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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - (Update: 100 million mark reached!)Prediction:Switch will go on to sell 100+ million units

curl-6 on 25 October 2016
Soundwave said:
Nem said:
It really won't.

It's too big to be seen as a popular portable.
Its too weak to be a popular home console.

It's a cute Nintendo system, but i don't see it blowing up to 100m, even if it manages to take off and they phase their portable market into it... i don't see it doing more than 40-50m.

I think Nintendo would be relatively happy with 50 million. Considering the DS-to-3DS transition cost them like 80 million lost sales in that transition, if they can stem the bleeding from 60-65 million 3DS' to 50 million Switch units, they'll be relatively pleased I think. 

Plus their console franchises will finally have a good size userbase to sell to, the Wii U's low userbase was killing them internally I think it was driving them crazy. They were spending more money to make the games but having a lower userbase to sell them to, getting back to at least a Super NES userbase size would be good. 

To get to that 100 million range you need to have some kind of new IP (or two or three) blow up and really take you there. 

All the Mario & Zelda & Pokemon in the world doesn't get you to 100 million, Nintendo would need something new to really blow up like Wii Sports or Pokemon for the Game Boy. 

Agreed, given the steep decline from DS to 3DS and Wii to Wii U, I think Switch doing 50 million and turning a decent profit would be a relative win. At this point, their immediate worry is stabilizing their downward spiral. If their rate of decline from last gen to current gen remains constant, that would mean 25 million lifetime sales for Switch, and that would be disastrous.



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zorg1000 on 25 October 2016
Soundwave said:
Nem said:
It really won't.

It's too big to be seen as a popular portable.
Its too weak to be a popular home console.

It's a cute Nintendo system, but i don't see it blowing up to 100m, even if it manages to take off and they phase their portable market into it... i don't see it doing more than 40-50m.

I think Nintendo would be relatively happy with 50 million. Considering the DS-to-3DS transition cost them like 80 million lost sales in that transition, if they can stem the bleeding from 60-65 million 3DS' to 50 million Switch units, they'll be relatively pleased I think. 

Plus their console franchises will finally have a good size userbase to sell to, the Wii U's low userbase was killing them internally I think it was driving them crazy. They were spending more money to make the games but having a lower userbase to sell them to, getting back to at least a Super NES userbase size would be good. 

To get to that 100 million range you need to have some kind of new IP (or two or three) blow up and really take you there. 

All the Mario & Zelda & Pokemon in the world doesn't get you to 100 million, Nintendo would need something new to really blow up like Wii Sports or Pokemon for the Game Boy. 

No way in hell Nintendo will be happy with 50 million, that will be close to a 40% decline from 3DS+Wii U.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Soundwave on 25 October 2016
zorg1000 said:
Soundwave said:

I think Nintendo would be relatively happy with 50 million. Considering the DS-to-3DS transition cost them like 80 million lost sales in that transition, if they can stem the bleeding from 60-65 million 3DS' to 50 million Switch units, they'll be relatively pleased I think. 

Plus their console franchises will finally have a good size userbase to sell to, the Wii U's low userbase was killing them internally I think it was driving them crazy. They were spending more money to make the games but having a lower userbase to sell them to, getting back to at least a Super NES userbase size would be good. 

To get to that 100 million range you need to have some kind of new IP (or two or three) blow up and really take you there. 

All the Mario & Zelda & Pokemon in the world doesn't get you to 100 million, Nintendo would need something new to really blow up like Wii Sports or Pokemon for the Game Boy. 

No way in hell Nintendo will be happy with 50 million, that will be close to a 40% decline from 3DS+Wii U.

It would be more along the lines of 30% decline, most Wii U owners are the most hardcore Nintendo fans, they likely own a 3DS in many cases as Wii U really failed to break out to a wider audience beyond the same ol' Nintendo fans. 

But their business will be different in the future, Switch is only one pillar, mobile apps will be a huge money maker for them and movies will probably factor into that too. 

