| Miyamotoo said: 1) Like I wrote, they don't need to double production in order to hit 10m at end of year. Nintendo numbers are more accurate, and theyshipped 2m in last 3 months April-June. 2) But my point was very clear, demand for Switch is still very strong and Nintendo still did not meet that demand, and with new system seller games, demand will further be increased, with Splatoon 2 demand is now stronger for Switch, and of course it will be much stronger during holiday season in any case and espacialy with Mario Odyssey. Games like Zelda BotW, MK8D, Splatoon 2 and Mario Odyssey will be system seller games even next year not just this one. 3) I know that. Like I wrote, if Switch will supply constrained even in holiday season, they will again sale any unit they can ship in any case. But point is that demand is still very strong, and now because Splatoon 2 is even stronger, its hard to believe that demand will be less in holiday season in any case, espacily with Mario Odyssey launch. And people who really wants Switch will be waiting for better availability and they will buy Switch sooner or later in any case, because Switch is too different compared to any other console on market. |
1) If they continue to ship at 2M/month, they cannot sell 10M units by year's end. Nintendo announced that they were at 4.7M sold by the end of June (including launch sales). At that rate, they end the year at 8.7M. The reason I think 10M is an unfair target is that, dismissing the current parts issue, people seem to forget that they loaded up units for the launch. Once they burned through that lot and established the crazy current demand, they were grossly under-prepared to manufacture at demand with no inventory. For reference, that inventory allowed them to sell ~33K/day (in the US), and now they are selling ~7K/day: that's a nearly 5:1 ratio. This type of dynamic is commonplace, but the closest analog I can think of is the PS4 launch.
2) Maybe: as I pointed out before, it's not working out for the WiiU/X1. It's all relative to ultimate demand and how much has been sold through to the total addressable market. It seems likely, with the the current supply issues, that we will have no idea if these "system sellers" are system sellers at all. If they all release and demand remains unmet, there will be no discernible difference in sales. If the market demand is met after release, we will never know. If I had to bet, those are the games that people are waiting for.
3) I think this is a redundant point, if it's tied too closely to the demand of Switch/hardcore/Nintendo fans. Those people will buy the system: it's matter of when, not if. Mainstream/casual gamers are fickle and cannot be relied upon for consistency; if they could, the PS4 would have annihilated the X1: price, power, etc. When the emoji movie can get a 0 on RT and make 22MM its opening weekend, you really have to wonder how much they can be affected by shiny, new things.
4) How legitimate is this Apple chip issue? Does anyone know how much they're trying to crowd Nintendo out? I get the 100M phones bit, but it's getting super annoying fo us gamers.
