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In progress NPD predicting tool

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The_Liquid_Laser said:
Normally after a console has been out for 5-6 years like the PS4 and XB1, the price is below $300. If a person is willing to pay $300 for one of these systems, then they likely already have one. This is the time period to try to see to late adopters who want a cheaper console.

Basically these consoles need a price cut. I'm not even particularly a fan of either one, but this type of business just seems crazy to me. I doubt they would be selling at a loss at $250-$200 and they already sell at this price during the holidays anyway. Basically their current model is to sell most of their hardware during the holiday season, because that is when these old consoles are actually at a decent price. Why not just go ahead and make the price cut permanent?

In the case of the PS4, I think Sony is just content with the amount of sales they are getting right now and are not willing to sacrifice profits in order to expand their install base anymore. I mean, the thing already outsold their previous console by more than 10% and it still has a couple of years left in the tank. So I´m pretty sure it has already exceeded their expectations and then some.

MS is a lot harder to read though. I mean, with all their talk about "games as a service" you would think they would be more interested in expanding the install base as much as possible. I mean, at the end of the day, the more people with consoles in their homes, the more people would be available to sign their gamepass service. Maybe they believe it wouldn't make much difference? That would be a weird way to look at business.



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wombat123 said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:
Normally after a console has been out for 5-6 years like the PS4 and XB1, the price is below $300. If a person is willing to pay $300 for one of these systems, then they likely already have one. This is the time period to try to see to late adopters who want a cheaper console.

Basically these consoles need a price cut. I'm not even particularly a fan of either one, but this type of business just seems crazy to me. I doubt they would be selling at a loss at $250-$200 and they already sell at this price during the holidays anyway. Basically their current model is to sell most of their hardware during the holiday season, because that is when these old consoles are actually at a decent price. Why not just go ahead and make the price cut permanent?

Maybe they want to keep the price as close as possible to the PS5/Scarlett in hopes that the difference will be small enough that late adopters skip the PS4/XB1 and go straight to the 9th gen consoles with backwards compatibility.

This is a good argument for why they wouldn't drop the Pro and X models.  It's not so great an argument for the base models.


chakkra said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:
Normally after a console has been out for 5-6 years like the PS4 and XB1, the price is below $300. If a person is willing to pay $300 for one of these systems, then they likely already have one. This is the time period to try to see to late adopters who want a cheaper console.

Basically these consoles need a price cut. I'm not even particularly a fan of either one, but this type of business just seems crazy to me. I doubt they would be selling at a loss at $250-$200 and they already sell at this price during the holidays anyway. Basically their current model is to sell most of their hardware during the holiday season, because that is when these old consoles are actually at a decent price. Why not just go ahead and make the price cut permanent?

In the case of the PS4, I think Sony is just content with the amount of sales they are getting right now and are not willing to sacrifice profits in order to expand their install base anymore. I mean, the thing already outsold their previous console by more than 10% and it still has a couple of years left in the tank. So I´m pretty sure it has already exceeded their expectations and then some.

MS is a lot harder to read though. I mean, with all their talk about "games as a service" you would think they would be more interested in expanding the install base as much as possible. I mean, at the end of the day, the more people with consoles in their homes, the more people would be available to sign their gamepass service. Maybe they believe it wouldn't make much difference? That would be a weird way to look at business.

I agree with what you are saying about Microsoft, but it also applies to Sony.  Sony also makes a lot of money off of subscriptions, not to mention digital downloads and physical sales.

This is why the "sacrifice profits" argument no longer applies.  Sony is at a point where they sacrifice profits by not dropping the price.  They make $0 in profits off of the people that they don't sell to.  Keeping the price high was a good argument last year, because PS4 had an extremely strong software line-up last year.  They were selling well even though they didn't need to drop the price.  

PS4 is not selling well anymore.  Software line-up is not so hot this year, especially compared to last year.  It is time to drop the price.


thismeintiel said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:
Normally after a console has been out for 5-6 years like the PS4 and XB1, the price is below $300. If a person is willing to pay $300 for one of these systems, then they likely already have one. This is the time period to try to see to late adopters who want a cheaper console.

Basically these consoles need a price cut. I'm not even particularly a fan of either one, but this type of business just seems crazy to me. I doubt they would be selling at a loss at $250-$200 and they already sell at this price during the holidays anyway. Basically their current model is to sell most of their hardware during the holiday season, because that is when these old consoles are actually at a decent price. Why not just go ahead and make the price cut permanent?

The XBO has been available for $220-$230 with a game/s for months. A price cut isn't helping it at all. 

Right now, I think Sony is just trying to pull in as much profit off of ok console sales as possible. I have no doubt they will drop it to $249 later this year.

I am really surprised Sony hasn't dropped the price yet.  We'll see how long it takes them to do it.  It's been so long since their last price cut, that I really have no clue how long they will take for their next one.





I agree with what you are saying about Microsoft, but it also applies to Sony.  Sony also makes a lot of money off of subscriptions, not to mention digital downloads and physical sales.


This is why the "sacrifice profits" argument no longer applies.  Sony is at a point where they sacrifice profits by not dropping the price.  They make $0 in profits off of the people that they don't sell to.  Keeping the price high was a good argument last year, because PS4 had an extremely strong software line-up last year.  They were selling well even though they didn't need to drop the price.  

