10m would be lovely in the first year.

Already? Yeah it's had a rather fantastic launch. Nintendo back on the ball with what people want. I didn't even know I wanted it until they revealed it, now I can't put the damn thing down.

2 units over PS4.

Without Pokemon:

Between PSP and DS (8-9 millions).

Without Pokemon, but with price drop for holidays:

Between DS and PS4 (10-12 millions).

With Pokemon out this holiday:

More than PS4 (15 millions)

I'd say 9 million.

I can only present a low-case, expected, and high-case scenario:

Low case: Switch fails to turn up at E3, with few third-parties actually on board with anything of substance. Rumours about how third-parties did not expect the initial buzz go around, but ultimately third parties decide to treat the Switch just like the Wii -- resulting in low-quality past-gen ports, quick mini-game and handheld-focused simple projects. Mario Odyssey is delayed to 2018 "to ensure optimal quality". Without a big new exclusive, Switch loses steam as people remember the sting of Wii's final 3 years. Sales drop to levels similar to Wii U's first year.

Sales: 8.7 million

Normal case: Good software line-up based on exclusives by both Nintendo and its second parties as well as select third parties. A low number of high quality 3D ports from current-gen consoles. A number of good ports from old-gen systems (both by Nintendo as well as by third/second parties). The system retains its current cult status into the winter, and is further boosted by the excellent Mario Odyssey. The system remains in relative scarcity during the whole year, and stocks are never in full availability.

Sales: 12.8 million

Best case: An excellent demonstration of support by third parties, alongside meaningful Nintendo first and second party games shows strong intent to keep the Switch focused on 'quality games', rather than quick cash-grabs. Mario Odyssey goes on to exceed Breath of the Wild in review rankings, and sells very strongly during December, raising the system's appeal. The system is very hard to find throughout the year.

Sales: 14.3 million

13.91 million

Depends on E3 and Pokemon.

It's hard to tell before E3, if Nintendo has a big surprise for the Holidays it could have a huge impact on sales depending on the IP.

But considering the games we know so far I believe it will sell between 9-10 million

Fun going back and reading, I am still curious where the LTD will land March 3, 2018