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Forums - Microsoft Discussion - DFC Intelligence: Xbox One X to sell 17m by 2021

 

How many xbox one x will sell by 2021

low than 1m 7 3.20%
 
1m+ 6 2.74%
 
3m+ 27 12.33%
 
5m+ 66 30.14%
 
10m+ 63 28.77%
 
15m+ 11 5.02%
 
20m+ 9 4.11%
 
more than Ps4 Pro 17 7.76%
 
see the results 13 5.94%
 
Total:219
Ganoncrotch on 29 June 2017
I LOVE GIGGS said:
riecsou said:
Isn't that a great number? Based on vgchartz Xbox One is currently at 29 millions. And they forcast the xbox one family to be at 63 millions. Meaning they will have sold 34 millions Xbox one in the next 4 years where 50% of them are Xbox One X???

In 2020, Microsoft will release a new console and drop XOS support. Sales on that year will be 70% XOX, 20% New console and 10% XOS. In 2019, it will be 50% or more for XOX. 

2017: ~10%

2018: ~40%

2019: ~70% (Microsoft will stop producing Xbox One S)

2020: ~90%

From a % wise you could be correct, but you really think that a system which is being discontinued because of the new console you talk about here is going to sell 2/3 the amount that the Xbox sold in the first 4 years in the last 4 years of its life?



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loy310 on 29 June 2017

Xbox 1 sold about 7 million a year since launch and that's with massive price adjustment and a hardware revision. MS expects 1X to basically perform the exact same way. I'd be surprised if the 1X sells 10 million units in 5 years.



ArchangelMadzz on 29 June 2017

No way. 1 in 5 PS4 sales are PS4Pro apparently. And they expect 50% of Xbox sales to be the XBX?

Selling 34 million in the next 4 years is a TOUGH ask, let a lone 17 million XBX's. I'd love to be proved wrong but there's no freaking way.

Either this means that the Xbox will sell more in the second half of it's life than the first half, or Xbox will never ever drop. What are they smoking?



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S.T.A.G.E. on 29 June 2017

That means the Xbox one x will sell somewhat on par with the Xbox one s. That analyst needs to be fired.



celador on 29 June 2017

lol, that's optimistic to say the least



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riecsou on 29 June 2017
I LOVE GIGGS said:
riecsou said:
Isn't that a great number? Based on vgchartz Xbox One is currently at 29 millions. And they forcast the xbox one family to be at 63 millions. Meaning they will have sold 34 millions Xbox one in the next 4 years where 50% of them are Xbox One X???

In 2020, Microsoft will release a new console and drop XOS support. Sales on that year will be 70% XOX, 20% New console and 10% XOS. In 2019, it will be 50% or more for XOX. 

2017: ~10%

2018: ~40%

2019: ~70% (Microsoft will stop producing Xbox One S)

2020: ~90%

You mean stop producing them right? Because whatever game they release needs to be playable on both Xbox one S and Xbox One X, or they would just shoot themselves again in the legs.

Beside that I think those percentages looks about right. 



Oneeee-Chan!!! on 29 June 2017

I guess SNES mini will more sell well than 1X in life time.

Prbably as much as PSVR.



aLkaLiNE on 29 June 2017

Nope 😂 Would mean that more xox sell than x1s over the next few years. At $500 for the launch? The one X will never build the momentum it needs to sell 17 million in the next few years



PEEPer0nni on 29 June 2017
S.T.A.G.E. said:

That means the Xbox one x will sell somewhat on par with the Xbox one s. That analyst needs to be fired.

Gaming analysts are completely incompetent. Propably the same people that thought that making Dead Space 3 a CoD clone would help this game to sell 5 million copies. What's even funnier they sell their ''analysis data'' for 1000$-5000$ and big publisher are buying this bullshit.

http://www.dfcint.com/wp/



JRPGfan on 29 June 2017

wait what?

63m - 29m = 34m more units sold in the next 3.5 years or so.

But its only done 29m so far... so sales are going to be better the last years of its life cycle than the first?

Also out of those 34m, upwards of 20m are bound to be a 499$ Xbox One X model?
While the Xbox One S is only going to do 14m?

that seems wrong..


How does DFC make these predictions? are they reliable?