Forums - Sales Discussion - January 2017 NPD Thread! PS4 #1

Sweet software numbers! And wooooooooow that guy on that Window Central website....yeah I will just leave it at wow

The absence of evidence is NOT the evidence of absence...

PSN: StlUzumaki23

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binary solo said:

Xb one up YoY, a little bit surprised. Is it specials or soething? I would think 2017 will be a bit of a down year while Scoprio anticipation builds up. Scorpio might turn the year positive, but I would expect things to drop YoY until then.

 

The first half of last year was just really bad for the XB1... so its not that hard to see the XB1s doing better YOY compared to that.

August-october this year though would be interesting, as i expect the XB1s to be down YOY on those months and not just due to scorpio but due to the fact that around that tame last year was when the XB1s came out and some of the best deals for the outgoing XB1 were floating about.



binary solo said:

 “Thanks to continued support by our fans, 2017 is off to a strong start as Xbox One game hours grew 21 percent year-over-year,” Mike Nichols, corporate vice president of Xbox Marketing,

How is this particularly good news? It appears that xbox ownership has increased by 41% YoY, so if Xbox hours have only increased by 21% that means gamers are spending substantially fewer hours, even thought tehre is a much bigger game library now than there was in Jan 2016.

When you think about it, that actually sounds like bad news if it's an across the board phenomenon for all consoles. If people are spending fewer hours on console, that means they are less likely to buy another console in future because they won't see it as a good cost vs time investment. Their leisure hours are being fulfilled by other things, and so they will spend their money on those otehr things.

PS4 down YoY, not great.

Xb one up YoY, a little bit surprised. Is it specials or soething? I would think 2017 will be a bit of a down year while Scoprio anticipation builds up. Scorpio might turn the year positive, but I would expect things to drop YoY until then.

Amazon getting it right again.

Logical and easy explanation is much of the hardware growth came from the casual adopters that merely wanted a 4K blu ray player. This will skew attach/tie ratio negatively, but a sales a sale.



aLkaLiNE said:

Logical and easy explanation is much of the hardware growth came from the casual adopters that merely wanted a 4K blu ray player. This will skew attach/tie ratio negatively, but a sales a sale.

Easy explanation, yes. Logical, probably not.

Installed base =/= active installed base, that's what happening here and it is normal. Whether you measure it by gaming hours or yearly software sales, neither value is going to keep up with the units that get added to total hardware sales because people stop using their consoles regularly eventually, be it by playing less or not at all.

There's no such thing as perpetual growth in gaming hours or yearly software sales for any video game system. Values usually peak/plateau in year 2-4, afterwards its downhill despite total hardware sales still growing. The people who buy in late aren't great enough in numbers to offset the disinterest of people who bought a system earlier in the lifecycle. That's why console generations last 5-6 years, because the dynamics of the market demand it.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes

RolStoppable said:
aLkaLiNE said:

Logical and easy explanation is much of the hardware growth came from the casual adopters that merely wanted a 4K blu ray player. This will skew attach/tie ratio negatively, but a sales a sale.

Easy explanation, yes. Logical, probably not.

Installed base =/= active installed base, that's what happening here and it is normal. Whether you measure it by gaming hours or yearly software sales, neither value is going to keep up with the units that get added to total hardware sales because people stop using their consoles regularly eventually, be it by playing less or not at all.

There's no such thing as perpetual growth in gaming hours or yearly software sales for any video game system. Values usually peak/plateau in year 2-4, afterwards its downhill despite total hardware sales still growing. The people who buy in late aren't great enough in numbers to offset the disinterest of people who bought a system earlier in the lifecycle. That's why console generations last 5-6 years, because the dynamics of the market demand it.

That could be the answer but that doesn't relate to the data we have here. I'm not even sure if MS have given us the data to find out the average gaming hours per user.

Basically, if everybody that bought a console played an average of, for argument's sake let's say 20 hours per month. The rise or fall of YoY hardware percentage increase/decrease wouldn't mirror the YoY gaming hours increase/decrease so we shouldn't really use this data to work out the average gaming hours per user.

Example;

Let's say we are into year 5 and the XB1 sold 1M a month every single month in the 4 years before and each gamer plays exactly 10 hours per month. Year 5 the XB1 is up 10% YoY in hardware for every month and every gamer still plays exactly 10 hours per month. Let's see how the gaming hours YoY percentage increase relates to hardware YoY  percentage increase compared to year 4.

Year 4
Jan - 1M sold - 37M LTD - 370M Total gaming hours per month (TGH) 
Feb - 1M sold - 38M LTD - 380M TGH
Mar - 1M sold - 39M LTD - 390M TGH
Apr - 1M Sold - 40M LTD - 400M TGH
....

Year 5
Jan - 1.1M sold (Up 10% YoY) - 49.1M LTD - 491 TGH (Up 33% YoY)
Feb - 1.1M sold (Up 10% YoY) - 50.2M LTD - 502M TGH (Up 32% YoY)
Mar - 1.1M sold (Up 10% YoY) - 51.3M LTD - 513M TGH (Up 32% YoY)
Apr - 1.1M sold (Up 10% YoY) - 52.4 LTD - 524 TGH (Up 31% YoY)

 

Now let's look at same scenario but with a hardware up 50% YoY.

