people that see it as a new game with substantial gameplay changes (in fact, the pro Smash 4 player that won the tournament said the game was quite different compared to Smash 4). Beyond that, Mario Odyssey's concept is not totally new either it is very much an iteration of Super Mario 64, Sunshine, and there are even elements from Galaxy and 3D World. We have also had games like Splatoon 2 which have very similar relationship to their predecessors that Smash Ultimate is having with Smash 4 and that game helped maintain momentum in the West and actually move a substantial number of consoles in Japan.

For me Smash Ultimate is just as much of a new entry as its predecessors (as a fighting game, that generally retains its style from one version to another, there is a limit on how much it can evolve), but lets say, for the sake of argument, that the majority of gamers see it your way in that it is a port. Well lets look at games like Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, which is a port, being both an evergreen title and a system seller. On other systems you have ports like The Last of US on PS4 and GTA V on PS4/XONE, both of which moved systems and sold well despite being ports. There is also the Switch's portable factor here, where games of this level from Nintendo where simply not possible on their previous handheld (Smash 4 on 3DS was substantially compromised compared to the Wii U version for example) so for many 3DS owners (where Smash 4 was mostly purchased on) this will be a substantial step up. Finally, BoTW was also available on Wii U, yet it drove Switch sales.

Just based on past precedence, Smash Bros and Pokemon Let's Go are both big and they will move large numbers of systems and the games themselves will sell quite well overall. The only thing in doubt here is whether or not they will be enough to move 20 million units this fiscal year. Personally, I am seeing Switch being between its first full fiscal year and the 3DS's second full fiscal year (13-15 million). For me the only way I see them approaching 20 million is with a price cut on the stand alone models in addition to bundles at the current price. 

Yes i l know the smash player that won said that, but opinions seems to differ you have other pro players are saying its smash 4.5, in the end we will will have to wait to see what the majority think and reviewers think, but the fact that people are arguing its 4.5, a port, just means its not impressive show case for a sequel, and doesn't look fresh.

I don't know...I mean there were all sorts of similar conversation around Mario Kart 8: Deluxe and BoTW (both of which were actual ports) being able to sell systems as well as just how new Splatoon 2 was (I recall a good number people in gaming forums calling it Splatoon 1.5, much like some who are calling Smash Ultra, Smash 4.5). So long as the game is of high quality and marketed well, I don't think these conversations particularly matter. 



nemo37 said:
quickrick said:

Yes i l know the smash player that won said that, but opinions seems to differ you have other pro players are saying its smash 4.5, in the end we will will have to wait to see what the majority think and reviewers think, but the fact that people are arguing its 4.5, a port, just means its not impressive show case for a sequel, and doesn't look fresh.

I don't know...I mean there were all sorts of similar conversation around Mario Kart 8: Deluxe and BoTW (both of which were actual ports) being able to sell systems as well as just how new Splatoon 2 was (I recall a good number people in gaming forums calling it Splatoon 1.5, much like some who are calling Smash Ultra, Smash 4.5). So long as the game is of high quality and marketed well, I don't think these conversations particularly matter. 

I never said it wouldn't sell well, I just don't see the franchise taking to the next level like Mario odyssey did with 3d mario which basically nailed it from the very beginning. 



maxleresistant said:

I think they botched the marketing on smash Bros, they should have focused on what's new instead on what is coming back.

It's a weird game to be honest, in its approach I mean. Calling it ultimate (which means last, it's not the last smash bros of course), telling people that it is a rehash of the whole series but better. Reusing the engine and assets of the last game.

It's obviously a project that was meant to be developped fast, with the idea of finally give people all the characters they already use, make it more competition friendly and go back to melee days in terms of gameplay.

But when your two big games for the year are a pokemon remake and a "definitive" version of smash Bros, it certainly lacks the idea of freshness.
Nintendo needs to do better for 2019.

There are plenty of games that do that. Just look at the recent Tomb Raider games, the Battlefront/Battlefield titles, EA Sports titles,  etc. All of these are based on the engines of their predecessors and many share assets with their predecessors. In the case of Smash specifically, why would you create a new graphics engine and assets when the Switch is not far more graphically powerful than Wii U? 

I do agree though that if Nintendo wanted to reach 20 million this year, they should have had more big hitter lined up throughout the year (not just at the end), hopefully they have a more robust output in 2019.



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Megiddo said:

I mean, I don't know what software was launched on the Wii in 2011 in May nor do I care to find out. The reason I said "Wii was well past its sharp decline I believe" was in relation to the Switch's May software. I never even mentioned whether or not the Wii in 2011 reached 100 million software, you did.

My argument is based on data. Smash and Pokemon could very well sell 30 million units this fiscal year but what else is there to sell the rest? Mario Kart, BOTW, Splatoon 2, and Odyssey combined for over 30 million units last fiscal year and yet software was no even anywhere close to 100 million.

If you want to have a data-derived argument, then show me your thinking into exactly how Nintendo will reach 100 million software this fiscal year with the lineup they have announced. You've given me Smash and Pokemon for 30 million. You've got 70 million left.