PS4 is not selling well anymore.  Software line-up is not so hot this year, especially compared to last year.  It is time to drop the price.


I am really surprised Sony hasn't dropped the price yet.  We'll see how long it takes them to do it.  It's been so long since their last price cut, that I really have no clue how long they will take for their next one.

I agree that there is an argument to be made about "bigger install base is always better" but I think it is obvious Sony just doesn't see it that way at this moment. I mean, they didn't even drop the price for the PS4 Slim during the "Days of Play". That right there should tell you that they just aren't interested.



06/27/19 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 14 (-1) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 44 (-1) - 299.00$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 76 (-) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

4 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 82 (+5) - 379.99$

PS4 : 25 points (-19) ; XBO : 0 points (-) ; NS : 145 + 64 = 209 points (-7)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 2 (-1) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 7 (-2) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 14 (-3) - 399.99$
4 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 18 (-3) - 299.99$
5 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb DoP 2019 - 24 (-11) - 299.99$
6 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite BR SE - 66 (-35) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

7 (+1) - XBox One S 1Tb AD - 51 (-5) - 249.99$
8 (-1) - XBox One X 1Tb The Division 2 - 54 (-11) - 499.99$
9 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb The Division 2 - 62 (-6) - 299.99$

PS4 : 145 + 125 + 104 = 374 points (-76) ; XBO : 35 points (-191) ; NS : 205 + 180 = 385 points (-15)


- Gamestop :

1 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 52 (-12)
2 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb DoP 2019 - 64 (+1)
3 (+2) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 67 (+11)
4 (-3) - Nintendo Switch Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu - 69 (-35)
5 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite BR SE - 78 (-11)
6 (R) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 White - 165 (R)
7 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 193 (-69)

Out of Top 100 :

7 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu + Pokeball Charger - 128 (-27)

PS4 : 88 + 4 = 92 points (-33) ; XBO : 74 points (-10) ; NS : 100 + 84 + 82 = 266 points (-90)

Overall :

1 - NS : 510.2 points (-98.6) ; Month Average : 472.7 points/day ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 186.8 points (-63.4) ; Month Average : 303.2 points/day ; 0.64 (-0.03)
3 - XBO : 105.3 points (-62.7) ; Month Average : 180.9 points/day ; 0.38 (-0.02)



At this rate the gap between Switch and PS4 will be even bigger than last month despite the days of play promotion.



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Symbios - It looks like in the June graph that you have space for 4 weeks but June is a 5 week month for NPD.



SW-3707-5131-3911

kenjab said:
Symbios - It looks like in the June graph that you have space for 4 weeks but June is a 5 week month for NPD.

Yup, NPD logic is special. It seems more logical that the June period ends on June 29th because the following week (June 30th to July 6th) is almost exclusively July, but it will be counted towards the June period anyway.

General reminder about NPD tracking periods:

1. The last month of every quarter is always a five week period. March, June, September and December.

2. All other months, except January, are always four week periods. February, April, May, July, August, October, November.

3. January is the month reserved for a correction that occurs after either five or six years based on a specific condition. January is usually a four week period, but if said four weeks leave out 4+ January days at their end, then January will be extended to five weeks for that year.

It's because of this set of rules that every now and then some puzzling tracking period timeframes occur, such as June 30th to July 6th being part of June instead of July.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

One week until this month closure which is probably dominated by the Switch once again !



Switch Friend Code : 3905-6122-2909 

At this rate Switch will end up with double the points of the PS4



06/29/19 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 15 (-1) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 43 (+1) - 299.00$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 67 (+9) - 299.99$
4 (R) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft - 100 (R) - 214.62$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 34 points (+9) ; XBO : 1 points (+1) ; NS : 140 + 66 = 206 points (-3)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 3 (-1) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 7 (-) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 12 (+2) - 399.99$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 15 (+3) - 299.99$
5 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb DoP 2019 - 23 (+1) - 299.99$
6 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite BR SE - 52 (+14) - 299.99$
7 (R) - XBox One S 1Tb AD - 100 (R) - 249.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 155 + 140 + 106 = 401 points (+27) ; XBO : 49 + 1 = 50 points (+15) ; NS : 200 + 180 = 380 points (-5)


- Gamestop :

1 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb DoP 2019 - 31 (+33)
2 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 50 (+2)
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 55 (+12)
4 (+3) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 156 (+37)
5 (+1) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 White - 167 (-2)

Out of Top 100 :

4 (-3) - Nintendo Switch Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu - 69 (-35)
5 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite BR SE - 78 (-11)

PS4 : 135 + 23 = 158 points (+66) ; XBO : 17 points (-57) ; NS : 102 + 96 = 198 points (-68)

Overall :

1 - NS : 438.8 points (-71.4) ; Month Average : 471.4 points/day ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 265.4 points (+78.6) ; Month Average : 299.6 points/day ; 0.64 (-)
3 - XBO : 36.1 points (-69.2) ; Month Average : 172.8 points/day ; 0.37 (-0.01)


Graph has been changed. Thanks for the info.