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Forums - Sales Discussion - Predict Switch's First Year Sales

p0isonparadise on 23 April 2017
Yerm said:
i decided to do some math out and try to find a reasonable answer. to start i calculated what the total sales would be if the total monthly sales gradually decreased by 10% of the previous month, and that came out to -

2,500,000 - March
2,250,000 - April
2,025,000 - May
1,822,500 - June
1,640,250 - July
1,475,225 - August
1,328,603 - September
1,195,742 - October
1,076,168 - November
968,551 - December
871,696- January
784,526- February

Total - 17,938,261

At first it seemed bit high, but remember - the Switch is right now the fastest selling console in the US, and there are a ton of people wanting to buy one but cant due to supply issues. AND Nintendo has announced they are now planning to supply 16 million units for the first year now instead of 8 million. So if it keeps selling well, this is not a bad estimate.

So there is my guess - 17,938,261 units

This is incredibly flawed, I don't even know where to begin. 



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Johnw1104 on 23 April 2017

I would much prefer to make this prediction after E3 if that's alright with you... we just don't have all of the info yet.

If they even hint at a Switch-only Pokemon that would add a few million in sales in my mind, so I really can't say just yet. For all we know they might save the Pokemon bump for year two and try to just maintain this momentum with the games they've already announced.



Yerm on 23 April 2017
p0isonparadise said:
Yerm said:
i decided to do some math out and try to find a reasonable answer. to start i calculated what the total sales would be if the total monthly sales gradually decreased by 10% of the previous month, and that came out to -

2,500,000 - March
2,250,000 - April
2,025,000 - May
1,822,500 - June
1,640,250 - July
1,475,225 - August
1,328,603 - September
1,195,742 - October
1,076,168 - November
968,551 - December
871,696- January
784,526- February

Total - 17,938,261

At first it seemed bit high, but remember - the Switch is right now the fastest selling console in the US, and there are a ton of people wanting to buy one but cant due to supply issues. AND Nintendo has announced they are now planning to supply 16 million units for the first year now instead of 8 million. So if it keeps selling well, this is not a bad estimate.

So there is my guess - 17,938,261 units

This is incredibly flawed, I don't even know where to begin. 

well obviously the monthly sales woouldnt be accurate at all. around November and December they would be higher due to the holiday season. the only real prediction im making here is that the Switch will sell 17,938,261 units in its first year



Wyrdness on 27 April 2017

Switch is past 3m already by the looks of it, the investor's report is out and they sold 2.7m in March at this rate 10-12m looks like the likely range if this keeps up.



NobleTeam360 on 27 April 2017

I'll go 9.5 million

Edit, Thought it said the end of the year. I'll go 11 million then for its 1st actual year.



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Oneeee-Chan!!! on 27 April 2017

12.74 million.



ninjapirate42 on 27 April 2017

Almost 3 million in the first month have been sold. I know there's not a TON of titles coming that we know about but MK8 and Splatoon2 with Mario Odyssey will have a good bit of push.
I'm thinking 12.5 million by the end of next March.



Acevil on 27 April 2017

10.5 million by the end of 2017 and 12.5 by the end of 2017fy



 

DroidKnight on 03 May 2017

Bump. Two months in, ten to go.



...to avoid getting banned for inactivity, I may have to resort to comments that are of a lower overall quality and or beneath my moral standards.

Jumpin on 04 May 2017

15.5M LT by March 31.



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.