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None of the blockbuster 3rd party games coming to switch 2017

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Switch lifetime figures?

12-15 million 72 7.05%
 
15-20 million 58 5.68%
 
20-25 million 78 7.64%
 
25-30 million 119 11.66%
 
Way more than the above 694 67.97%
 
Total:1,021
RolStoppable said:
Zod95 said:

I don't think so. From the beginning I was expecting a strong start. NS is doing 47% better than WiiU. What does that tell you?

That this percentage will keep growing throughout this year, because the video game market is momentum-based. Right now it's 47% (didn't check for myself, I trust you on this) because the timeframe for comparison is so short. If it's extended to ten months, Switch is going to be in the area of selling 200% better than Wii U (~10.5m vs. ~3.5m). If it's shortened to one month, then Switch is selling only around 25% better than Wii U (~2.5m vs. ~2m).

You kind of make my point. It's still too early to tell about NS's success.

zorg1000 said: "With each passing day your prediction gets more and more unrealistic.", which is not true.



Prediction made in 14/01/2014 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 70M      WiiU: 25M

Prediction made in 01/04/2016 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 18M

Prediction made in 15/04/2017 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 90M      XOne: 40M      WiiU: 15M      Switch: 20M

Prediction made in 24/03/2018 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 110M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 14M      Switch: 65M

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GoOnKid said:

It will have great legs, and it probably cost next to nothing to develop, so it's already making money, I guess.

...

Another thing is the vocabulary you use. How can sales of 1.6M in the first 10 weeks be horrible? How is even 0.5M poor when the game had low costs? We do not have the production values of either games, so calling it poor or horrible is not possible because of lacking context.

Development cost and return on investment is not the point here. The point is that these games are supposed to drive hardware sales. Wii Sports did that brilliantly, so did Wii Play and Wii Fit. PS3 and X360 were loaded with top quality hardcore games and yet Wii sold better than any of those systems. Why? Because of Zelda? Because of Mario Galaxy? Because of SSB Brawl? No. Those experiences were already on previous generations and could only cater to a 20-30M clientele. The other 70-80M came from those "super-original" titles.

1.6M in the first 10 weeks is horrible because the market was already educated. It should have been 10M in that period so that the game could aspire to reach Wii Sports levels. It didn't, and it didn't drive hardware sales. The result? Nintendo went from hero to zero (from their best selling console - Wii - to their worst selling console - WiiU), presented losses for the first time in history and got crushed by the competition. That's not a success at all. That's a catastrophe.

1-2-Switch is even worse. Nintendo won't avoid another catastrophe this way. Is that enough context for you?

 

GoOnKid said:
As the Switch userbase grows, so will the sales of 1-2 Switch.

I don't think so. Nintendo Land got surpassed by 4 Mario games and even Splatoon (launched 3 years after).

 

GoOnKid said:
And also, the main hardware driver in the launch period was Zelda anyway.

That's the problem. Mario 64 was N64's best selling title, SSB Melee was GC's and MK8 was WiiU's. If Zelda turns out to be NS's, the console is screwed.



Prediction made in 14/01/2014 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 70M      WiiU: 25M

Prediction made in 01/04/2016 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 18M

Prediction made in 15/04/2017 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 90M      XOne: 40M      WiiU: 15M      Switch: 20M

Prediction made in 24/03/2018 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 110M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 14M      Switch: 65M

zorg1000 said:
Zod95 said:

I don't think so. From the beginning I was expecting a strong start. NS is doing 47% better than WiiU. What does that tell you?

absolutely nothing.

Its also doing about 50% better than 3DS, 15% better than XBO & 75% as much as PS4.

What does that tell you?

It tells me that your initial comment has no grounds. If NS follows WiiU's pattern, my 20M prediction is extremely accurate. It's far too early to tell that my prediction is getting more and more unrealistic.



Prediction made in 14/01/2014 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 70M      WiiU: 25M

Prediction made in 01/04/2016 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 18M

Prediction made in 15/04/2017 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 90M      XOne: 40M      WiiU: 15M      Switch: 20M

Prediction made in 24/03/2018 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 110M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 14M      Switch: 65M

dark_gh0st_b0y said:
Flilix said:

Of course. The 3DS sold millions with all its 3rd party games.

ok ok, make it 70m

Switch will sell its millions too, but without basic support, it will not even touch Wii/DS levels

Can you show us your analysis to reach such arbitrary number?



