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Predict lifetime sales of Octopath Traveler

Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Predict lifetime sales of Octopath Traveler

I think it will sell...

Less than 1 million 14 9.52%
 
1-2 million 79 53.74%
 
2-3 million 40 27.21%
 
Over 3 million 14 9.52%
 
Total:147
killeryoshis said:
Wyrdness said:

It's bizarre how the Switch is fast becoming a platform for Jrpgs when it's previous successors were known for not even coming close to the genre, the number of entries of the genre would hardly hit double digits.

The Switch is inheriting Nintendo's home and handheld market. The DS and 3DS are JRPG powerhouses. Th Switch is just continuing that trend. Nintendo's home consoles didn't get many JRPGs after the SNES because of budget and competition.  So the Switch being such a JRPG powerhouse it to be expected.  

Yeah, the HD era makes doing graphics a much more expensive and complicated undertaking so for many JRPG developers instead of going to home consoles they went to portable systems which over time developed graphics on par with previous generations. The Switch is poised to inherit those developers, especially since despite it having the power to do more in the current climate they do not necessarily have to.



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RIP to those that said less than 1million! xD
Did that in less than 1 month!!!



Pocky Lover Boy! 

Pinkie_pie said:
I played the demo but im buying the game unless it's $20. 1m demo downloaded means nothing. Im predicting 1m max

Heheeheee ...

Mar1217 said:
1M during the first month (and maybe even more if the reviews are glowing).

But I think if it can manage to do around the same as Xenoblade 2, or even more, it would be a success.

So my verdict is 1,5-2M copies sold.

I'm on track boy !



Switch Friend Code : 3905-6122-2909 

Seems those 1m plus demo downloads had more significance then some thought.



Pinkie_pie said:
I played the demo but im buying the game unless it's $20. 1m demo downloaded means nothing. Im predicting 1m max

 

Slownenberg said:
Depends on the price. Since its a retro style (granted its 2d retro on 3d world) it feels like an indie game that should be like $30. I'm totally down to buy this game for that kind of price. But no way I'm buying it anywhere close to $60. Does it have a price yet? If it's near $60 I say definitely under 1 million. If it's $30 I could see lifetime 1.5 - 2 million.

 

fedfed said:
1.1 it will get there slowly/eventually. don't think there is a big hype around it. judging by the pre-sales!

 

konnichiwa said:
I felt Xenoblade had more hype and it's retail wise struggling to pass the million.

Secondly pre orders in Japan aren't that hot best case it reaches 100K (except if the next days it surprisingly climbs up in pre order numbers)

 

Metroid33slayer said:
Lucky if it does a million IMO. These types of games always struggle to sell.

 

friendlyfamine said:

This would be the first third-party new IP 1m+ seller on Switch, correct?

It might take a little longer to reach 1m than some might like to admit.

I imagine most people who bought Xenoblade 2 would tune into this, but Xenoblade 2 had a lot more advertisement backing it.

I've kind of been looking around, and I've seen that a lot of the advertisement views on youtube are botted/unrepresentative of how popular the game is. I think it'll at least reach around 200k+ in Japan, beating whatever Xenoblade 2 sold there. Not sure if it can beat Xenoblade 2's numbers in the US or Europe, but I overall don't expect this game to sell more than Bravely Default. It all really depends on the preview footage and reviews really. I know that people will cancel their order or revaluate their purchase decision if it ends up lower than 80 on Metacritic since story seems to be very important in these kinds of games.

And the price hurts, just noticed. Opening month it could hit 500k at peak, maybe it will be at 1 million by the end of the year. But I'm being optimistic since Skyrim even in holiday season barely broke that figure in a month and a few weeks.

Time to prepare the first round of crow. Double portion for konnichiwa for underestimating both total sales and first week sales in Japan



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Bofferbrauer2 said:
Pinkie_pie said:
I played the demo but im buying the game unless it's $20. 1m demo downloaded means nothing. Im predicting 1m max

 

Slownenberg said:
Depends on the price. Since its a retro style (granted its 2d retro on 3d world) it feels like an indie game that should be like $30. I'm totally down to buy this game for that kind of price. But no way I'm buying it anywhere close to $60. Does it have a price yet? If it's near $60 I say definitely under 1 million. If it's $30 I could see lifetime 1.5 - 2 million.

 

fedfed said:
1.1 it will get there slowly/eventually. don't think there is a big hype around it. judging by the pre-sales!

 

konnichiwa said:
I felt Xenoblade had more hype and it's retail wise struggling to pass the million.

Secondly pre orders in Japan aren't that hot best case it reaches 100K (except if the next days it surprisingly climbs up in pre order numbers)

 

Metroid33slayer said:
Lucky if it does a million IMO. These types of games always struggle to sell.

 

friendlyfamine said:

This would be the first third-party new IP 1m+ seller on Switch, correct?

It might take a little longer to reach 1m than some might like to admit.

I imagine most people who bought Xenoblade 2 would tune into this, but Xenoblade 2 had a lot more advertisement backing it.

I've kind of been looking around, and I've seen that a lot of the advertisement views on youtube are botted/unrepresentative of how popular the game is. I think it'll at least reach around 200k+ in Japan, beating whatever Xenoblade 2 sold there. Not sure if it can beat Xenoblade 2's numbers in the US or Europe, but I overall don't expect this game to sell more than Bravely Default. It all really depends on the preview footage and reviews really. I know that people will cancel their order or revaluate their purchase decision if it ends up lower than 80 on Metacritic since story seems to be very important in these kinds of games.

And the price hurts, just noticed. Opening month it could hit 500k at peak, maybe it will be at 1 million by the end of the year. But I'm being optimistic since Skyrim even in holiday season barely broke that figure in a month and a few weeks.

Time to prepare the first round of crow. Double portion for konnichiwa for underestimating both total sales and first week sales in Japan

I see =p pre orders were low in Japan tho and it hardly reached  more than 100k first week =p but what ever makes you feel good =p






konnichiwa said:

I see =p pre orders were low in Japan tho and it hardly reached  more than 100k first week =p but what ever makes you feel good =p

What are you on about it sold 110k first week in Japan and was sold out and still is sold out, you were wrong on all levels.



Glad to be proven wrong, it's good to see a new IP performing well.



Wyrdness said:
konnichiwa said:

I see =p pre orders were low in Japan tho and it hardly reached  more than 100k first week =p but what ever makes you feel good =p

What are you on about it sold 110k first week in Japan and was sold out and still is sold out, you were wrong on all levels.

What I am talking about? I litterally said at the moment of that post

Best scenario reach 100K first week except if surprisingly pre orders go up.
They did go up and barely reached more than 100K first week. 

And I am wrong on all levels I don't see it. Being still sold out has nothing to do with first week.  First week predictions shouldn't account for second week sales etc.






konnichiwa said:
Wyrdness said:

What are you on about it sold 110k first week in Japan and was sold out and still is sold out, you were wrong on all levels.

What I am talking about? I litterally said at the moment of that post

Best scenario reach 100K first week except if surprisingly pre orders go up.
They did go up and barely reached more than 100K first week. 

And I am wrong on all levels I don't see it. Being still sold out has nothing to do with first week.  First week predictions shouldn't account for second week sales etc.

In your original post you never mention first week either you just flat out said it'll only reach 100k.

You were wrong on both Xenoblade and Octopath both comfortably passed 1m.