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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - If the NX doesn't come out in 2016, where will the "Nintendo-like" profits come from?

Ruler said:
Who says that a console launch is profitable in the first place? The wiiu launch wasnt profitable in its year

The faster you launch something and the faster it takes off, the faster you get to get to a high profit zone. 

3DS is winding down, it's pretty obvious that even the N3DS model has not boosted sales in the long term. They need something else to drive their profitibility. 

Waiting until 2017 means Nintendo is waiting until at least 2018 or 2019 in that case to realize solid profits again. 



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Tlozjb said:
The answer to that is simple:

- Software sales, including the legs of the already existing sales
- QoL
- Mobile app games
- amiibo figures (including whatever retailers pay to get a figure as a exclusive)
- amiibo cards
- The amiibo NFC adapter for 3DS
- Faceplates
- Hardware sales
- DLC*
- Eshop sales
- Platform Royalties

All of that could lead to the "Nintendo-like" profits that Iwata-sama spoke about without the need of a new console launch. So no, the "Nintendo-like" profit forecars for the next FY doesn't mean anything about the state of the NX.

* Iwata-sama suggested that there was more MK8 DLC in the way, and we already know there are more SSB4 in the way that is going to be fan service by Sakurai's words.


Yes, faceplates and platform royalties. Oh yeah don't forget the e-reader2...oops I mean amiibo cards. I feel like you have a very tenuous grasp on reality.



"Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth." -My good friend Mark Aurelius

The Wii U and 3DS are sold at profit now. And Amiibo's are very profitable.



    

NNID: FrequentFlyer54

MoHasanie said:
The Wii U and 3DS are sold at profit now. And Amiibo's are very profitable.


Unfortunately it's a declining profit pool, because 3DS is receding, the 7 million or so 3DS shipments this year represents Nintendo's lowest handheld shipment in almost 20 years and that decline will get even worse next year. 

Wii U is really not gaining any real momentum at all, it's stuck its mediocre 3 mill/year shipment pattern which is very bad also. So they can't count on Wii U to make up the slack either, it's a Mario Kart player stuck in the mud spinning his/her wheels. 

For Nintendo to be healthy and strong they need to be shipping in the range of 20+ million hardware units a year, this was the norm even in the GBA-GCN era, for them to be scraping by at only 10-11 combined handheld + console shipments a year is getting into very low territory. 

That's to say nothing of software, when you have hardware selling this poorly, software sales suffer. Yes, Splatoon is doing alright on the Wii U, but on a healthier platform it would be selling double or triple that easily. 



homer said:
Tlozjb said:
The answer to that is simple:

- Software sales, including the legs of the already existing sales
- QoL
- Mobile app games
- amiibo figures (including whatever retailers pay to get a figure as a exclusive)
- amiibo cards
- The amiibo NFC adapter for 3DS
- Faceplates
- Hardware sales
- DLC*
- Eshop sales
- Platform Royalties

All of that could lead to the "Nintendo-like" profits that Iwata-sama spoke about without the need of a new console launch. So no, the "Nintendo-like" profit forecars for the next FY doesn't mean anything about the state of the NX.

* Iwata-sama suggested that there was more MK8 DLC in the way, and we already know there are more SSB4 in the way that is going to be fan service by Sakurai's words.


Yes, faceplates and platform royalties. Oh yeah don't forget the e-reader2...oops I mean amiibo cards. I feel like you have a very tenuous grasp on reality.


I know that faceplates do pathetically, but even if little they still leave a small amount of profit, so I putted them in the list of things that all combined with lead to "Nintendo-like" profits.   Platform Royalties may also not be much, but next year there are some big hitters, Yokai Watch 3, Bravely Second in the West, Monster Hunter Stories, they should leave a good amount all together in platform royalties.  amiibo cards, they may cost a small amount, but  that is exactly what could lead to them become quite big, and once all of that comes together it will do quite well and leave some good profit, specially since Japan loves Animal Crossing, and if they do a Pokemon set of amiibo cards, the profits out of them will be even higher. 



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-1 = Negabeasting. -5= NegaRampage. -10 = NegaBurst

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Soundwave said:
MoHasanie said:
The Wii U and 3DS are sold at profit now. And Amiibo's are very profitable.


Unfortunately it's a declining profit pool, because 3DS is receding, the 7 million or so 3DS shipments this year represents Nintendo's lowest handheld shipment in almost 20 years and that decline will get even worse next year. 

Wii U is really not gaining any real momentum at all, it's stuck its mediocre 3 mill/year shipment pattern which is very bad also. So they can't count on Wii U to make up the slack either, it's a Mario Kart player stuck in the mud spinning his/her wheels. 

For Nintendo to be healthy and strong they need to be shipping in the range of 20+ million hardware units a year, this was the norm even in the GBA-GCN era, for them to be scraping by at only 10-11 combined handheld + console shipments a year is getting into very low territory. 

That's to say nothing of software, when you have hardware selling this poorly, software sales suffer. Yes, Splatoon is doing alright on the Wii U, but on a healthier platform it would be selling double or triple that easily. 

I agree but there's nothing Nintendo can do about it. Of course Nintendo wants them to sell better but their consoles have reached the end of their lives. 



    

NNID: FrequentFlyer54

GTstation said:
From games. By a major corporate shake up that achieves an entirely new company direction.

NX can coexist with Nintendo releasing on PC/PS4/Xbox. Mario Kart9 on those 3 and nx is a +30m seller.




Releasing Nintendo games on PC/PS4/Xbox would be last thing Nintendo would done, they would first try anything else than that: business expansions, mobile games, leveraging strength or they IPs in cartoons/movies, toys, theme parks...releasing new 2-3 consoles..and if all that can't secure them profit and make them a loose, than maybe, maybe, they will realase their games on PC/PS4/Xbox.

