people percive the 360 doing poorly, but you must remeber software, not hardware is where the money is, there microfsoft is doing very well, and downloads and xbox live will only add to that. for them to launch early, there would have o be a complete with draw of 3rd parties and colapse of first. the withdraw of third parties will not happen till ps3 has a greater install base in america, it may only make up 50%-40% of the game market now going forward, but that is money you dont want to loose... where MS must make strides is in europe, much better than last gen, but they do need hardware sales, at 2/3 off sonys at gen end, and they need people to buy more games for the 360 per console both do able.
2014-2015 it would not make economic sence to have it out earlier, mainly because games revenue and alternative revenue is good, for it. i see nintendo pushing their next console whenever microsoft has theirs ready and sony weighting their options, though having a unit ready to ship
an early start for either maker before say 2013 will be bad, it could cause a faild generation, parents will percive it as more of a waste in money than before, and unless costs are undercontrol for production before hand could lead to a gen that does not make money up invested in it, and is not significatly bought into.
remeber rushing consoles is what did sega in, well that and ea being paid off by sony
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