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July 2017 NPD Thread! Switch #1

Forums - Sales Discussion - July 2017 NPD Thread! Switch #1

Seems like we won't get XB1 numbers after all.



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Well this is absolutely disappointing and since our only source has been chased away, we're back in the dark.



aLkaLiNE said:
poklane said:

Best GAF prediction: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=245181399&postcount=45

[NSW] 220K
[PS4] 225K
[XB1] 115K

2nd best GAF prediction: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=244891287&postcount=14

[NSW] 243K
[PS4] 219K
[XB1] 128K

The guy who makes the rankings for best predictions is refusing to go beyond the top 2 to prevents numbers from being calculated, but maybe someone can do something with the above numbers. Doubt it though.

I don't understand how the ranking system works over there or how you can deduce certain numbers through having other constants (such as the ps4/switch figures for that month) but is it reasonable to assume we're somewhere in the ballpark for ~120k +/-10% for X1?

I would analyse the sum and distribution.

560k total for 1st

590k for 2nd

official is 222+217+x = 439+x

so let's say on this X could be 121k to 151k

on the individual

220k vs 222k -> 1% error       225k vs 217k -> 3,7%    so X1 with 5% to 10% margin of error -> 103,5- 109k to 121k-126,5k... but should converge to 115k

243k vs 222k -> 9,5% error    219k vs 217k -> 1% and X1 with 2% to 5% margin (to have a similar sum of errors) -> 121,5-125,5k to 130,5-134,5k

on distribution

220:225:115 ->1.91:1,96:1

243:219:128 ->1,9:1,7:1

222:217:x to have something like 1,91 on Switch would mean -> 116k -> 1,91:1,87:1

                  to have something like 1,7 on PS4 would mean -> 127k-> 1,75:1,7:1

When putting the 3 scenarios for choosing the ranking I would say the best guess is 115-125k for X1. Which is a 27-33% drop YOY.

 



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

DonFerrari said:
aLkaLiNE said:

I don't understand how the ranking system works over there or how you can deduce certain numbers through having other constants (such as the ps4/switch figures for that month) but is it reasonable to assume we're somewhere in the ballpark for ~120k +/-10% for X1?

I would analyse the sum and distribution.

(moot maths)

poklane said that the NeoGAF rankings for this month are solely determined by how close the predictions were to actual Switch and PS4 numbers. In other words, the XB1 predictions were completely ignored and this month someone could have been a top ranked predictor with 220k Switch, 220k PS4 and 500k XB1.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

RolStoppable said:
DonFerrari said:

I would analyse the sum and distribution.

(moot maths)

poklane said that the NeoGAF rankings for this month are solely determined by how close the predictions were to actual Switch and PS4 numbers. In other words, the XB1 predictions were completely ignored and this month someone could have been a top ranked predictor with 220k Switch, 220k PS4 and 500k XB1.

And there goes nothing kkkk.

So we can keep with that information from before that X1 sold less than 3DS and all be happy.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

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Shadow1980 said:
VideoGameAccountant said:

Do you the source of the numbers. I ask because it seems odd that Q2 sales for 2017 would be so much higher than 2016. Sony noted that Q1 (Apr 1 - Jun 30) PS4 sales were down slightly. Looking at hardware spending, the % increase was marginal those months (least May) and the NPD analyst quoted Switch was the reason for the increase. Shouldn't there be a flattening, not this massive jump in June?

Numbers were catalogued from prior threads. I'm pretty sure all the numbers came from Aquamarine and librarian13579.

Sony's numbers were global shipments, not U.S. sales. It's been pretty well established for a long time now that shipments ≠ sales.

According to NPD, the PS4 sold 381k in the U.S. in June, up a good bit from last year. Overall, Q2 sales in the U.S. were up by 158k units, or 25.6%.

In Japan, sales were very slightly down YoY. Media Create had the PS4 at 294,000 for weeks 14-26 last year, but only 292,368 for the same period this year, a dip of only 1632 units, or only 0.56%.

As for Europe and smaller markets outside the NA/Japan/Europe triad, I don't know, but if actual unit sales (as opposed to shipments, which did decline by 5.7%) were down YoY for the April-June period, the loss had to come from outside the U.S. and Japan.

Here is where I'm concerned about the data. If Sony is saying there is a decline, we should be able to find that decline in the individual regional markets. Japan had a decline but America increased based on what said. We don't know Europe. And America is one of the largest regions. So if we have Japan declining slightly and America having its strongest year (if I understand correctly), then wouldn't we see worldwide shipments go up? Shipments should be close to sales because Sony doesn't ship millions of these units at one time. It would be throughout the entire quarter. So while some difference could be due to big sales made at the end of the quarter (which may explain June), it should be close to what Sony is saying, especially if April and May were also up. 

Also, console spending only went up $111 million. Nintendo Switch sold 1.95 million in America which would equate to $585 million in new sales. The NPD analyst have been crediting the increase in sales to Switch every month (and PS4 1TB in June). Some of this could be from a decline in Wii U sales, but there would still have to be a decline in the other systems to reflect it. 

