depends how well ps3 does in 2008 and 2009. if the ps3 does excellently
passing 360 in europe(and maybe north america) and in worldwide sales it may be released as early as christmas 2009 but if the ps3 doesnt achieve these things mid 2010 early 2011. the xbox 720 will probably have a blu-ray
drive and pack a bit more graphical power than ps3 but if ps3 has 40 to 45
million consoles sold by then the 720 could be dooomed.

I think it will arrive sometime between Christmas 2009 and Christmas 2010. If the 360 sales have dropped a considerable amount by then, and if the Wii has overtaken the 360 in America, I could see Microsoft dropping it like a rock. The majority of the support of consoles would have to be behind the Wii/Ps3 first though, and games on 360 would have to slow down...two things that look like they aren't happening soon.

people percive the 360 doing poorly, but you must remeber software, not hardware is where the money is, there microfsoft is doing very well, and downloads and xbox live will only add to that. for them to launch early, there would have o be a complete with draw of 3rd parties and colapse of first. the withdraw of third parties will not happen till ps3 has a greater install base in america, it may only make up 50%-40% of the game market now going forward, but that is money you dont want to loose... where MS must make strides is in europe, much better than last gen, but they do need hardware sales, at 2/3 off sonys at gen end, and they need people to buy more games for the 360 per console both do able.



2014-2015 it would not make economic sence to have it out earlier, mainly because games revenue and alternative revenue is good, for it. i see nintendo pushing their next console whenever microsoft has theirs ready and sony weighting their options, though having a unit ready to ship

an early start for either maker before say 2013 will be bad, it could cause a faild generation, parents will percive it as more of a waste in money than before, and unless costs are undercontrol for production before hand could lead to a gen that does not make money up invested in it, and is not significatly bought into.

 remeber rushing consoles is what did sega in, well that and ea being paid off by sony 

Its hillarious how people are saying its all doom & gloom for MS. Sony has lost massive market share when compared to the ps2 while the 360 is doing far better than the xbox 1. Yet somehow Microsoft is getting it out of the market after this generation when they actually will produce a profit? Negative. You nay sayers are nuts.

My guess for the next xbox is late 2010 / 2011

2010 or around there. Microsoft IS making money this generation. Over the lifetime of the Xbox360, in the next 7 years they will make back all the losses on the Xbox1/2 so anything they earn on the Nextbox will be profit. I wouldn't be surprised if they were making $100 on the Elite and $50 on the Pro. They also make probably $25 profit on every gold subscriber, so I would say they'd be earning $200,000,000 just from that. I would also estimate that that are making $14 million and rising from royalties on the Xbox games every month. They would be making $30 on every controller sold too. More than half of all Xboxes have a second controller most likely.

I find it amazing that some of you have said the next xbox could be coming as early as late 09.
If this was the case, would Sony even bother on countering it?
I am sure Sony would release a new SKU of the PS3, but 09 is wayyy too soon for a new generation. Especially since devs still are unable to max out consoles, and will not be able to do so for some time still. Meaning if the 720 did launch in 09 or 2010, then any third party games developed for it would most likely have no problem porting to the PS3.

Also with the possibilities of releasing new updated sku's, i expect this gen to last until 2011 at the least. But I do agree that it is looking like Microsoft will again be first to the market. Why? because they have to be.

I reckon if its down-load based and does not use optical media then ms will push for 2010, if its optical media still they'll probably do 2011 and get a bit more profit from current machine.

2011-2012

Probably 2010-2012. But Microsoft need to do really well with the next Xbox or drop out.

They can either drop out gracefully (like NEC) or die a slow and painful death (like Sega).