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Zod95 said:
GoOnKid said:

It will have great legs, and it probably cost next to nothing to develop, so it's already making money, I guess.

...

Another thing is the vocabulary you use. How can sales of 1.6M in the first 10 weeks be horrible? How is even 0.5M poor when the game had low costs? We do not have the production values of either games, so calling it poor or horrible is not possible because of lacking context.

Development cost and return on investment is not the point here. The point is that these games are supposed to drive hardware sales. Wii Sports did that brilliantly, so did Wii Play and Wii Fit. PS3 and X360 were loaded with top quality hardcore games and yet Wii sold better than any of those systems. Why? Because of Zelda? Because of Mario Galaxy? Because of SSB Brawl? No. Those experiences were already on previous generations and could only cater to a 20-30M clientele. The other 70-80M came from those "super-original" titles.

1.6M in the first 10 weeks is horrible because the market was already educated. It should have been 10M in that period so that the game could aspire to reach Wii Sports levels. It didn't, and it didn't drive hardware sales. The result? Nintendo went from hero to zero (from their best selling console - Wii - to their worst selling console - WiiU), presented losses for the first time in history and got crushed by the competition. That's not a success at all. That's a catastrophe.

1-2-Switch is even worse. Nintendo won't avoid another catastrophe this way. Is that enough context for you?

 

GoOnKid said:
As the Switch userbase grows, so will the sales of 1-2 Switch.

I don't think so. Nintendo Land got surpassed by 4 Mario games and even Splatoon (launched 3 years after).

 

GoOnKid said:
And also, the main hardware driver in the launch period was Zelda anyway.

That's the problem. Mario 64 was N64's best selling title, SSB Melee was GC's and MK8 was WiiU's. If Zelda turns out to be NS's, the console is screwed.

Mhm. Well, if you say so.



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I see what Zod is trying to say, but I think we have to remember the Switch also doubles as their portable, so if anything they could always lean to that side and do what they've always done in that way



We seem to be looking at 4 million moved by the end of June. That means that even with a Wii U level fall and holiday, the Switch will have moved almost half of the Wii U's entire lifespan. Assuming that this momentum and having a new Mario and Zelda, plus a port of the best selling Wii U game, plus other big titles like Arms and Splatoon 2, makes any dent on the sales, we're looking at far more than 6 million during the first year - meaning the Switch will no doubt pull lifetime numbers for the Wii U rather quickly (likely somewhere between 12 and 18 months).



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Zod95 said:
RolStoppable said:

That this percentage will keep growing throughout this year, because the video game market is momentum-based. Right now it's 47% (didn't check for myself, I trust you on this) because the timeframe for comparison is so short. If it's extended to ten months, Switch is going to be in the area of selling 200% better than Wii U (~10.5m vs. ~3.5m). If it's shortened to one month, then Switch is selling only around 25% better than Wii U (~2.5m vs. ~2m).

You kind of make my point. It's still too early to tell about NS's success.

zorg1000 said: "With each passing day your prediction gets more and more unrealistic.", which is not true.

But what zorg said is true. The margin by which Switch is beating Wii U launch-aligned is growing at a rapid rate with each passing day. Three months after launch the Wii U was selling about 40k units per week. Switch is comfortably doing 160k units per week.

Zod95 said:
zorg1000 said:

absolutely nothing.

Its also doing about 50% better than 3DS, 15% better than XBO & 75% as much as PS4.

What does that tell you?

It tells me that your initial comment has no grounds. If NS follows WiiU's pattern, my 20M prediction is extremely accurate. It's far too early to tell that my prediction is getting more and more unrealistic.

Switch isn't following the Wii U's pattern at all. Switch only needed three months to beat the Wii U's entire peak year performance. This is a trajectory that makes it feasible that Switch can exceed the Wii U's lifetime sales within one year of availability. That level of momentum will make Switch cross the 20m mark in 2018 with ease and then there will be years of life left for the platform to end up with a total that is multiple times higher than your prediction.

To break it down by years, your prediction of 20m would have to look similar to this when taking the common sales curve for a struggling system into account:

2017 - 5m
2018 - 6m
2019 - 5m
2020 - 3m
2021 - 1m

But by the end of June Switch will already be closing in on 5m and then there's still half a year left, including the holiday season. Your prediction has no grounds in reality anymore, because it would require a dropoff in sales rate that is unprecedented.



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None of the blockbuster AAA3rd party games went to DS, PSP or 3DS either, what's your point?