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God of War sells 3.1m Copies in 3 Days, Fastest Selling PS4 Exclusive.

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IkePoR said:
LethalP said:

But it's literally a few weeks from passing the lifetime sales of GoW 3, the previous best seller in the series. So then using past games as any indication would be stupid. You seem to have it in your head that Horizon is a bigger franchise than GoW and that it will have better legs. It won't, not because I see the future, but because I have some common sense. GoW has already shown beyond doubt that it will be more successful than Horizon. In literally every single way.

There's an extremely thin chance I'm wrong though, so you can choose to hang on to that if you like.

Whether it passes the lifetime sales of GoW 3 or not isn't the point.  It was you invalidating the method of tracking the game by pointing at Horizon, which is absurd thinking, let alone method, as others have pointed out.  As I've said before, games have tendencies to drop in sales suddenly, which again would be more evidence against... your feelings?  Oh, your common sense.  I suppose the myriad of folks disagreeing with you have no common sense then?

 

You continue to sound ridiculous. You’ve had at least 3 people tell you how wrong you are and cite actual reasonable ways to provide a sales expectation for GoW, and yet you continue to base your prediction solely off the sales of the previous GoW games. As I said to you in the other thread:  Comparing the new GoW to the prior GoW games for sales is entirely nonsensical. 1. This is on the ps4 where, for various reasons, software consistently sells very well—MUCH better than on the ps3 (E.G. Uncharted 4 will end up around 13mil LT sales; highest selling Uncharted game on ps3 is around 7-8mil). 2. This new GoW is MARKEDLY different from the prior games:  It modernized its gameplay; got rid of the tasteless, excessive violence (as well as nudity); and delivered a high quality narrative with great characters (including Kratos—finally) and acting. 

It’s not just Horizon that we can look at to get an idea for GoW’s sales, as I said above:

Uncharted 4:  2.7 mil in 1 wk, 8.7 mil in 8mo (Jan 2017), likely around 10-11 mil now. Likely 12-14 mil lifetime. 

HZD:  2.6 mil in 2 wk, 7.6 mil in 1 year. Likely around 11 mil lifetime.

GoW:  3.1 mil in 3 days. And ontop of better initial sales than U4 and HZD, the legs are looking fantastic so far in the UK and Japan:  35% second week drop in each country, which is almost unheard of for a big, highly anticipated game. And for the UK, 35% drop for GoW compares to a 78% drop for U4 and 60% drop for HZD.

Your argument that GoW will have lifetime sales of 7-8 mil bc “its sales might drop off” is completely baseless to begin with. But the evidence we have thus far says the exact opposite. All signs point to good legs ontop of GoW’s unprecedented initial sales.



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pitzy272 said:
IkePoR said:

Whether it passes the lifetime sales of GoW 3 or not isn't the point.  It was you invalidating the method of tracking the game by pointing at Horizon, which is absurd thinking, let alone method, as others have pointed out.  As I've said before, games have tendencies to drop in sales suddenly, which again would be more evidence against... your feelings?  Oh, your common sense.  I suppose the myriad of folks disagreeing with you have no common sense then?

 

You continue to sound ridiculous. You’ve had at least 3 people tell you how wrong you are and cite actual reasonable ways to provide a sales expectation for GoW, and yet you continue to base your prediction solely off the sales of the previous GoW games. As I said to you in the other thread:  Comparing the new GoW to the prior GoW games for sales is entirely nonsensical. 1. This is on the ps4 where, for various reasons, software consistently sells very well—MUCH better than on the ps3 (E.G. Uncharted 4 will end up around 13mil LT sales; highest selling Uncharted game on ps3 is around 7-8mil). 2. This new GoW is MARKEDLY different from the prior games:  It modernized its gameplay; got rid of the tasteless, excessive violence (as well as nudity); and delivered a high quality narrative with great characters (including Kratos—finally) and acting. 

It’s not just Horizon that we can look at to get an idea for GoW’s sales, as I said above:

Uncharted 4:  2.7 mil in 1 wk, 8.7 mil in 8mo (Jan 2017), likely around 10-11 mil now. Likely 12-14 mil lifetime. 

HZD:  2.6 mil in 2 wk, 7.6 mil in 1 year. Likely around 11 mil lifetime.

GoW:  3.1 mil in 3 days. And ontop of better initial sales than U4 and HZD, the legs are looking fantastic so far in the UK and Japan:  35% second week drop in each country, which is almost unheard of for a big, highly anticipated game. And for the UK, 35% drop for GoW compares to a 78% drop for U4 and 60% drop for HZD.

Your argument that GoW will have lifetime sales of 7-8 mil bc “its sales might drop off” is completely baseless to begin with. But the evidence we have thus far says the exact opposite. All signs point to good legs ontop of GoW’s unprecedented initial sales.

Which is fine and dandy.  Congrats to those numbers.  That you have NOW.

