I'm expecting every couple in China to buy their kid a Switch.

speaking of which...  china removed the ban of consoles two years ago, and NINTENDO is the only one actually SELLING stuff in mainland china via the Ique (reigion locked)3ds. hmm... if they can get a reigion locking chip just for china... thats a massive market, the midde-high class of china.

Open minded is saying that it will sell around PS2 numbers but saying it will sell over 400 million is when you need to call an uber driver or cab to take your not-fit-to-drive ass back to the house to sleep it off.

Great thread!

Interesting data to look at, and interesting as comparisons. I don't think the Switch will peak (as heavily anyway) in it's first year as an N64/GC, but will have it's peak fairly early on, like a GBA/3DS and somewhat the Wii. I think SNES's curve is too sharp, since the Switch's first year will be relatively bigger due to it already getting heavy hitting games like Zelda, Mario and I guess we can probably count Splatoon.

If "429.71 million, with a peak of 66 million" doesn't happen of course.

80 Million will be a great achievement in this days and age¬

Man as someone who loves numbers I commend you. Great job!

We still need to find out what the Switch's first year will be but I think the it will behave a bit like the Wii hdue to the supply constraints, where it's peak will be when production matches the demand. That said, I think it'll have a lower peak with more legs so maybe the SNES is an interesting one although I think it will definitely have more appeal than the SNES. My hunch would be something like the DS but on a smaller scale. Probably peaks year 2 or 3 and stays selling at a high level for at least 5-6 years

Interesting idea for a thread, just goes to show there's no set curve for consoles and really anything could happen.

What they would make in mindshare at 70 - 80 million could be far greater than the money earned from the generation.

Depending on its legs, between SNES and Wii numbers, if Ninty doesn't anything horribly stupid and it supports it decently for at least five and a half years (after that, low HW price, budget editions and third party support that can last more than first party one, if user base is large enouigh to be attractive, could easily extend its life to at least seven years, and we know that's enough for successful consoles to sell a lot.

Should add the launch MSRP of each console as well. I wonder how launch price can be extrapolated to sales curve, if there's any pattern at all.