It just seems odd that there would be a huge increase in PS4 sales when shipments are down and the increase of the quarter was due to another system. I will ask: was there a price cut for the system since the last quarter? Might explain part of it

Sources:

https://venturebeat.com/2017/05/18/april-2017-npd/

https://venturebeat.com/2017/06/19/may-2017-npd-injustice-2-comes-out-on-top-as-nintendo-games-keep-selling/

https://venturebeat.com/2017/07/20/june-2017-npd-tekken-and-injustice-roundhouse-kick-the-sales-chart/

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2017/170726e.pdf



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Known as Smashchu in a former life

VideoGameAccountant said:

*snip*

Because shipments are not sales, and the U.S. isn't the whole world. It's not hard to understand. Sales can be up in a given quarter even if shipments are down. Let's take a look at PS2 shipments vs. sales during the system's prime sales years (2000-2005), since I can easily find quarterly shipment data for it. Specifically, let's look at America. Sony's shipment data covers North America, while NPD data covers the U.S. as a whole, but generally speaking the U.S. represents on average some 85-90% of the U.S. market, and, aside from some screwy exceptions (i.e., supply shortages and other disruptions) shipments tend to outpace sales, for obvious reasons.


Sales and shipments seem to rise and fall in tandem, right? Maybe at first glance, but 2004 clearly shows that sales in a given time period can outpace sales. But just to be sure, let's break this down by quarter.

Running into a bit of a problem, aren't we? While we see the clear and familiar pattern of sales remaining low during non-holiday quarters and then experiencing a big jump in Q4 (which averages around 50% or so of the year's sales for most systems), shipments don't really exhibit a clear pattern. In 2001 to 2003, Sony ramped up shipments throughout the year, peaking in Q3, while Q4 shipments saw a drop from Q3, almost certainly because they already had plenty of stock in the supply channels ahead of the holidays (we've seen non-holiday global shipments outpace holiday shipments for the PS4 as well), but after 2003 we don't see that pattern (the transition to the PS2 Slim, which was plagued by early shortages, was a likely culprit). We see several incidences of sales in the U.S. being greater than shipments to the entire region, both in holiday and non-holiday quarters. We see at least two quarters (Q1 2002 and Q4 2005) where sales were up YoY while shipments were down.

And this is in just one region. If I had the time (it's taken me over an hour to make those charts and write up this post), I could show the same for Japan, and for systems besides the PS2. I could also show that global shipments in a given quarter can vary wildly in what share of those shipments each region gets. So, once we add in the complications of global shipments vs. global sales, we clearly go way past any reasonable ideas that shipments are in any way congruent with sales.

TL;DR, it is not at all unusual that we could see global shipments for the PS4 decline in Q2 of this year despite sales going up in the U.S., staying statistically flat in Japan, and probably not dropping by any appreciable amount in Europe, either (if VGC is any indication, they're actually up quite a bit in Europe as well). It always bears repeating: Shipments are not sales!



Pionner said:

Thanks ethomaz.

Anyway, i doubt anyone is waiting for a $500 console that plays the same games as base XB1. XB1 isn't doing well because all throughout this 1 quarter all the games that were in conversation are on PS4 and Switch. There's no exclusive software to get people interested into purchasing the console. A $500 one that plays games a litte better isn't gioing to change XB sales.

No one is waiting for the X1X? Then why did it do well on Amazon?

LivingMetal said:
ArchangelMadzz said:

Something something hourly usage of Xbox live
Something launch of spotify
Something thank you.


They'll continue to pretend that YOY growth of Xbox live is impressive when it's obvious as they've had a year of sales and therefore a year of new users. 

So this is why Microsoft is pushing cross-play on other platforms.

Or maybe gamers wanted cross-play.

thismeintiel said:
DonFerrari said:

Both are doing dick moves... just like manga translators and scanners, etc, complain of people putting their work in different sites... If you aren't respecting IP from someone you can't complain that your piracy is being pirated.

Well, let's not forget that NPD is the one who started being a dick first.  They freely gave out numbers for years, like Media Create still does to this day.  But, decided not to any longer.  While that most likely had to do with requests from HW manufacturers whose numbers weren't that great, that's still BS and NPD should have told them to fuck off.  Even still, we had leakers that weren't really sought after.  My guess is even though they were leaking numbers, the HW manufacturers (most likely Sony and Nintendo) didn't care if the numbers were discussed by a few geeks in forums, they just didn't want them plastered all over sites for everyone to see.  Now, we have MS selling very poorly and NPD has been encouraged to send out their goons to shut down any and all leaks.  It's really a situation that shouldn't have happened.

You think MS told NPD not to release HW numbers? Yeah, sure.

Carl2291 said:
librarian13579 said:

Fuck. Ethomaz cross-posted numbers on NeoGAF when I specifically said not to do that.

Times change. People change. Places change. Languages change. One thing remains constant.

ethomaz is a dumb cunt.

Your last statement is true and I find it hard to believe that there are people here who still defend him.

Dyllyo said:
Hmmm... Why doesn't Microsoft want to share numbers anymore?

Take a wild guess...and it started in 2014 when Satya Nadella became CEO of MS.



Proud to be a Californian.

When August NPD thread will be created?