I'll ask one question and I'll be finished.  Are you seriously going to sit here and say with your own words that the history of a franchise is a less reliable citation than "other games sell on this system"?



"You should be banned. Youre clearly flaming the president and even his brother who you know nothing about. Dont be such a partisan hack"

IkePoR said:
pitzy272 said:

 

You continue to sound ridiculous. You’ve had at least 3 people tell you how wrong you are and cite actual reasonable ways to provide a sales expectation for GoW, and yet you continue to base your prediction solely off the sales of the previous GoW games. As I said to you in the other thread:  Comparing the new GoW to the prior GoW games for sales is entirely nonsensical. 1. This is on the ps4 where, for various reasons, software consistently sells very well—MUCH better than on the ps3 (E.G. Uncharted 4 will end up around 13mil LT sales; highest selling Uncharted game on ps3 is around 7-8mil). 2. This new GoW is MARKEDLY different from the prior games:  It modernized its gameplay; got rid of the tasteless, excessive violence (as well as nudity); and delivered a high quality narrative with great characters (including Kratos—finally) and acting. 

It’s not just Horizon that we can look at to get an idea for GoW’s sales, as I said above:

Uncharted 4:  2.7 mil in 1 wk, 8.7 mil in 8mo (Jan 2017), likely around 10-11 mil now. Likely 12-14 mil lifetime. 

HZD:  2.6 mil in 2 wk, 7.6 mil in 1 year. Likely around 11 mil lifetime.

GoW:  3.1 mil in 3 days. And ontop of better initial sales than U4 and HZD, the legs are looking fantastic so far in the UK and Japan:  35% second week drop in each country, which is almost unheard of for a big, highly anticipated game. And for the UK, 35% drop for GoW compares to a 78% drop for U4 and 60% drop for HZD.

Your argument that GoW will have lifetime sales of 7-8 mil bc “its sales might drop off” is completely baseless to begin with. But the evidence we have thus far says the exact opposite. All signs point to good legs ontop of GoW’s unprecedented initial sales.

Which is fine and dandy.  Congrats to those numbers.  That you have NOW.

I'll ask one question and I'll be finished.  Are you seriously going to sit here and say with your own words that the history of a franchise is a less reliable citation than "other games sell on this system"?

Using your logic Horizon should never have sold over 7.5 million its first year, because a first party Playstation game has never done that for a new franchise.
Using your logic, Uncharted 4 should have sold around 5-6 million instead of the 10+ it did because that's what the previous games did.
Using your logic, Gran Turismo Sport should be well on its way to around 10 million copies sold instead of the 4-5 it likely will do.

So, unless you want to argue that God of War is going to go from 3.1 million in 3 days to selling less than 2 million over the rest of the PS4's life, perhaps you shouldn't rely too heavily on this franchise's previous sales.



GribbleGrunger said:
I predicted 3.5m in the first week. Chuffed with myself.

This is just its first 3 days. I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if it did upwards of 4 million in its first week. 



0331 Happiness is a belt-fed weapon

IkePoR said:
pitzy272 said:

 

You continue to sound ridiculous. You’ve had at least 3 people tell you how wrong you are and cite actual reasonable ways to provide a sales expectation for GoW, and yet you continue to base your prediction solely off the sales of the previous GoW games. As I said to you in the other thread:  Comparing the new GoW to the prior GoW games for sales is entirely nonsensical. 1. This is on the ps4 where, for various reasons, software consistently sells very well—MUCH better than on the ps3 (E.G. Uncharted 4 will end up around 13mil LT sales; highest selling Uncharted game on ps3 is around 7-8mil). 2. This new GoW is MARKEDLY different from the prior games:  It modernized its gameplay; got rid of the tasteless, excessive violence (as well as nudity); and delivered a high quality narrative with great characters (including Kratos—finally) and acting. 

It’s not just Horizon that we can look at to get an idea for GoW’s sales, as I said above:

Uncharted 4:  2.7 mil in 1 wk, 8.7 mil in 8mo (Jan 2017), likely around 10-11 mil now. Likely 12-14 mil lifetime. 

HZD:  2.6 mil in 2 wk, 7.6 mil in 1 year. Likely around 11 mil lifetime.

GoW:  3.1 mil in 3 days. And ontop of better initial sales than U4 and HZD, the legs are looking fantastic so far in the UK and Japan:  35% second week drop in each country, which is almost unheard of for a big, highly anticipated game. And for the UK, 35% drop for GoW compares to a 78% drop for U4 and 60% drop for HZD.

Your argument that GoW will have lifetime sales of 7-8 mil bc “its sales might drop off” is completely baseless to begin with. But the evidence we have thus far says the exact opposite. All signs point to good legs ontop of GoW’s unprecedented initial sales.

Which is fine and dandy.  Congrats to those numbers.  That you have NOW.

I'll ask one question and I'll be finished.  Are you seriously going to sit here and say with your own words that the history of a franchise is a less reliable citation than "other games sell on this system"?

