I mean, I don't know what software was launched on the Wii in 2011 in May nor do I care to find out. The reason I said "Wii was well past its sharp decline I believe" was in relation to the Switch's May software. I never even mentioned whether or not the Wii in 2011 reached 100 million software, you did.
My argument is based on data. Smash and Pokemon could very well sell 30 million units this fiscal year but what else is there to sell the rest? Mario Kart, BOTW, Splatoon 2, and Odyssey combined for over 30 million units last fiscal year and yet software was no even anywhere close to 100 million.
If you want to have a data-derived argument, then show me your thinking into exactly how Nintendo will reach 100 million software this fiscal year with the lineup they have announced. You've given me Smash and Pokemon for 30 million. You've got 70 million left.
This post got me thinking, how does the sales breakdown go for the rest of the fiscal year based on what we already know? So, here's my personal take on the sales breakdown you're asking for. For
First-Party Releases (FY 3/2019) : Total = 28.5 million
Smash Ultimate + Pokémon Let's Go = 20 million
- I decided to combined these, as my bias against Let's Go and for Smush will probably balance each other out. (For the record, I hope that Pokémon Let's Go fails so spectacularly that Pokémon will have to go back to doing good spin-offs again)
Super Mario Party = 3 million
Mario Tennis Aces = 2.5 million
- The issue I have with trying to come up with a number for these two games is twofold - the last traditional Mario Party was ten years ago on console, and the last Mario Tennis was...Ultra Smash, so I don't have much to go off. There's also how these are the only big Nintendo games on Switch for the next six months until Smush comes out.
Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze (New Funky Mode) = 800k
Hyrule Warriors: Definitive Edition = 600k
Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker = 400k
- Bayonetta 2 on Switch made it to about 370k sold-through in nine weeks for some reason, so I certainly do not know what to expect from these games. Captain Toad being full-price for the sake of being full-price will definitely hurt it, though.
Sushi Striker: The War of Sushido = 200k
- This bombed at full price and we all know it.
Since I'm feeling generous, I'll say that Fire Emblem: Three Houses will make it to Q4 FY3/2019 and will sell a million copies.
Older First-Party Releases: Total = 14.2+ million
Super Mario Odyssey = 3 million
The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild = 3 million
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe = 3.5 million
Splatoon 2 = 2 million
- Note that I'm trying to get a feel for the legs for the Big 4 so far based on what I see in the weekly Media Create threads and the NPD rankings. I guess these are reasonable conservative estimates.
Kirby Star Allies = 1 million
- I think that Kirby Star Allies will at least leg it out two two million sales when all is said and done, but word-of-mouth could be a big push against it. I hope they use the feedback to make a more meaty Kirby game.
ARMS = 500k
1-2 Switch = 500k
Xenoblade 2 = 400k
Pokken = 300k (ex-Japan)
- I have to admit that I came up with the Xenoblade 2 "prediction" first since I think the Torna DLC will move copies of the game for two distinct reasons: extended word of mouth around the game as a result and people buying the physical copy of Torna standalone without realizing that they need a copy of Xenoblade 2
I'm a bit tired after writing all this down, but it should be pretty obvious by this point that I don't think that the Switch will hit 100 million software sales this fiscal year. There are really only two third-party releases that I'm half-sure will reach at least one million units sold this year, which are Octopath Traveler and Yo-kai Watch 4. so eh