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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - If Nintendo Switch fails this will be Nintendo last console.

DanneSandin on 08 November 2016
awesomeabe1998 said:
DanneSandin said:

You gotta consider that most people that own a Wii U probably also own a 3DS, which means around 60m people have a Nintendo console right now. I think THAT should be their goal. But then again, we need to consider that the handheld market has shrunk by half since the DS days, and we don't know if the Switch can reverse that. First and foremost, it'll cost more than the 3DS, making it a harder sell, and it doesn't offer the same power level as PS4 or Xbox1 (and even less so than the Pro and Scorpio), meaning that hardcore gamers won't buy it for that reason. What will sell the console is the games; a steady flow of Nintendo 1st party games. That alone might make it a secondary console for "core gamers", since you'll get ALL the Nintendo games on it.

I think that 30m means it didn't fail, 40m: it did ok, 50m; it did good, 60m; it did really good, 70m; Nintendo should be celebrating. Put it all comes down to price and games.

I honestly do not think the power level is a HUGE factor. As long as it is close to or on par with XB1 or PS4 then it will be okay. It just comes down to the games and marketing. Im pretty sure almost half of the 3DS install base will probably pick up a Switch because it does what the 3DS does and maybe even better. I think at least 7 million of the Wii U install base will pick up the Switch because they actually bought the Wii U regardless of its many many many flaws. 

I think 50-60 million would be a perfect number to hit. Anything above that is amazing numbers. If it hits 80 million then that will be astonishing.

As long as we're talking about "core gamers", then yeah, it is. Core gamers are really picky about that - it's one of the reasons why PS4 is doing so much better than the X1 right now. People that enjoy Halo, CoD, Battlefield, Battlefront, Uncharted and other games like that won't choose Switch over XB1 or PS4 if it can't compete graphically. Which it won't. What Nintendo needs to do is expand their audience, and I'm not entirely convinced the Switch will be ble to do that to a large enough degree - not will the info we have now.

Yes, 50-60m units sold would be great, and everything else above that is amazing, like you said. Maybe they have some awesome feutures in the Switch we don't know of yet that will push it to even higher numbers.



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DanneSandin on 08 November 2016
DM235 said:
awesomeabe1998 said:

I honestly do not think the power level is a HUGE factor. As long as it is close to or on par with XB1 or PS4 then it will be okay. It just comes down to the games and marketing. Im pretty sure almost half of the 3DS install base will probably pick up a Switch because it does what the 3DS does and maybe even better. I think at least 7 million of the Wii U install base will pick up the Switch because they actually bought the Wii U regardless of its many many many flaws. 

I think 50-60 million would be a perfect number to hit. Anything above that is amazing numbers. If it hits 80 million then that will be astonishing.

I think that power level will be a huge factor.  If the system is not on par with PS4 / XBox One, then it will be much harder for 3rd parties to port games to the Switch.  If that happens, you will have software droughts, which would lead to less sales, and a repeat of what happened with Wii U.

I don't think we'll see any serious droughts though, Nintendo will be able to give this console its entire attention and only make games for this one console. Droughts shouldn't be a problem then.



I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.

DM235 on 08 November 2016
awesomeabe1998 said:
DM235 said:

I think that power level will be a huge factor.  If the system is not on par with PS4 / XBox One, then it will be much harder for 3rd parties to port games to the Switch.  If that happens, you will have software droughts, which would lead to less sales, and a repeat of what happened with Wii U.

Rumours suggest it is not that far off from the Xbox One. Betheseda who stated that they will only support the Switch if it is as powerful as the Xbox One are supposedly supporting it. A bunch of devs have also expressed interest in the NS. There will probably also be waaaaaaaaaay more first parties releasing on the console because Nintendo's resources are combined now So far it looks good. I guess we will just have to find out.

There are rumours that the NS only has 4 GB of RAM, compared to 8 GB on other consoles, which may be a problem.  The port of Skyrim could be something that Nintendo sponsored, so it could be a 1 time deal.  We won't know until January what games are actually available, since it seems Nintendo wants to keep everything secret until then.



Soundwave on 08 November 2016

A Switch "failure" will mean both Nintendo's console and portable divisions have failed them and as such is pretty much game over for their hardware days I think. I mean yes, financially they could make more hardware but you're talking about 3/4 consoles (75% of the time) disappointing and your portable division going down the toilet, I think Nintendo would in that case just focus on other things.

Never say never, but I don't think even they can fuck up that badly, 40 million at minimum should be obtainable. I could be wrong though.



DanneSandin on 08 November 2016
Soundwave said:
A Switch "failure" will mean both Nintendo's console and portable divisions have failed them and as such is pretty much game over for their hardware days I think. I mean yes, financially they could make more hardware but you're talking about 3/4 consoles (75% of the time) disappointing and your portable division going down the toilet, I think Nintendo would in that case just focus on other things.

Never say never, but I don't think even they can fuck up that badly, 40 million at minimum should be obtainable. I could be wrong though.

