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Super Mario Oddessy+Switch Sales Prediction: NPD

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SMO - 800k
Switch - 450k



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SMO - 550k
Switch - 400k



SMO - 700k
Switch - 350k



palou said:
Ryng_Tolu said:

For have an idea of how Mario usually perform in USA:

[SEP 1996 ]Super Mario 64 (1 week) - 300,000
[AUG 2002] Super Mario Sunshine (1 week)- 350,000
[NOV 2007] Super Mario Galaxy (3 weeks) - 1,120,000
[MAY 2010] Super Mario Galaxy 2 (1 week) - 564,000

BONUS:
[NOV 2011] Super Mario 3DLand (4 weeks) - 625,000
[NOV 2013] Super Mario 3DWorld (2 weeks) - 215,000

Nintendo has *considerably* increased its expenses on advetisement recently though, which leads me to believe that Odyseey will be a lot more front-loaded.

They have increased their advertising effort ever since MK8s original WiiU release. They doubled down on Splatoons release and ever since the Switch was announced they've been hitting it out of the park with their commercials.

This hasn't hurt either the Switches legs, nor any of the games that released on it. Every game that is historicaly expected to have killer legs, has them. A 30 year trend is not going to break because of better advertisements.



1M SMO
400k Switch



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tbone51 said:
palou said:

Nintendo has *considerably* increased its expenses on advetisement recently though, which leads me to believe that Odyseey will be a lot more front-loaded.

Yeahhh ibthink its the opposite. Switch games are having crazy legs. Look at splat2 and especially botw/mk8d

 

I look at the games Splatoon in Japan, Mario Kart and Zelda in the US, and I can see that we've got first-week attach rates of 56%, 40%, and pretty much 100%, respectively. That's what I would call front-loaded. Doesn't mean that they won't sell in the long run, but Nintendo is generating hype with effective advertisement (and just generally, better circulation of information, in the modern era) that creates demand for their games on launch to a scale that hasn't been seen before. 



Bet with PeH: 

I win if Arms sells over 700 000 units worldwide by the end of 2017.

Bet with WagnerPaiva:

 

I win if Emmanuel Macron wins the french presidential election May 7th 2017.

SMO: 835k
Switch: 425k



Super Mario Odyssey: 930.000 (digital/bundle+retail)
Switch: 525.000



700k-800k SMO
500k Switch



palou said:
tbone51 said:

Yeahhh ibthink its the opposite. Switch games are having crazy legs. Look at splat2 and especially botw/mk8d

 

I look at the games Splatoon in Japan, Mario Kart and Zelda in the US, and I can see that we've got first-week attach rates of 56%, 40%, and pretty much 100%, respectively. That's what I would call front-loaded. Doesn't mean that they won't sell in the long run, but Nintendo is generating hype with effective advertisement (and just generally, better circulation of information, in the modern era) that creates demand for their games on launch to a scale that hasn't been seen before. 

Using attach rates have nothing to do with legs my friend. Zelda could on and sell 30mil and switch 100mil and your logic says it was front loaded because it was 100% at one time of its life.