Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Bold Prediction: Switch Will Sell 4mil Units by Years End in Japan!

Bandorr said:
So basically you are expecting wii numbers?
Seems highly unlikely.

Portable is great and all - but it isn't going to matter to THAT degree.

3DS sold over 4 million in 2011 and over 5 million in 2012 & 2013 each.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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I think it's doable first year. It's going to be a big hit in Japan right out of the gate. The question is how it does in the long run in Japan. To sustain 5 years of great sales it's going to need Pokemon, Monster Hunter, and several hardware revisions down the line.

While I doubt it will sell as well outside of Japan as inside Japan, I expect global sales to be more stable overall than Japan sales, with lower highs but higher lows.

I think the problem with the prediction is that Nintendo might have difficulties producing that amount in such a short time, especially if itīs succesful elsewhere (whiwh is likely).

Nope.

zorg1000 said:
Bandorr said:
So basically you are expecting wii numbers?
Seems highly unlikely.

Portable is great and all - but it isn't going to matter to THAT degree.

3DS sold over 4 million in 2011 and over 5 million in 2012 & 2013 each.

It was also cheaper (by $50). Then A LOT cheaper with that immediate and desperate $80 price drop. And that was all before Mobile gaming.

So it is $130 more in a post-mobile gaming era.

Again I don't see it doing wii or 3ds numbers like that.



RolStoppable said:
celador said:
Won't happen even if Pokemon Stars is real

1-2-Switch will do the trick.

Even if you think the game is incredibly stupid, that's the kind of trait that can lead to success in Japan.

I thought it was stupid + waifus that did it for Japan

I don't think 1-2-Switch has the latter



its doable since Switch is also a portable.

Bandorr said:
zorg1000 said:

3DS sold over 4 million in 2011 and over 5 million in 2012 & 2013 each.

It was also cheaper (by $50). Then A LOT cheaper with that immediate and desperate $80 price drop. And that was all before Mobile gaming.

So it is $130 more in a post-mobile gaming era.

Again I don't see it doing wii or 3ds numbers like that.

and 3DS sold better than DS in its first year despite a higher price tag and mobile having grown significantly between 2004 & 2011.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

If the hype is real with Splatoon 2 in Japan, then I can see it happening. Dragon Quest XI (a title I think a lot of people kind of forget about) should also help in pushing Switch sales over there even though it's multiplat since every new entry sells around 4-5m in Japan alone.



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Definitely possible, handhelds are Japan's largest gaming hardware market. Japan makes up the highest portion of 3DS sales with well over 20 million sold there.