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Forums - Sales Discussion - What games on PS4/XB1/Switch will sell 10 million+?

Physical and digital or physical only?



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Lesse, from Nintendo:

-Zelda: Breath of the Wild
-Super Mario Odyssey
-A Pokemon Game
-Splatoon 2
-An Animal Crossing game
-Mario Kart 8 Deluxe



 

              

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Vor said:

Even if COD stays popular I don't see it sold 10 million on both console unless ppl want to double dip. HZD has a chance to sell over 10 million if it get a bundle, same story with Zelda. I'll just add another wildcard which is Splatoon 2.

Edit: Also 32 mil for GTA VI on PS4 would be insane. There's no way it would reach that number unless being massively bundled. Do we even have any single SKU break 30 million since the Wii days?

I dont think it can sell another 6M copies at this point.. Great game, but dont see that happening sadly.



Since Animal Crossing did 10 million on 3DS, it can easily do it on Switch.



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Some of these numbers are so weird - 32 million for "GTA VI" on PS4 alone is hilarious in-particular.



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Slownenberg said:

Can only speak to Nintendo.

Zelda 12-13 million

Mario Odyssey 12-16 million

MK8D 15 million

Splatoon 2 10-12 million

Smash Bros 10-20 million

2d Mario 10-20 million

Pokemon 20-25 million

Animal Crossing 10 million

What are these numbers lol? Pokemon isn't popular enough to hit that. Pokemon hasn't sold like that since the Game Boy dayz.

All around, these numbers are too far-fetched. None of this is possible unless the Switch ends up selling 100 million lifetime. But even then I struggle to see anything selling this high unless there are bundles. These ain't multiplats, dude.



friendlyfamine said:
Slownenberg said:

Can only speak to Nintendo.

Zelda 12-13 million

Mario Odyssey 12-16 million

MK8D 15 million

Splatoon 2 10-12 million

Smash Bros 10-20 million

2d Mario 10-20 million

Pokemon 20-25 million

Animal Crossing 10 million

What are these numbers lol? Pokemon isn't popular enough to hit that. Pokemon hasn't sold like that since the Game Boy dayz.

All around, these numbers are too far-fetched. None of this is possible unless the Switch ends up selling 100 million lifetime. But even then I struggle to see anything selling this high unless there are bundles. These ain't multiplats, dude.

Since they just said Pokemon they could be including third verions, which would be pretty accurate. Apart from that though, I don't see what's so far-fetched about these numbers. These are pretty typical numbers for Animal Crossing, Mario Kart, Super Smash Brothers and 2D Mario. All of these sold over 10 million on the 3DS except for Smash Brothers, but Wii U version included it's over 10 million. Zelda is definitely on it's way to doing 10 million, and while 16 million seems to high for Odyssey 10-12 million seems about right. Also if Splatoon can sell almost 5 million on a 13 million install base, 10 million seems likely for the Switch.



Green098 said:

Since they just said Pokemon they could be including third verions, which would be pretty accurate. Apart from that though, I don't see what's so far-fetched about these numbers. These are pretty typical numbers for Animal Crossing, Mario Kart, Super Smash Brothers and 2D Mario. All of these sold over 10 million on the 3DS except for Smash Brothers, but Wii U version included it's over 10 million. Zelda is definitely on it's way to doing 10 million, and while 16 million seems to high for Odyssey 10-12 million seems about right. Also if Splatoon can sell almost 5 million on a 13 million install base, 10 million seems likely for the Switch.

"Typical numbers" for a successful console. The Switch hasn't proven to be successful yet- so this is indeed far-fetched for a console only 4 MONTHS old with only 3 months of NPD data. If we get 16 million units sold by March 2018 and the Switch maintains 500k sold weekly, this would be slightly believable. But right now as it stands, Nintendo consoles have not reached those type of numbers. Only their handhelds have- and the Switch is not priced as a handheld console. You've also implied Splatoon will sell near Odyssey, I mean that's just wrong no matter how you look at it.

People are treating this like it's the next DS. Consistent double digit sellers have only occurred on the DS and Wii. And let me remind you most of that is filled with the DS and Wii branded crap.

No Zelda game has sold above 10 million also.



friendlyfamine said:

Green098 said:

Since they just said Pokemon they could be including third verions, which would be pretty accurate. Apart from that though, I don't see what's so far-fetched about these numbers. These are pretty typical numbers for Animal Crossing, Mario Kart, Super Smash Brothers and 2D Mario. All of these sold over 10 million on the 3DS except for Smash Brothers, but Wii U version included it's over 10 million. Zelda is definitely on it's way to doing 10 million, and while 16 million seems to high for Odyssey 10-12 million seems about right. Also if Splatoon can sell almost 5 million on a 13 million install base, 10 million seems likely for the Switch.

"Typical numbers" for a successful console. The Switch hasn't proven to be successful yet- so this is indeed far-fetched for a console only 4 MONTHS old with only 3 months of NPD data. If we get 16 million units sold by March 2018 and the Switch maintains 330k sold weekly, this would be slightly believable. But right now as it stands, Nintendo consoles have not reached those type of numbers. Only their handhelds have- and the Switch is not priced as a handheld console. You've also implied Splatoon will sell near Odyssey, I mean that's just wrong no matter how you look at it.

People are treating this like it's the next DS. Consistent double digit sellers have only occurred on the DS and Wii. And let me remind you most of that is filled with the DS and Wii branded crap.

No Zelda game has sold above 10 million also.

The 3DS has seven 10 million sellers, and the Switch is easily outpacing it.