This post got me thinking, how does the sales breakdown go for the rest of the fiscal year based on what we already know? So, here's my personal take on the sales breakdown you're asking for. For 

First-Party Releases (FY 3/2019) : Total = 28.5 million

Smash Ultimate + Pokémon Let's Go = 20 million       
-         I decided to combined these, as my bias against Let's Go and for Smush will probably balance each other out. (For the record, I hope that Pokémon Let's Go fails so spectacularly that Pokémon will have to go back to doing good spin-offs again)

Super Mario Party = 3 million
Mario Tennis Aces = 2.5 million
-         The issue I have with trying to come up with a number for these two games is twofold - the last traditional Mario Party was ten years ago on console, and the last Mario Tennis was...Ultra Smash, so I don't have much to go off. There's also how these are the only big Nintendo games on Switch for the next six months until Smush comes out.

Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze (New Funky Mode) = 800k
Hyrule Warriors: Definitive Edition = 600k
Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker = 400k
-          Bayonetta 2 on Switch made it to about 370k sold-through in nine weeks for some reason, so I certainly do not know what to expect from these games. Captain Toad being full-price for the sake of being full-price will definitely hurt it, though.

Sushi Striker: The War of Sushido = 200k
-          This bombed at full price and we all know it.

Since I'm feeling generous, I'll say that Fire Emblem: Three Houses will make it to Q4 FY3/2019 and will sell a million copies.

Older First-Party Releases: Total = 14.2+ million 

Super Mario Odyssey = 3 million
The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild = 3 million
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe = 3.5 million
Splatoon 2 = 2 million
-           Note that I'm trying to get a feel for the legs for the Big 4 so far based on what I see in the weekly Media Create threads and the NPD rankings. I guess these are reasonable conservative estimates.

Kirby Star Allies = 1 million
-           I think that Kirby Star Allies will at least leg it out two two million sales when all is said and done, but word-of-mouth could be a big push against it. I hope they use the feedback to make a more meaty Kirby game.

ARMS = 500k
1-2 Switch = 500k
Xenoblade 2 = 400k
Pokken = 300k (ex-Japan)

-           I have to admit that I came up with the Xenoblade 2 "prediction" first since I think the Torna DLC will move copies of the game for two distinct reasons: extended word of mouth around the game as a result and people buying the physical copy of Torna standalone without realizing that they need a copy of Xenoblade 2

I'm a bit tired after writing all this down, but it should be pretty obvious by this point that I don't think that the Switch will hit 100 million software sales this fiscal year. There are really only two third-party releases that I'm half-sure will reach at least one million units sold this year, which are Octopath Traveler and Yo-kai Watch 4. so eh



 
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nemo37 said:
maxleresistant said:

I think they botched the marketing on smash Bros, they should have focused on what's new instead on what is coming back.

It's a weird game to be honest, in its approach I mean. Calling it ultimate (which means last, it's not the last smash bros of course), telling people that it is a rehash of the whole series but better. Reusing the engine and assets of the last game.

It's obviously a project that was meant to be developped fast, with the idea of finally give people all the characters they already use, make it more competition friendly and go back to melee days in terms of gameplay.

But when your two big games for the year are a pokemon remake and a "definitive" version of smash Bros, it certainly lacks the idea of freshness.
Nintendo needs to do better for 2019.

There are plenty of games that do that. Just look at the recent Tomb Raider games, the Battlefront/Battlefield titles, EA Sports titles,  etc. All of these are based on the engines of their predecessors and many share assets with their predecessors. In the case of Smash specifically, why would you create a new graphics engine and assets when the Switch is not far more graphically powerful than Wii U? 

I do agree though that if Nintendo wanted to reach 20 million this year, they should have had more big hitter lined up throughout the year (not just at the end), hopefully they have a more robust output in 2019.

I'm not saying it is wrong to use the same engine. The thing is every smash Bros episode are a leap in terms of graphics, content, characters. So there was obviously this kind of expectation for a smash Bros switch.

I'm just saying why this episode doesn't feel like a leap, why the game doesn't have the positive buzz it should have.

 

Personally, I think the series needs a complete overhaul, it's peaked with melee and since then each new episode have been disappointing.



TheWPCTraveler said:
Megiddo said:

I mean, I don't know what software was launched on the Wii in 2011 in May nor do I care to find out. The reason I said "Wii was well past its sharp decline I believe" was in relation to the Switch's May software. I never even mentioned whether or not the Wii in 2011 reached 100 million software, you did.

My argument is based on data. Smash and Pokemon could very well sell 30 million units this fiscal year but what else is there to sell the rest? Mario Kart, BOTW, Splatoon 2, and Odyssey combined for over 30 million units last fiscal year and yet software was no even anywhere close to 100 million.

If you want to have a data-derived argument, then show me your thinking into exactly how Nintendo will reach 100 million software this fiscal year with the lineup they have announced. You've given me Smash and Pokemon for 30 million. You've got 70 million left.