50 million Switch + being one of the biggest mobile app makers in the world + movies/merchandising/theme parks > 3DS + Wii U. 

Unified userbase will increase the general sales of games like Splatoon and Mario Maker too. 

I think Switch is a more practical platform designed to "stop the bleeding" as it were from the last gen. The amount of losses they took from the Wii/DS to Wii U/3DS was catastrophic. 



Azhraell on 25 October 2016

I love these threads, not saying it won't but I would absolutely love for it not to happen, just for the meltdowns :^



Nautilus on 25 October 2016
leyendax69 said:
I love these threads, not saying it won't but I would absolutely love for it not to happen, just for the meltdowns :^

Then try to imagine the meltdown of denials if Nintendo managed to get a win for a change!



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

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zorg1000 on 25 October 2016
Soundwave said:
zorg1000 said:

No way in hell Nintendo will be happy with 50 million, that will be close to a 40% decline from 3DS+Wii U.

It would be more along the lines of 30% decline, most Wii U owners are the most hardcore Nintendo fans, they likely own a 3DS in many cases as Wii U really failed to break out to a wider audience beyond the same ol' Nintendo fans. 

But their business will be different in the future, Switch is only one pillar, mobile apps will be a huge money maker for them and movies will probably factor into that too. 

50 million Switch + being one of the biggest mobile app makers in the world + movies/merchandising/theme parks > 3DS + Wii U. 

Unified userbase will increase the general sales of games like Splatoon and Mario Maker too. 

I think Switch is a more practical platform designed to "stop the bleeding" as it were from the last gen. The amount of losses they took from the Wii/DS to Wii U/3DS was catastrophic. 

Regardless of multi-device owners, that is still a 40% decrease in unit sales which is the exact opposite of "stop the bleeding" and will not make them happy.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Pinkie_pie on 25 October 2016
Nautilus said:
leyendax69 said:
I love these threads, not saying it won't but I would absolutely love for it not to happen, just for the meltdowns :^

Then try to imagine the meltdown of denials if Nintendo managed to get a win for a change!

What win? Switch selling more than ps4? No chance



Nautilus on 25 October 2016
Pinkie_pie said:
Nautilus said:

Then try to imagine the meltdown of denials if Nintendo managed to get a win for a change!

What win? Switch selling more than ps4? No chance

See?It will be PRICELESS!!!!



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

WagnerPaiva on 25 October 2016

It is the first console ever that is also a mascot! It will sell hundreds of millions =)



My grammar errors are justified by the fact that I am a brazilian living in Brazil. I am also very stupid.

Nem on 25 October 2016
Soundwave said:
Nem said:
It really won't.

It's too big to be seen as a popular portable.
Its too weak to be a popular home console.

It's a cute Nintendo system, but i don't see it blowing up to 100m, even if it manages to take off and they phase their portable market into it... i don't see it doing more than 40-50m.

I think Nintendo would be relatively happy with 50 million. Considering the DS-to-3DS transition cost them like 80 million lost sales in that transition, if they can stem the bleeding from 60-65 million 3DS' to 50 million Switch units, they'll be relatively pleased I think. 

Plus their console franchises will finally have a good size userbase to sell to, the Wii U's low userbase was killing them internally I think it was driving them crazy. They were spending more money to make the games but having a lower userbase to sell them to, getting back to at least a Super NES userbase size would be good. 

To get to that 100 million range you need to have some kind of new IP (or two or three) blow up and really take you there. 

All the Mario & Zelda & Pokemon in the world doesn't get you to 100 million, Nintendo would need something new to really blow up like Wii Sports or Pokemon for the Game Boy. 

I think they would aswell. But tbh, that was my most generous prediction. In reality i'm still unconvinced it will do much better than the Wii U and the GC. Maybe if they have an actual strong flow of software this time around. But, i'm pretty sure western 3rd party support will dry up really fast as usual.