Year 5 
Jan - 1.5M sold (Up 50% YoY) - 49.5M LTD - 495 TGH (Up 34% YoY)
Feb - 1.5M sold (Up 50% YoY) - 51M LTD - 510M TGH (Up 34% YoY)
Mar - 1.5M sold (Up 50% YoY) - 52.5M LTD - 525M TGH (Up 35% YoY)
Apr - 1.5M sold (Up 50% YoY) - 54M LTD - 540 TGH (Up 35% YoY)

Even with the second example showing a huge increase in hardware YoY sales percentage over example 1, the TGH between example 1 and 2 show little difference. 



SWORDF1SH said:

That could be the answer but that doesn't relate to the data we have here. I'm not even sure if MS have given us the data to find out the average gaming hours per user.

Basically, if everybody that bought a console played an average of, for argument's sake let's say 20 hours per month. The rise or fall of YoY hardware percentage increase/decrease wouldn't mirror the YoY gaming hours increase/decrease so we shouldn't really use this data to work out the average gaming hours per user.

(...)

You misunderstood what binary solo meant. I don't have exact numbers, but the increase in Xbox One ownership (41%) would refer to total hardware sold, not a year over year increase for any given month. For argument's sake, last year in January the XB1 reached 10m in the USA, now one year later it has reached 14.1m. However, number of gaming hours for January increased by only 21% year over year despite 41% more XB1s in people's homes.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes

RolStoppable said:
SWORDF1SH said:

That could be the answer but that doesn't relate to the data we have here. I'm not even sure if MS have given us the data to find out the average gaming hours per user.

Basically, if everybody that bought a console played an average of, for argument's sake let's say 20 hours per month. The rise or fall of YoY hardware percentage increase/decrease wouldn't mirror the YoY gaming hours increase/decrease so we shouldn't really use this data to work out the average gaming hours per user.

(...)

You misunderstood what binary solo meant. I don't have exact numbers, but the increase in Xbox One ownership (41%) would refer to total hardware sold, not a year over year increase for any given month. For argument's sake, last year in January the XB1 reached 10m in the USA, now one year later it has reached 14.1m. However, number of gaming hours for January increased by only 21% year over year despite 41% more XB1s in people's homes.

In that case I agree with your previous comment and agree with akaline too. 



RolStoppable said:
aLkaLiNE said:

Logical and easy explanation is much of the hardware growth came from the casual adopters that merely wanted a 4K blu ray player. This will skew attach/tie ratio negatively, but a sales a sale.

Easy explanation, yes. Logical, probably not.

Installed base =/= active installed base, that's what happening here and it is normal. Whether you measure it by gaming hours or yearly software sales, neither value is going to keep up with the units that get added to total hardware sales because people stop using their consoles regularly eventually, be it by playing less or not at all.

There's no such thing as perpetual growth in gaming hours or yearly software sales for any video game system. Values usually peak/plateau in year 2-4, afterwards its downhill despite total hardware sales still growing. The people who buy in late aren't great enough in numbers to offset the disinterest of people who bought a system earlier in the lifecycle. That's why console generations last 5-6 years, because the dynamics of the market demand it.

Honestly your post is confusing AF. According to you, Xbox should be in the peak/plateau range right? Years 2-4, we're in year 3. Then you start talking about people who bought in late, but what does that mean? Is late halfway through the lifecycle? 1 year? 2 years? And your last two sentences from what I understand are suggesting that a deficit is created where people who stop playing the console becomes higher than the people who are purchasing the console. Of course that happens, and this is what I think you were talking about when referring to no perpetual growth until the end of time, but we should definitely not be at that point yet, a mere 3 years into the gen. Which is why I think it IS logical to say that UHD has caused an influx of non gamers that wanted a cheap affordable blu Ray player. Which is why hardware growth has vastly outpaced gaming hours growth. I think over the next few months we should expect that hardware growth to disappear but gaming hours will remain flat or see growth, as the concentration of buyers will be gamers and more affordable options arise for UHD players.



Bandorr said:
So windows central just "happened" to have the numbers for two months - and that's it?
None before - none after?

Windows Central is used as an outlet for Microsoft PR at times. Therefore they'll only post numbers if it makes Microsoft looks good, which they can't really do this month. 



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KingofTrolls said:

How to pronounce it properly..

this is the quote from Windows Central comments.

U have opened Pandora Box sorry.

You need to visit VGChartz and do your own research on Japanese games in the west. They list them by region. People are buying the Xbox One. More now than ever. So that proves people aren't listening to the usual PS exclusive list BS. Most people I know with a PS4 bought it because it was more powerful for COD or Battlefiled. They don't buy Sonys exclusives. And again if you look at VGChartz you will see that Sonys exclusives outside Uncharted and GT don't actually sell much at all.

Must of missed all those big selling Xbox exclusives that aren't Halo or Gears

Amazing that people took this site seriously