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Insidb on 27 July 2017
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Miyamotoo said:
Insidb said:
Maybe, because there are 3 main factors that will determine this:

1) Supply - At the current rate, 10M is impossible: 600K/month * 5 months = 3M; 3M + 4.7M = 7.7M. In essence, they would need to double their supply rate and maintain global demand. That's asking a lot.

2) Demand - With the current supply constraints, no reliable demand can be established. The Switch is readily available in Europe now, but very limited in JPN, USA, and CA. If the polls I've run on here are any indication, Nintendo has only met about 72% of our demand (Up only 5% on the month before, and flat from June to July). It could be that demand is met by December, we overreport as more likely early adopters, 6.6M is total demand, etc. I think next week's poll will be very telling and that I should have done my poll with regional breakdowns.

3) XB1X - Preorders start any day now, and MS could (probably won't) steal the holiday thunder, which could hamper the Y17 Switch sales.

1) Nintendo already stated they will have bigger shipments in July and Avgust and that production will further increase starting in the fall.

2) Demand rises with every bigger launched, you can bet now with Splatoon 2 demand is even stronger, and offocurse demand for Switch will huge in holiday season in any case.

3) XB1X is totally irrelevant for Switch, difrent games, difrent concept, difrent price point, that's console for high end market (4k), and battle will mostly be Pro vs XB1X.

1) Nintendo saying that they will increase shipments is not them guaranteeing that they will double their shipments.

2) This is not even remotely accurate: would a new WiiU, 3DS, or X1 launch increase the current demand of any of those systems? 

3) While possible, we have no assurances that parents and chilidren unable to buy a Switch won't spend their money on a Black Friday/Christmas X1X or PS4P. Likewise, until there is a genuine marketing push, we have no assurances that the public's attention won't shift towards it and away from the 2 current leaders.