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SWORDF1SH on 21 September 2015
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Shadow1980 said:
SWORDF1SH said:

You could be right no doubt, but to flat out disagree with me is wrong.

Reasons why I think this gen will be shorter.

I think it'll be shorter for different reasons. Namely, last generation was protracted, with delayed peaks for the 360 & PS3 relative to other consoles (1-3 years is the norm; other than the PS3 & 360, only the Genesis peaked later than the third full year). Personally, I think this was a combination of the Wii depressing sales of the PS360 and the more modest price cuts relative to their starting prices the 360 & PS3 both got. But this generation we'll probably go back to the 5-6 year norm instead of the 8-year gap we saw between the 360 and XBO & PS4.

Front loaded - To me this is due the the internet generation, information on tap, little to no lag time to news and information reaching the public at a much more larger scale (main source of information 10 years ago was magazines that took time to write and release usually on a monthly basis. even then it was only bought by "hardcore fan"). Hype for these consoles were on a much larger scale at launch and aimed at a much more larger audience and not just the hardcore. PS4 and X1 featured on every major chat show in america. This just shifts sales more towards the front

It's not that front-loaded. Sure, they had very strong record-setting launch holidays, but not drastically higher than some past systems. Combined PS4 & XBO sales in 2014 were a little over 9 million units, less than the roughly 9.4M the PS2 & Xbox sold in their first years combined (if you align their launches, since the Xbox debuted a year after the PS2). Overall, if you ignore Nintendo, the current generation is selling well within 21st-century norms.

Nintendo and MS - Wii U is selling poorly. X1 is selling poorly. Nintendo and MS will more and likely be looking to start a new gen sooner rather than later. Sony will not want to be releasing the PS5 to far behind them.

Nintendo is setting themselves up to be in an awkward position if the NX launches too early. If it's another unconventional system, then it won't really shape the trajectory of the eighth generation much. Also, the XBO is only doing "poorly" in terms of global sales. In the U.S. it is doing quite well despite usually ending up in second place each month. According to NPD data it's actually been outpacing both of its predecessors so far.

Some good points

But we won't know how front loaded the sales are until a few years down the line. Being more front loaded doesn't mean amount of sales but how much sales in the first years of its life account for total sales in its lifetime. We won't get an answer until the gen is done or at least until we start to see a decline.

I think the console user base has shrunk a lot since last gen and settling back to what we had in the 6th gen. This is due to the casuals gamers jumping onto the Wii bandwagon (also 360 and PS3 had a lot of casuals last gen but not on the scale of Wii) and not onto the Wii U (mobile gaming could be to blame). Something to that scale of influx of casual gamers we will probably not see this gen or ever again. So while the consoles collectively sold about 280M last gen, this gen we will be very lucky to see it hit 200M or even 150M. So while I expect the PS4 to hit around 90M life time, it will hit it faster but die out quicker.