I says 12M

3M july-sep
5M oct-dec

Nintendo expects 10m sold this year but they're gonna go so over that number, they just dont wanna repeat overshooting again

1) Nintendo already stated they will have bigger shipments in July and Avgust and that production will further increase starting in the fall.

2) Demand rises with every bigger launched, you can bet now with Splatoon 2 demand is even stronger, and offocurse demand for Switch will huge in holiday season in any case.

3) XB1X is totally irrelevant for Switch, difrent games, difrent concept, difrent price point, that's console for high end market (4k), and battle will mostly be Pro vs XB1X.

1) Nintendo saying that they will increase shipments is not them guaranteeing that they will double their shipments.

2) This is not even remotely accurate: would a new WiiU, 3DS, or X1 launch increase the current demand of any of those systems? 

3) While possible, we have no assurances that parents and chilidren unable to buy a Switch won't spend their money on a Black Friday/Christmas X1X or PS4P. Likewise, until there is a genuine marketing push, we have no assurances that the public's attention won't shift towards it and away from the 2 current leaders. 

1) We dont know how much they will increase shipments, my guess is that they aiming regular availability for holiday season. In any case, they dont need to double producaction in order to hit 10m, they basically just need to have around 1m sales of each month (maybe they will have lover than 1m per month next few months, but they will have bigger shipments in holiday season in any case).

2) I was talking about system seller games, Splatoon 2 is big system seller, you can bet that demand for Switch now is bigger than before Splatoon 2 launch, I will not even mentioned Mario Odyssey and holiday season.

4) Well availability is totally different issue, if Switch will supply constrained even in holiday season, they will again sale any unit they can ship in any case. But point is that demand is still very strong, and now because Splatoon 2 is even stronger, its hard to believe that demand will be less in holiday season in any case, espacily with Mario Odyssey launch.

I would say it would be more likely that they would buy a regular model PS4 or X1. An overwhelming majority of people right now dont own 4K TV's, so what's the incentive on spending $500 that has no benefits over the $250 system. X1X currently shows why 4K gaming should've waited, and it honestly makes Nintendo look smart. If someone wanted to get a Switch for their kid even if they are supply constrained, they are more likely to wait and buy the Switch compared to the X1X for a few reasons, some these I've listed.

A. The price. I would rather buy a $300 system than a $500 system. I could get the system and 4-5 games as compared to getting the X1X and 2 games.

B. The lack of 4K TV's. Studies show an overwhelming majority do not own 4K TV's (I believe it's currently somewhere between 90-95%), so in order to reap the benefits of the X, I need to spend bare minimum $1200-2000 for a good 4K TV, which will total out to a pretty significant investment. Sure as time goes on more people will buy into it for the upgrade, but that's years away. It just doesn't seem viable at this point.

C. The exclusives. Name one game on the X that matches Super Mario Odyssey, the premiere holiday game. Heck, nothing right now on the X matches Odyssey, Splatoon 2, Zelda, MK8 Deluxe, even Arms is better than any exclusive on X1 in general, and I know, I own an X1 (and there's Switch games I'm not including). There's not 1 game pushing the X, and a plethora pushing the Switch. Which brings me to my last point.

D. The Stigma. The X1 since its reveal has never gotten positive vibes from the crowd. Why would an increased price X1 do anything more? The Switch on the other hand is scene as the hottest console out on the market. Every friend I have shown it to is amazed by it, and just today the guy working on the furnace asked about it, to which I showed it to him, and he said he was probably gonna pull the trigger. The Switch is a monster at this point, and nothing seems to slow it down.

If you would've said the base $250 PS4/X1 I might agree, but the X1X stealing Switch sales when it caters to only hardcores seems utterly wrong to me.

Yup, that's a safe bet :P

1) If they're completely selling out now, which I believe they are, then their current production rate needs to be doubled. Going by VGC's numbers (I know. I know.), they're cranking out about 150K/week now. To hit 1M will require them to ramp it up by 1.7X, and we really don't know how legitimate the "parts war" with Apple is, either. It's a big ask and expectation for them to do that.

2) Well, using the term "system seller" is totally cheating lol. If it sells systems, then it's a system seller that automatically proves your point. If it's a perennial system seller that doesn't sell systems, then the demand can't be driven up by games. Zelda BotW was a system seller for Switch, but not for WiiU, because the latter simply can't use games to move the needle anymore.

1) Availability is supply. 

Well taken, but you're projecting a gamer's perspective onto mainstream audiences. This is the trap we all must watch out for and a reason that so many gamers were initially bearish on the Switch. We haven't seen the X1X preorder data, and the system is already getting significant social media attention. What if MS went full-blast with YouTube videos of Switch "problems" and a whole hog with graphical comparisons? I'd have very little confidence that the mainstream audience will have a discerning eye and ward off the manufactured hysteria, especially since it's hard enough to get people to look beyond price. Either way, we'll know rather soon. 

Switch shipped 2 million this quarter but it Ninty most likely produced a little more. If Ninty didnt air a few over in March then my guess for shipments would be as follows: March - 2.5 million. April-Jun - 2.2 million. Going by this and reports that Nintendo has increased production I am guessing they will ship 2.5 million July-September. They will probably product 3 million but save 500k for last quarter which translates to a 3.5 million shipment for last quarter (3 million production plus 500k from previous quarter). Total will be 10.7 million. So yes it will pass 10 million by end of year. May even get 12 if Ninty can produce enough units.

If they manage to ship 12 by end of year then 15 million is a possibility for end of fiscal. 12.3 million for total fiscal year plus 2.7 million this past March. Not too shabby.

Yes, I think so too.

Realistic prediction: 12m (2017)
Possibility if they fix stock issues big time: 14m (2017)