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In progress NPD predicting tool

Forums - Sales Discussion - In progress NPD predicting tool

The Switch Lite has started its preorders, and it's doing very well: all 4 models for instance are in the Amazon Top 10 right now, with the first one (the Pokemon special edition) already sold out.

So Juli and August will probably be pretty bad for the Switch on the tool, but I don't know how far it will affect the NPD sales, though.



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07/31/19 :

- Amazon :

1 (N) Nintendo Switch Lite Zacian and Zamazenta - 3 (N) - Unavailable - November 8th
2 (N) - Nintendo Switch Lite Turquoise - 4 (N) - 199.00$ - September 20th
3 (N) - Nintendo Switch Lite Gray - 8 (N) - 199.00$ - September 20th
4 (N) - Nintendo Switch Lite Yellow - 10 (N) - 199.00$ - September 20th
5 (-4) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 34 (+6) - ?
6 (-4) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 58 (-4) - 299.00$
7 (-4) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 74 (-14) - 368.89$
8 (-4) - XBox One S 1Tb AD - 88 (+10) - 206.75$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 84 + 27 = 111 points (-2) ; XBO : 13 points (+10) ; NS : 43 points (-4)


- Best Buy :

1 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 6 (-2) - 249.99$
2 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 7 (-4) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 10 (-2) - 299.99$
4 (R) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb DoP 2019 - 15 (R) - 249.99$
5 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 20 (-10) - 399.99$
6 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb The Division 2 - 49 (+2) - 299.99$
7 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb AD - 61 (+4) - 249.99$

Out of Top 100 :

7 (-1) - XBox One X 1Tb The Division 2 - 97 (-15) - 499.99$

PS4 : 185 + 140 + 115 = 440 points (+80) ; XBO : 54 + 40 = 94 points (+4) ; NS : 180 + 165 = 345 points (-30)


- Gamestop :

1 (N) Nintendo Switch Lite Zacian and Zamazenta - 3 (N) - Unavailable - November 8th
2 (N) - Nintendo Switch Lite Turquoise - 10 (N) - 199.00$ - September 20th
3 (N) - Nintendo Switch Lite Gray - 13 (N) - 199.00$ - September 20th
4 (N) - Nintendo Switch Lite Yellow - 14 (N) - 199.00$ - September 20th
5 (-4) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 46 (+8)
6 (-2) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 130 (+48)
7 (-5) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 145 (-5)
8 (-3) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 196 (-2)

Out of Top 100 :

3 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb DoP 2019 - 147 (-6)

PS4 : 36 points (-3) ; XBO : 28 points (-3) ; NS : 106 + 3 = 109 points (+7)

Overall :

1 - NS : 212.4 points (-23.6) ; Month Average : 290.8 points/day ; 1.0
2 (+1) - PS4 : 212.8 points (+49.6) ; Month Average : 206.6 points/day ; 0.71 (+0.04)
3 (-1) - XBO : 74.4 points (+33.8) ; Month Average : 138.9 points/day ; 0.48 (-0.05)


Spreadsheet is back! PC still out though...
Those NS Lite preorders will be tough for the tool, I am planning to use the same formula I use for promotions but I am not sure...
Also, did we get some kind of numbers for June ?



It'll be weird to track these Switch Lite SKU's ...



Switch Friend Code : 3905-6122-2909 

Also, did we get some kind of numbers for June ?

Nope, I think we'll never get'em. NPD's data coming faster than before and this prevents leaks, I think



Zanark best Inazuma Eleven pg

08/01/19 :

- Amazon :

1 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Lite Turquoise - 8 (-4) - 199.00$ - September 20th
2 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Lite Gray - 19 (-11) - 199.00$ - September 20th
3 (-2) Nintendo Switch Lite Zacian and Zamazenta - 24 (-21) - Unavailable - November 8th
4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Lite Yellow - 27 (-17) - 199.00$ - September 20th
5 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 34 (-) - ?
6 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 43 (+15) - 299.00$
7 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 69 (+5) - 368.89$
8 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb AD - 96 (-8) - 206.75$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 84 + 32 = 116 points (+5) ; XBO : 5 points (-8) ; NS : 66 points (+23)


- Best Buy :