But trying all that things that I mentioned will require 5-10 years, and Nintendo in 2014. year with console that is their biggest flop ever and 3DS that will be their worst selling handheld and yet they managed to make $300m profit. And we already know that they realeased Amiibo, preparing QOL, NX, mobile games, Nintendo theme parks and further leveraging strength or they IPs...that will give them even bigger profit.

Also everybody knows that real Nintendo strength (what makes them so special with great and quality games) is that they have complete control of their software and having their own hardware that allow them to make things in every way they want.

So expecting Nintendo games on PC/PS4/Xbox is not wise and I think that could only expect or want someone who is not really good informed with gaming industry and Nintendo, don't realise how Nintendo works and what makes them if first place Nintendo or someone that really wants Nintendo games on PS and Xbox, in every way it not gonna happen.



patronmacabre said:
Even if the NX comes out in 2016, R&D for the platform will be costly.

The games schedule for 2016 is somewhat sparse for Nintendo platforms, as it seems the only real heavy hitter will be Zelda, at least from the games announced so far. An open world Zelda will also be extraordinarily costly for development and simply doesn't sell that phenomenally well.
I think Zelda U port and 3D Mario are almost certain for NX launch in 2016.





MoHasanie said:
Soundwave said:


Unfortunately it's a declining profit pool, because 3DS is receding, the 7 million or so 3DS shipments this year represents Nintendo's lowest handheld shipment in almost 20 years and that decline will get even worse next year. 

Wii U is really not gaining any real momentum at all, it's stuck its mediocre 3 mill/year shipment pattern which is very bad also. So they can't count on Wii U to make up the slack either, it's a Mario Kart player stuck in the mud spinning his/her wheels. 

For Nintendo to be healthy and strong they need to be shipping in the range of 20+ million hardware units a year, this was the norm even in the GBA-GCN era, for them to be scraping by at only 10-11 combined handheld + console shipments a year is getting into very low territory. 

That's to say nothing of software, when you have hardware selling this poorly, software sales suffer. Yes, Splatoon is doing alright on the Wii U, but on a healthier platform it would be selling double or triple that easily. 

I agree but there's nothing Nintendo can do about it. Of course Nintendo wants them to sell better but their consoles have reached the end of their lives. 


Well yeah. That's why you have to release new hardware to kickstart your business. So much is made is this board about releasing consoles too early, I think the reverse is actually more true. 

If you allow a generation to go on too long it can hurt you. 

Both Nintendo and MS even made a mistake in letting this past generation go on too long and who benefitted? Sony. It gave Sony time to remuster their resources, plan, and have enough time to make profit off the PS3 in the later years that they badly needed. Meanwhile people got sick and tired of the Wii, and by the time Nintendo came out with Wii U the reaction was more like "oh Nintendo, we lost interest in that like two years ago, thanks but we'll stick to our shiny new iPad now". 

Both the Wii/DS successors should have been released a year earlier. Waiting that extra year basically allowed Sony to get it together and allowed tablets/smartphones/freemium games to get further onto the battlefield so that when Nintendo rode out with their cavalry, they were surprised to find they were basically ambushed from every direction. 

You need to be on offence, not defence. 



Miyamotoo said:
GTstation said:
From games. By a major corporate shake up that achieves an entirely new company direction.

NX can coexist with Nintendo releasing on PC/PS4/Xbox. Mario Kart9 on those 3 and nx is a +30m seller.




Releasing Nintendo games on PC/PS4/Xbox would be last thing Nintendo would done, they would first try anything else than that: business expansions, mobile games, leveraging strength or they IPs in cartoons/movies, toys, theme parks...releasing new 2-3 consoles..and if all that can't secure them profit and make them a loose, than maybe, maybe, they will realase their games on PC/PS4/Xbox.

But trying all that things that I mentioned will require 5-10 years, and Nintendo in 2014. year with console that is their biggest flop ever and 3DS that will be their worst selling handheld and yet they managed to make $300m profit. And we already know that they realeased Amiibo, preparing QOL, NX, mobile games, Nintendo theme parks and further leveraging strength or they IPs...that will give them even bigger profit.

Also everybody knows that real Nintendo strength (what makes them so special with great and quality games) is that they have complete control of their software and having their own hardware that allow them to make things in every way they want.

So expecting Nintendo games on PC/PS4/Xbox is not wise and I think that could only expect or want someone who is not really good informed with gaming industry and Nintendo, don't realise how Nintendo works and what makes them if first place Nintendo or someone that really wants Nintendo games on PS and Xbox, in every way it not gonna happen.

Will take one forward thinking exec high up and they will be on pc/PS/xbox.  

And its very depandant on the success or failure of nx not much more.  

Everybody know thats what nintendo fans tell them selves, nothing more.  Any decent sized 3rd party dev has power to do wtf they want to do with their games.  

How nintendo works is exactly why they have been such failures in the market for the last few years, personally i dont really care if they survive or not or their competition.  But logically looking at the market and them in it its quite clear.  Their future is on other platforms, might happen fast or slow.  But its happening.  Them on moible is the first step, once they see the light of releasing on hardware they dont have to pay for they will spread their software all around.  ios android Playstation Steam, they them selves have no chance in hell of building anyt user base remotly their size.  

It is the simpelst logic possible.  They make games.  Releasing those games to the biggest possible audiences is the highest chance of success.  There is no logical counter argument.  Their hardware sales are dwindeling, as is their software.  Even their biggest fans are seeing that the time of handhleds is coming to an end even for ninty.  With one exception they have been on a decades long fall with their consoel sales.