 As of right now, yes it is. Sony’s franchises have for the most part been performing extremely well this gen. Better than they usually do. As pitzy stated, games like UC4 and Horizon saw somewhat sharp drop offs post launch, but still went on to do extremely well. GoW topping both is a fairly decent indicator that even if it sees a sharp drop off, it will also do well. Even if the franchise has a history of numbers nosediving, none of them have ever even come close to these launch numbers before, so it’s incredibly unlikely that this game will somehow fall flat before it can pass GoW3 (kindof a moot point, since there’s no way it already hasn’t). 

 

Point is, people are arguing with you because your intent is to downplay what should be considered fantastic numbers. I don’t think any non-Nintendo exclusive has done this many in such a short period of time since Halo 3. 



0331 Happiness is a belt-fed weapon

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BraLoD said:
LethalP said:

Well how do you gauge hype? Looking at Youtube trailers:

Spider-Man - E3 2016 - 16 million views (103k likes)
                        E3 2017 - 30 million views (239k likes)

Horizon        - E3 2015 - 6 million views (76k likes)
                      - E3 2016 - 6.6 million views (54k likes)

It's not the only metric of measure, but your whole thing saying Spider-Man isn't on their level hype wise seems a bit strange? Then there's the notion that Spider-Man might do an Arkham City and be critically acclaimed, which will help sales a lot.

"I honestly don't see where are you coming from to think an Insomniac Spidey game will sell 10M copies out of the blue, it's like expecting Detroit to go and do it because it looks AAA". First off, who expected Guerilla Games to make something that would sell 7.6 million in it's first year? Killzone was no world beater. And I consider Insomniac a better developer than Guerilla. PS4 games with enough hype break peoples expectations, and Spider-Man has a lot of hype, unless you're living under a rock and can't see it. Detroit isn't in the same universe hype wise.

Sure, using Youtube trailers views to compare a pure videogame IP with a hugely popular movies character is somehow a metric to base videogame sales at.

As we can see Horizon last E3 video had 6.6M views and it sold 7.6M in a year, so as Spider Man had 30M views on its last E3 video we can expect it to sell 31M copies within a year, how could I miss it?

I hope I remember this thread in a year or so, I'll be happy if I'm wrong but there is not a single chance SpiderMan will sell close to 10M.

Why though? That's the question. Why is, say, Horizon a bigger deal than Spider-Man? Any perticular reason? Just a clear answer, no bullshit.

 



DialgaMarine said:
GribbleGrunger said:
I predicted 3.5m in the first week. Chuffed with myself.

This is just its first 3 days. I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if it did upwards of 4 million in its first week. 

 

good forecast, GribbleGrunge.

Yes, thats right - 3,1 million in 3 Days.



Death Stranding, PS4-Release: November 8! The Last of Us 2, February 21 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XvG-EpPoCCA


LethalP said:
BraLoD said:

Sure, using Youtube trailers views to compare a pure videogame IP with a hugely popular movies character is somehow a metric to base videogame sales at.

As we can see Horizon last E3 video had 6.6M views and it sold 7.6M in a year, so as Spider Man had 30M views on its last E3 video we can expect it to sell 31M copies within a year, how could I miss it?

I hope I remember this thread in a year or so, I'll be happy if I'm wrong but there is not a single chance SpiderMan will sell close to 10M.

Why though? That's the question. Why is, say, Horizon a bigger deal than Spider-Man? Any perticular reason? Just a clear answer, no bullshit.

Horizon Zero Dawn was PlayStation game of the year for 2017.

It was the game to move the technology foward, make a point on what you can get on PS4 and a massive project that spawnned 5 years of dedication resulting in one of Sony finest titles.

This year that's God of War, Spider Man is not in the same league game wise, it's not the game to be talked about, it's another probably good lower tier game.

It takes a fucking lot to put ab exclusive game on track to break 10M sales, Sony had just a single franchise able to do it up until 2012, MS still just has one, and both of those are not hitting that anymore bscause they could not meet the massive level of excitement a game needs to have, specially an exclusive, to get close/break pass that kind of achievement.

You guys are expecting a potentially great common game, in the sense there are a decent bunch of games that go that way, as Killzone and Infamous for example, to perform like the best of the best of what Sony has been able to achieve with massive projects that steal the scene in every possible way.

Not the same level, not gonna happen, even as I would like it if the game deserves it.



Congrats to SM, well deserved.



”Every great dream begins with a dreamer. Always remember, you have within you the strength, the patience, and the passion to reach for the stars to change the world.”

Harriet Tubman.

Think GOW is a lock on for 10m now no doubt.
Spiderman I think will do well just because we are at a stage where super hero movies are doing well, I think thats a 7.5m easy.
Detroit is a 5m-7m range imho. it will do very well for the type of game it is. With HR doing 5 odd million, good chance it will do 6m easily.



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