1 (N) Nintendo Switch Lite Zacian and Zamazenta - 2 (N) - 199.99$ - November 8th
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 4 (+3) - 299.99$
3 (-2) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 5 (+1) - 249.99$
4 (N) - Nintendo Switch Lite Turquoise - 7 (N) - 199.00$ - September 20th
5 (N) - Nintendo Switch Lite Gray - 10 (N) - 199.00$ - September 20th
6 (-3) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 13 (-3) - 299.99$
7 (N) - Nintendo Switch Lite Yellow - 14 (N) - 199.00$ - September 20th
8 (-3) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 21 (-1) - 399.99$
9 (-5) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb DoP 2019 - 28 (-13) - 249.99$
10 (-4) - XBox One S 1Tb The Division 2 - 64 (-15) - 299.99$
11 (-4) - XBox One S 1Tb AD - 69 (-8) - 249.99$
12 (R) - XBox One X 1Tb The Division 2 - 74 (R) - 499.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 190 + 110 + 96 = 396 points (-44) ; XBO : 37 + 32 + 27 = 96 points (+2) ; NS : 195 + 150 = 345 points (-)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) Nintendo Switch Lite Zacian and Zamazenta - 2 (-) - Unavailable - November 8th
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Lite Turquoise - 9 (+1) - 199.00$ - September 20th
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Lite Gray - 11 (+2) - 199.00$ - September 20th
4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Lite Yellow - 13 (+1) - 199.00$ - September 20th
5 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 36 (+10)
6 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 129 (+1)
7 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 138 (+7)
8 (R) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb DoP 2019 - 177 (R)
9 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 191 (+5)
10 (R) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 199 (R)

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 36 + 12 = 48 points (+12) ; XBO : 32 points (+4) ; NS : 125 + 5 = 130 points (+21)

Overall :

1 - NS : 251.8 points (+39.4) ; Month Average : 289.3 points/day ; 1.0
2 (+1) - PS4 : 220.0 points (+7.2) ; Month Average : 207.1 points/day ; 0.72 (+0.01)
3 (-1) - XBO : 71.8 points (-2.6) ; Month Average : 136.4 points/day ; 0.47 (-0.01)



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08/02/19 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Lite Turquoise - 24 (-16) - 199.00$ - September 20th
2 (+3) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 30 (+4) - ?
3 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Lite Gray - 34 (-15) - 199.00$ - September 20th
4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Lite Yellow - 42 (-15) - 199.00$ - September 20th
5 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 44 (-1) - 299.00$
6 (-3) Nintendo Switch Lite Zacian and Zamazenta - 54 (-30) - Unavailable - November 8th
7 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 83 (-14) - 368.89$
8 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb AD - 97 (-1) - 206.75$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 92 + 18 = 110 points (-6) ; XBO : 4 points (-1) ; NS : 64 points (-2)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) Nintendo Switch Lite Zacian and Zamazenta - 2 (-) - 199.99$ - November 8th
2 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 5 (-) - 249.99$
3 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 7 (-3) - 299.99$
4 (+2) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 16 (-3) - 299.99$
5 (+3) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 17 (+4) - 399.99$
6 (-2) - Nintendo Switch Lite Turquoise - 26 (-19) - 199.00$ - September 20th
7 (+2) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb DoP 2019 - 35 (-7) - 249.99$
8 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Lite Yellow - 38 (-24) - 199.00$ - September 20th
9 (-4) - Nintendo Switch Lite Gray - 41 (-31) - 199.00$ - September 20th
10 (+1) - XBox One S 1Tb AD - 58 (+11) - 249.99$
11 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb The Division 2 - 61 (+3) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

12 (R) - XBox One X 1Tb The Division 2 - 74 (R) - 499.99$

PS4 : 190 + 130 + 82 = 402 points (+6) ; XBO : 43 + 40 = 83 points (-13) ; NS : 180 + 135 = 315 points (-30)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) Nintendo Switch Lite Zacian and Zamazenta - 3 (-1) - Unavailable - November 8th
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Lite Turquoise - 11 (-2) - 199.00$ - September 20th
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Lite Gray - 13 (-2) - 199.00$ - September 20th
4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Lite Yellow - 14 (-1) - 199.00$ - September 20th
5 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 43 (-7)
6 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 65 (+64)
7 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 140 (-2)
8 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 167 (+24)
9 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb DoP 2019 - 176 (+1)
10 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 195 (+4)

