Hmm... but if you are using an external controller to play and an external screen to view... what good is the phone for? It's just a tinier box. Also, a big problem with phones is that there are loads of different versions with different specs. Gaming couldnt be unified on it unless their model for selling more changed. I really don't see these markets merging together. They have different business styles. Most that buy phones don't do it for gaming aswell.

Never said it would be a good idea, just that people think smartphones will get so powerfull and battery efficient that you wouldn't need a console... and would be completely wireless and extremely portable... I don't like the idea, I like my big boxes =] even more when they have a cool design.

Challenge Accepted!

I say:

Wii U 18 Mio.
Xbox One 55 Mio.
Playstation 4 140 Mio.

(by the end of 2019)

You'll see!

You could be right no doubt, but to flat out disagree with me is wrong.

Reasons why I think this gen will be shorter.

Front loaded - To me this is due the the internet generation, information on tap, little to no lag time to news and information reaching the public at a much more larger scale (main source of information 10 years ago was magazines that took time to write and release usually on a monthly basis. even then it was only bought by "hardcore fan"). Hype for these consoles were on a much larger scale at launch and aimed at a much more larger audience and not just the hardcore. PS4 and X1 featured on every major chat show in america. This just shifts sales more towards the front

Nintendo and MS - Wii U is selling poorly. X1 is selling poorly. Nintendo and MS will more and likely be looking to start a new gen sooner rather than later. Sony will not want to be releasing the PS5 to far behind them.

Some good points

But we won't know how front loaded the sales are until a few years down the line. Being more front loaded doesn't mean amount of sales but how much sales in the first years of its life account for total sales in its lifetime. We won't get an answer until the gen is done or at least until we start to see a decline.

I think the console user base has shrunk a lot since last gen and settling back to what we had in the 6th gen. This is due to the casuals gamers jumping onto the Wii bandwagon (also 360 and PS3 had a lot of casuals last gen but not on the scale of Wii) and not onto the Wii U (mobile gaming could be to blame). Something to that scale of influx of casual gamers we will probably not see this gen or ever again. So while the consoles collectively sold about 280M last gen, this gen we will be very lucky to see it hit 200M or even 150M. So while I expect the PS4 to hit around 90M life time, it will hit it faster but die out quicker.

Xb1 is going to be ahead of xb 360 while performing way worse in Europe and Japan? He has to be trolling.

He must be bored af

Ridiculous! PS4: 175 million. Xbox One: 75 million. Wii U: 15 million.

I think it makes sense to believe that consoles will eventually become obsolete. . But I don't think any current solution will "kill" the consoles. The smartphones still offer a lot of challenges like battery life, processing power and lack of unified specs. There are so many different smartphones in the market that I think in the end, the user base for AAA games is way smaller than it is on consoles, the same reason why the user base on PCs is always smaller, even though everybody has a PC. Maybe the smartphones will get so cheap that everyone will have high end ones. Streaming is a good solution but it's not going to happen soon, there are still countries with no access to good quality internet, a normal console with optional streaming is more likely. I think the problem consoles are facing now is the full migration of the casual market. 15 years ago, casual players would buy consoles to play games like Rock Band, Tony Hawk's Pro Skater or Mario Party. They are not going to do that anymore because there are cheaper options available. Can the market survive without those consumers?

You could have easily added the PS4's figures to this chart, why not? I know you are trying to paint as positive picture for the PS4 as much as you possibly can but you must also realize that no platform from this point on will have support similar to the PS2 or PS1. The PS4 will never have the kind of support the PS2 enjoyed, the PS2 had exclusive 3rd party support or timed exclusives. The PS4 has none of that and is in a war for the US with Xbox One. The PS2 was never gonna be challenged, let alone actually beat during the holidays in the US. The Wii was untouched during the holidays in its early years. The PS4 has already been beaten and could very well be beaten again this holiday in the US. Thats why so many find it hard to believe this thing can put up the kind of figures some are hoping for. It is more compareble to PS3, which lost its legs much faster than people expected. The same will happen to PS4 simply because it will never get 3rd party exclusives.