This post got me thinking, how does the sales breakdown go for the rest of the fiscal year based on what we already know? So, here's my personal take on the sales breakdown you're asking for. For 

First-Party Releases (FY 3/2019) : Total = 28.5 million

Smash Ultimate + Pokémon Let's Go = 20 million       
-         I decided to combined these, as my bias against Let's Go and for Smush will probably balance each other out. (For the record, I hope that Pokémon Let's Go fails so spectacularly that Pokémon will have to go back to doing good spin-offs again)

Super Mario Party = 3 million
Mario Tennis Aces = 2.5 million
-         The issue I have with trying to come up with a number for these two games is twofold - the last traditional Mario Party was ten years ago on console, and the last Mario Tennis was...Ultra Smash, so I don't have much to go off. There's also how these are the only big Nintendo games on Switch for the next six months until Smush comes out.

Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze (New Funky Mode) = 800k
Hyrule Warriors: Definitive Edition = 600k
Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker = 400k
-          Bayonetta 2 on Switch made it to about 370k sold-through in nine weeks for some reason, so I certainly do not know what to expect from these games. Captain Toad being full-price for the sake of being full-price will definitely hurt it, though.

Sushi Striker: The War of Sushido = 200k
-          This bombed at full price and we all know it.

Since I'm feeling generous, I'll say that Fire Emblem: Three Houses will make it to Q4 FY3/2019 and will sell a million copies.

Older First-Party Releases: Total = 14.2+ million 

Super Mario Odyssey = 3 million
The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild = 3 million
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe = 3.5 million
Splatoon 2 = 2 million
-           Note that I'm trying to get a feel for the legs for the Big 4 so far based on what I see in the weekly Media Create threads and the NPD rankings. I guess these are reasonable conservative estimates.

Kirby Star Allies = 1 million
-           I think that Kirby Star Allies will at least leg it out two two million sales when all is said and done, but word-of-mouth could be a big push against it. I hope they use the feedback to make a more meaty Kirby game.

ARMS = 500k
1-2 Switch = 500k
Xenoblade 2 = 400k
Pokken = 300k (ex-Japan)

-           I have to admit that I came up with the Xenoblade 2 "prediction" first since I think the Torna DLC will move copies of the game for two distinct reasons: extended word of mouth around the game as a result and people buying the physical copy of Torna standalone without realizing that they need a copy of Xenoblade 2

I'm a bit tired after writing all this down, but it should be pretty obvious by this point that I don't think that the Switch will hit 100 million software sales this fiscal year. There are really only two third-party releases that I'm half-sure will reach at least one million units sold this year, which are Octopath Traveler and Yo-kai Watch 4. so eh

If you done similar calculation last year in same time for last year, I am pretty sure you would conclude that you think that Switch couldn't sell 70m games in first 13 months on market, but it did.

Dont forget, now in May in US, Switch software had boost of 90% whitout digital sales compared to last May, so with digital sales we talking about at least twice better software sales compared to last year in same time period, and that's without big games this year while last year there were Zelda BotW and MK8D. Also for the record, Nintendo just in January-March period sold 17.8m games, again without big releases. With all that on mind, I expecting that every quarter outside holiday season Switch will sell at least around 15-20m units per quarter (so we talking about 45-60m for 3 quarters) and for November-December period I expect around 50m (only Pokeman+Smash will probably do around 20m).



Touchy people get triggered whenever someone has a different view. Great "discussion" lol.

Only circle jerks allowed here.



Miyamotoo said:
TheWPCTraveler said:

<snip> for obvious length-related reasons

 

If you done similar calculation last year in same time for last year, I am pretty sure you would conclude that you think that Switch couldn't sell 70m games in first 13 months on market, but it did.

Dont forget, now in May in US, Switch software had boost of 90% whitout digital sales compared to last May, so with digital sales we talking about at least twice better software sales compared to last year in same time period, and that's without big games this year while last year there were Zelda BotW and MK8D. Also for the record, Nintendo just in January-March period sold 17.8m games, again without big releases. With all that on mind, I expecting that every quarter outside holiday season Switch will sell at least around 15-20m units per quarter (so we talking about 45-60m for 3 quarters) and for November-December period I expect around 50m (only Pokeman+Smash will probably do around 20m).

To italicized: I will concede this point. At this point last year, I didn't imagine that the big tentpoles of the Switch would do so well in terms of selling to a large part of the install base.

To bolded: You do realize that Hyrule Warriors: Definitive Edition and that Tropical Freeze port released in May 2018 (in the USA), right? Smaller releases, sure, but releases nonetheless. The biggest release in May last year on Switch (in the USA) was Puyo Puyo Tetris, which was something, I guess.

To the underlined: Even if just to satisfy my curiosity, please provide a game-by-game breakdown for how Switch software will hit 100 million units this fiscal year. I just want to seethe details behind how you think it will happen - which is what I think Megiddo was aiming for, and what I was definitely trying to bait from you by going for conservative estimates :P



 
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