Yeah, I feel that 40m should be obtainable, but selling around 50-60m would be better



I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.

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Kai_Mao on 08 November 2016
DanneSandin said:
awesomeabe1998 said:

I honestly do not think the power level is a HUGE factor. As long as it is close to or on par with XB1 or PS4 then it will be okay. It just comes down to the games and marketing. Im pretty sure almost half of the 3DS install base will probably pick up a Switch because it does what the 3DS does and maybe even better. I think at least 7 million of the Wii U install base will pick up the Switch because they actually bought the Wii U regardless of its many many many flaws. 

I think 50-60 million would be a perfect number to hit. Anything above that is amazing numbers. If it hits 80 million then that will be astonishing.

As long as we're talking about "core gamers", then yeah, it is. Core gamers are really picky about that - it's one of the reasons why PS4 is doing so much better than the X1 right now. People that enjoy Halo, CoD, Battlefield, Battlefront, Uncharted and other games like that won't choose Switch over XB1 or PS4 if it can't compete graphically. Which it won't. What Nintendo needs to do is expand their audience, and I'm not entirely convinced the Switch will be ble to do that to a large enough degree - not will the info we have now.

Yes, 50-60m units sold would be great, and everything else above that is amazing, like you said. Maybe they have some awesome feutures in the Switch we don't know of yet that will push it to even higher numbers.

That's why Nintendo is taking the initiative to start expanding awareness of their IPs, using mobile, TV shows, theme parks, amiibo/merchandise, films, etc. Once the Switch gets off the ground, we'll see more projects on the horizon to promote these IPs.



GoOnKid on 08 November 2016
Jranation said:
Its not even a console XD

Now you, too? xD



DanneSandin on 08 November 2016
Kai_Mao said:
DanneSandin said:

As long as we're talking about "core gamers", then yeah, it is. Core gamers are really picky about that - it's one of the reasons why PS4 is doing so much better than the X1 right now. People that enjoy Halo, CoD, Battlefield, Battlefront, Uncharted and other games like that won't choose Switch over XB1 or PS4 if it can't compete graphically. Which it won't. What Nintendo needs to do is expand their audience, and I'm not entirely convinced the Switch will be ble to do that to a large enough degree - not will the info we have now.

Yes, 50-60m units sold would be great, and everything else above that is amazing, like you said. Maybe they have some awesome feutures in the Switch we don't know of yet that will push it to even higher numbers.

That's why Nintendo is taking the initiative to start expanding awareness of their IPs, using mobile, TV shows, theme parks, amiibo/merchandise, films, etc. Once the Switch gets off the ground, we'll see more projects on the horizon to promote these IPs.

So far, we've seen VERY little of that. Have they truly ramped up merchandising? I haven't seen any of that. The only thing they've ramped up so far is the theme park and their mobile precense.



I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.

Miyamotoo on 08 November 2016
SpokenTruth said:
KLXVER said:

Fair enough. I just hope they really go for it with the Switch.

Do not forget that their home console and portable development teams merged recently.

Yup, another important thing. Before they had separate handheld and home console teams, separate handheld and home console teams for hardware and software, and I think last year they integrated them. Now we have one integrated hardware division and one integrated software division.

 

 

JRPGfan said:
DanneSandin said:
I agree that if it only sell like 10 million units, it'll be a failure and Nintendo will move away from the console market, or become a 3rd party publisher. But that's not gonna happen. I think will a total sell through of 30m Nintendo will be happy, anything above will be a bonus. I'm guessing around 40m when it's all said and done - and that's without knowing price or anything.

Wii U (13m) + 3DS (60m) = 73m+ total.

If the Switch is their new handheld + homeconsole in one, they need to sell 70m+ for it to have really payed off from where they currently are.


Nintendo cant and shouldnt be happy with just 30m sales for the Switch.

I really don't think Nintendo calculate like that, they are aware that standalone handheld device each generation whould have less and less sales because of mobile and tablets (actualy one of reasons why they relasing Switch). Also have on mind that with 3DS and Wii U they had R&D costs for two totaly difrent platforms for hardware and software, and two marketing costs, with Switch they have costs of only one platform. So even Switch aiming handheld and home console market is same time, it's still one console/device. So saying that Switch need to sell more than 70m to be successful isn't true.

Saying that, I think Nintendo would be satisfied if Switch sells 50m+, but selling less than than doesnt mean its faile.



Johnw1104 on 08 November 2016

Nintendo is in great shape. I really see little reason for them to give up even if the switch doesn't sell well.

This isn't like sega and the dreamcast where even while selling like hot cakes they were hemorrhaging money and had already been on life support. Nintendo, while needing to keep shareholders happy, are still in superb overall shape, have long been smart investors, have always shown a knack for coming up with money making ideas and products, and via mobile/planned movies and even a theme park wing appear to be growing brand awareness as opposed to fading away.

I just don't see any reason to predict doom for them.