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 86 + 13 + 3 = 102 points (+54) ; XBO : 31 points (-1) ; NS : 108 + 17 = 125 points (-5)

Overall :

1 - NS : 239.2 points (-12.6) ; Month Average : 287.4 points/day ; 1.0
2 (+1) - PS4 : 270.4 points (+50.4) ; Month Average : 209.4 points/day ; 0.73 (+0.01)
3 (-1) - XBO : 66.0 points (-5.8) ; Month Average : 133.7 points/day ; 0.47 (-)



Well, that was pretty short for the Lite, I expected it to stay on top a while longer than it did...



08/04/19 :

- Amazon :

1 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 33 (-3) - ?
2 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Lite Turquoise - 40 (-16) - 199.00$ - September 20th
3 (+2) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 41 (+3) - 299.00$
4 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Lite Gray - 57 (-23) - 199.00$ - September 20th
5 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Lite Yellow - 71 (-29) - 199.00$ - September 20th
6 (+1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 86 (-3) - 368.89$
7 (+1) - XBox One S 1Tb AD - 97 (-) - 206.75$

Out of Top 100 :

6 (-3) Nintendo Switch Lite Zacian and Zamazenta - 54 (-30) - Unavailable - November 8th

PS4 : 86 + 15 = 101 points (-9) ; XBO : 4 points (-) ; NS : 70 points (+6)


- Best Buy :

1 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 5 (-) - 249.99$
2 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 6 (+1) - 299.99$
3 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 10 (+6) - 299.99$
4 (-3) Nintendo Switch Lite Zacian and Zamazenta - 15 (-13) - 199.99$ - November 8th
5 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 20 (-3) - 399.99$
6 (+5) - XBox One S 1Tb The Division 2 - 39 (+22) - 299.99$
7 (+3) - XBox One S 1Tb AD - 50 (+8) - 249.99$
8 (R) - XBox One X 1Tb The Division 2 - 74 (R) - 499.99$

Out of Top 100 :

6 (-2) - Nintendo Switch Lite Turquoise - 26 (-19) - 199.00$ - September 20th
7 (+2) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb DoP 2019 - 35 (-7) - 249.99$
8 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Lite Yellow - 38 (-24) - 199.00$ - September 20th
9 (-4) - Nintendo Switch Lite Gray - 41 (-31) - 199.00$ - September 20th

PS4 : 190 + 115 = 305 points (-97) ; XBO : 74 + 52 + 27 = 153 points (+70) ; NS : 185 + 165 = 350 points (+35)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) Nintendo Switch Lite Zacian and Zamazenta - 11 (-8) - Unavailable - November 8th
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Lite Turquoise - 16 (-5) - 199.00$ - September 20th
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Lite Gray - 19 (-6) - 199.00$ - September 20th
4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Lite Yellow - 22 (-8) - 199.00$ - September 20th
5 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 35 (+30)
6 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 40 (+3)
7 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 150 (+17)
8 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 160 (-20)
9 (+1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 193 (+2)

Out of Top 100 :

9 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb DoP 2019 - 176 (+1)

PS4 : 125 + 4 = 129 points (+27) ; XBO : 21 points (-10) ; NS : 115 + 26 = 141 points (+16)

Overall :

1 (-) - PS4 : 270.8 points (-) ; Month Average : 270.8 points/day ; 1.0
2 (-) - NS : 267.0 points (-) ; Month Average : 267.0 points/day ; 0.99
3 (-) - XBO : 71.2 points (-) ; Month Average : 71.2 points/day ; 0.26

First Update for August



July Final Graph :



1 - NS : 286.7 points/day ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 211.7 points/day ; 0.74
3 - XBO : 131.5 points/day ; 0.46 (-)



Symbios63 said:
July Final Graph :



1 - NS : 286.7 points/day ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 211.7 points/day ; 0.74
3 - XBO : 131.5 points/day ; 0.46 (-)

So, with the Neon Switch not being counted for the greater part of the month on Amazon, I'd say the real ratio is actually a bit different, with the Switch probably deserving more of a low to mid 300's score if those would have shown up in the top 100.