I think that's a sure thing. The only way it won't hit 10 million by the end of the year is if the supply problems become incredibly bad, like, super bad.

They just need to pump out a little more to hit 12 mil at this rate. If they can literally double pruduction for holidays jumping over the wii U LT sales is possible.

Another question: how long do you think it will take for switch to pass the ps4 in japan? Currently ps4: 5 mil switch: 1.3 mil. Remember that the switch already beat the ps4's first two years on the market over there...

Best contribution to this thread so far.

OT: It should be more.

I would just add another reason:

E. Full handheld mode, multipalyer on the go, and controlers for local multiplayer out of box.

At end Switch is too different to any other console market, it has unique concept and possibilities and and very unique and total different exclusive games compared to other consoles. Low avabilite could definitely heart Switch because of people who are buying presents, but if someone really wants Switch it will buy sooner or later in any case.

1) Like I wrote, they don't need to double production in order to hit 10m at end of year. Nintendo numbers are more accurate, and theyshipped 2m in last 3 months April-June.

2) But my point was very clear, demand for Switch is still very strong and Nintendo still did not meet that demand, and with new system seller games, demand will further be increased, with Splatoon 2 demand is now stronger for Switch, and of course it will be much stronger during holiday season in any case and espacialy with Mario Odyssey. Games like Zelda BotW, MK8D, Splatoon 2 and Mario Odyssey will be system seller games even next year not just this one.

3) I know that. Like I wrote, if Switch will supply constrained even in holiday season, they will again sale any unit they can ship in any case. But point is that demand is still very strong, and now because Splatoon 2 is even stronger, its hard to believe that demand will be less in holiday season in any case, espacily with Mario Odyssey launch. And people who really wants Switch will be waiting for better availability and they will buy Switch sooner or later in any case, because Switch is too different compared to any other console on market.

1) If they continue to ship at 2M/month, they cannot sell 10M units by year's end. Nintendo announced that they were at 4.7M sold by the end of June (including launch sales). At that rate, they end the year at 8.7M. The reason I think 10M is an unfair target is that, dismissing the current parts issue, people seem to forget that they loaded up units for the launch. Once they burned through that lot and established the crazy current demand, they were grossly under-prepared to manufacture at demand with no inventory. For reference, that inventory allowed them to sell ~33K/day (in the US), and now they are selling ~7K/day: that's a nearly 5:1 ratio. This type of dynamic is commonplace, but the closest analog I can think of is the PS4 launch. 

2) Maybe: as I pointed out before, it's not working out for the WiiU/X1. It's all relative to ultimate demand and how much has been sold through to the total addressable market. It seems likely, with the the current supply issues, that we will have no idea if these "system sellers" are system sellers at all. If they all release and demand remains unmet, there will be no discernible difference in sales. If the market demand is met after release, we will never know. If I had to bet, those are the games that people are waiting for.

3) I think this is a redundant point, if it's tied too closely to the demand of Switch/hardcore/Nintendo fans. Those people will buy the system: it's matter of when, not if. Mainstream/casual gamers are fickle and cannot be relied upon for consistency; if they could, the PS4 would have annihilated the X1: price, power, etc. When the emoji movie can get a 0 on RT and make 22MM its opening weekend, you really have to wonder how much they can be affected by shiny, new things.

4) How legitimate is this Apple chip issue? Does anyone know how much they're trying to crowd Nintendo out? I get the 100M phones bit, but it's getting super annoying fo us gamers.

1) Nintendo most probably hold back quite a lot of consoles for Splatoon 2 launch if Japan is any indication. Splatoon 2 week basically equals all of June sales. And seeing how the consoles stay up high on Amazon Japan without the prices rising means that there's a constant stream of new shipments incoming for them, too, much more than before Splatoon 2 launch. If we have a similar situation worldwide (though most probably not as extreme as in Japan), then Nintendo must have held back several 100k consoles for the launch of that one game. Without that hoarding the shipments could have very well be closer to 2.5M, which would have been enought to reach the 10M mark by end of the year. With the announced shipment increases for summer and fall 12-14M should be possible for this year

2) It didn't work out for the Wii U because when those finally hit the shelves after long droughts the ship had long sailed away already. On the Xbox side it comes down to having not enough exclusives, and those they have all tend to be from the same categories: Dudebro shooters (Halo, Gears...), Racing Sims (lots of Forza) and failures; either to capture an audience or just not being good enough (Ryse, Halo Wars). Plus, since the games also come out on PC there's very little incentive to actually buy a console to play them if you have an halfway okayish PC (other than being able to avoid the horrendous Windows marketplace).

4) Don't know the exact numbers, but don't just factor the phones, especially for such things like RAM chips. Apple needs those also for their Tablets and Macbooks, although in the latter case in a different format. Bit this still piles up to a lot. But the main problem is that everyone wants those parts, not just Nintendo and Apple: Samsung, Huawei, Motorola and so on all want those same ressources too, if it would be just Apple the situation would be much better.

1) I'm very sketpical of the idea that Nintendo is holding back consoles to drive up demand and I'd imagine that, if they are releasing bundles for a release (Splatoon 2 did have them, correct?), they don't have a secondar production line. Consequently, there should be an expected spike in sales (as the bundles sell out), followed by a drop off (as they resume normal production). In other words, holding back consoles doesn't affect monthly production, merely monthly sales. To that end, they estimated sales of about 100K for Switch in JPN at launch (4X weekly boost), which would only represent 50% weekly global increase. If you look at their restocking dates there, you can see that they restock in JPN on a semi-monthly or monthly schedule: it was monthly before Splatoon 2, possibly accounting for the extra availability. We're going to have to keep an eye on the successive weeks to know just how they managed to meet launch demand and how much they ramped up production to meet the insane global demand.

2) You've really driven my point home, and I think we're on the same page. Once the tipping point is reached, even traditional "system sellers" can't sell systems. Switch is in the unique period where we can't tell much of anything about the effect of game launches, due to the fact that they don't need game launches to move the needle. It's a nice problem to have.

4) I've seen the guesstimates vary wildly, and the sources haven't exactly been reputable. What you're saying is directly in alignment with the general consensus, however. I do wonder if there's a contingency plan, maybe rooted in a SwitchXL or the like, just to get out from under the cellphone manufacturer supply chain monopolies.

Man, talking about this, it makes the Wii U's failure even crazier. That was just insane.

Unless Nintendo have issues procuring the parts I see no reason for it not to ship 10M this year and reach the highest official MS figures of close to shipping 10M.

MS?