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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Macquarie ups its Switch sales views from 11M to 14.5M in FY3/18 !

Rem87919394 on 25 April 2017

Don't see it hitting PS3 and x360 levels. Maybe it'll outsell x1



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Miyamotoo on 25 April 2017

bonzobanana said:

I think the Vita was a poor seller in the US and that again was a powerful system with a ok but not stellar range of software. It also had a big pricing issue due to using proprietary memory cards. Switch seems similar, high pricing including online, weak range of fairly minor software and a high console price. It seems a similar situation except Switch has a single amazing software title and the home console functionality is much better the rubbish 2 system approach of Sony with Vita and Playstation tv. I think sales in Europe will drop off fairly soon but it looks like US sales will be more robust.

Many of these commercial predictions are based on the high launch numbers but I would of thought they need to see sales for 2-3 months before they can really have a chance of predicting what is going to happen.

I dont think we can rely compare Switch and Vita, they are too different. First, Vita is just a handheld, Switch is hybrid, real home console and real handheld in one, Switch use SD card and they are very affordable and widely used on market, basically everybody have them, also for some people built in 32GB will be enuf. Switch like hybrid console does not have high price point and actually has very wide market appeal compared to Vita, online will be cheap, Switch plays full Nintendo home console games that wasnt case with Vita, evre console has weak range of software on launch but Switch will have some of strongest Nintendo IPs in its 1st 9 months, just Zelda BotW makes huge difference, but they are also MK8D, Splatoon 2, Mario Odyssey and possibly some other titles. Also fact is that Vita had weak launch in US while Switch had best launch ever for Nintendo console and actually one of best ever (only PS4 had stronger launch in US).

Predictions are based on launch numbers, but also on market demand for Switch and 1st year heavy hitter software.



Louie on 25 April 2017
bonzobanana said:
I don't really know or understand the Japanese and US markets but can see that the Switch should do well in Japan with such titles especially as they get a better Switch hardware prices I believe and portable systems are far more popular. I think the Vita was a poor seller in the US and that again was a powerful system with a ok but not stellar range of software. It also had a big pricing issue due to using proprietary memory cards. Switch seems similar, high pricing including online, weak range of fairly minor software and a high console price. It seems a similar situation except Switch has a single amazing software title and the home console functionality is much better the rubbish 2 system approach of Sony with Vita and Playstation tv. I think sales in Europe will drop off fairly soon but it looks like US sales will be more robust.

Many of these commercial predictions are based on the high launch numbers but I would of thought they need to see sales for 2-3 months before they can really have a chance of predicting what is going to happen.


I don't think you can compare the two software lineups at all to be honest. The Switch has Zelda, Mario Kart, Splatoon and 3D Mario in the first year, all 5m+ sellers (and things like ARMS could be big as well). The Vita didn't have software of that caliber, besides Uncharted. The software lineup of the Switch is a lot stronger than the Vita's ever was and that comes from a very happy PSP owner who bought a Vita early. 



kopstudent89 on 25 April 2017

Switch >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Sliced Bread



LivingMetal on 25 April 2017

Scorpio is doomed.



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Platina on 26 April 2017

Definitely will be impressive if it can outsell the Wii U in one year



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dahuman on 26 April 2017
DialgaMarine said:
dahuman said:

The point is that this is the Vita dream coming true, you are not looking at the same angle is all.

 The Vita dream was console quality on a handheld device, which it arguable achieved. Problem there was (and this is the same problem the Switch is looking to have in the long term) is developer support. It's nice to believe Nintendo's franchises alone can sell hardware, but the reality is without games like Destiny 2, Overwatch, Battlefront, Battlefield, Red Dead 2, GTA, CoD and so on, the system won't sell very well. 

The thing is, you don't have to argue with the Switch on if it has actual new home console quality titles or not, because we already know it will, be it 1st party or 3rd party. As far as sales go, we'll have to find out in about 1-2 years. I personally think by the 6 month mark, we'll have a pretty good idea since the drop off is usually 3 months?



Luke888 on 27 May 2017

Welp, Capcom exceeded the expectations concerning MH and DQ, while being X and not XI (at least as of now), is indeed coming by the end of the year, I have to say Macquarie was pretty spot-on !



Flilix on 27 May 2017
Slownenberg said:
They need some big third party games to come this year if they're gonna hit that number. Zelda, Mario Kart, Splatoon, and Mario alone ain't gonna get to 14 million in one year.

Minecraft, FIFA, NBA, Skyrim, Dragon Quest, Monster Hunter, Sonic.