Wii U (13m) + 3DS (60m) = 73m+ total.

If the Switch is their new handheld + homeconsole in one, they need to sell 70m+ for it to have really payed off from where they currently are.

Nintendo cant and shouldnt be happy with just 30m sales for the Switch.

You gotta consider that most people that own a Wii U probably also own a 3DS, which means around 60m people have a Nintendo console right now. I think THAT should be their goal. But then again, we need to consider that the handheld market has shrunk by half since the DS days, and we don't know if the Switch can reverse that. First and foremost, it'll cost more than the 3DS, making it a harder sell, and it doesn't offer the same power level as PS4 or Xbox1 (and even less so than the Pro and Scorpio), meaning that hardcore gamers won't buy it for that reason. What will sell the console is the games; a steady flow of Nintendo 1st party games. That alone might make it a secondary console for "core gamers", since you'll get ALL the Nintendo games on it.

I think that 30m means it didn't fail, 40m: it did ok, 50m; it did good, 60m; it did really good, 70m; Nintendo should be celebrating. Put it all comes down to price and games.

You gotta consider that most people that own a Wii U probably also own a 3DS, which means around 60m people have a Nintendo console right now. I think THAT should be their goal. But then again, we need to consider that the handheld market has shrunk by half since the DS days, and we don't know if the Switch can reverse that. First and foremost, it'll cost more than the 3DS, making it a harder sell, and it doesn't offer the same power level as PS4 or Xbox1 (and even less so than the Pro and Scorpio), meaning that hardcore gamers won't buy it for that reason. What will sell the console is the games; a steady flow of Nintendo 1st party games. That alone might make it a secondary console for "core gamers", since you'll get ALL the Nintendo games on it.

I think that 30m means it didn't fail, 40m: it did ok, 50m; it did good, 60m; it did really good, 70m; Nintendo should be celebrating. Put it all comes down to price and games.

Yeah, the basic console should be no more than that. Maybe a 300$ bundle with a Pro controller and a 350$ bundle with Zelda and a Pro controller.

I honestly do not think the power level is a HUGE factor. As long as it is close to or on par with XB1 or PS4 then it will be okay. It just comes down to the games and marketing. Im pretty sure almost half of the 3DS install base will probably pick up a Switch because it does what the 3DS does and maybe even better. I think at least 7 million of the Wii U install base will pick up the Switch because they actually bought the Wii U regardless of its many many many flaws. 

I think 50-60 million would be a perfect number to hit. Anything above that is amazing numbers. If it hits 80 million then that will be astonishing.

I think that power level will be a huge factor.  If the system is not on par with PS4 / XBox One, then it will be much harder for 3rd parties to port games to the Switch.  If that happens, you will have software droughts, which would lead to less sales, and a repeat of what happened with Wii U.

Not even that many. Ive had three 3DSs myself. It probably closer to 50M.