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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Nintendo will become obsolete

Gamemaster87 on 12 July 2016

Mobile is their future. Pokemon Go proofs that.



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Conina on 12 July 2016

After just one week Pokemon proofs nothing about the best long term strategy. Will it keep its appeal for months or even years? Maybe, maybe not.



palou on 12 July 2016
SpokenTruth said:
Nintendo revenue last fiscal year (ended March 31st, 216) = ~$4.9 billion USD.

Pokemon Go daily revenue estimate = $1.6 million.

x 365 days = $584 million (if usage never drops). Nintendo will get ~10% (directly) + ~9% (Pokemon Company) = 19% of $584 million = ~$111 million.

~$4.9 billion > ~$111 million.


In other words, it would take 44 mobile hits equivalent to Pokemon Go every single year to replace their current business model.

I don't disagree with the sentiment, but the 1.6 million figure is iOS, US only. Worldwide, adding google play, 5 million would probably be the more accurate figure.



Bet with PeH: 

I win if Arms sells over 700 000 units worldwide by the end of 2017.

Bet with WagnerPaiva:

 

I win if Emmanuel Macron wins the french presidential election May 7th 2017.

Acevil on 12 July 2016
palou said:
SpokenTruth said:
Nintendo revenue last fiscal year (ended March 31st, 216) = ~$4.9 billion USD.

Pokemon Go daily revenue estimate = $1.6 million.

x 365 days = $584 million (if usage never drops). Nintendo will get ~10% (directly) + ~9% (Pokemon Company) = 19% of $584 million = ~$111 million.

~$4.9 billion > ~$111 million.


In other words, it would take 44 mobile hits equivalent to Pokemon Go every single year to replace their current business model.

I don't disagree with the sentiment, but the 1.6 million figure is iOS, US only. Worldwide, adding google play, 5 million would probably be the more accurate figure.

Basically that, also again that percentage number is just someone's analysis. 



 

Goodnightmoon on 12 July 2016
SpokenTruth said:
palou said:

I don't disagree with the sentiment, but the 1.6 million figure is iOS, US only. Worldwide, adding google play, 5 million would probably be the more accurate figure.

OK, $346 million.   Keep in mind it would need to sustain that level for an entire year to reach $346 million which is extemely dubious.

~$4.9 billion > ~$346 million.

You also wrong in your maths, Nintendo is actually getting close to 25%, they own 33% on Pokemon Company but they also own another company that owns a part of that company (so they own around a 43%) and they also own like a 5% of niantic.



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Nautilus on 12 July 2016
Soundwave said:
Nautilus said:
Nah, Nintendo is not leaving the hardware space.They know very well that what gives their good reputation is the actual games made for consoles, and thus leaving it behind would be a big mistake.I mean, lets say Nintendo went full mobile today.Short term speaking, they would amass a gigantic fortune, there is no doubt about it.But in the long term they would just lose influence and their IPs would suffer for it, since the games they make for mobile would be more of "mini games" rather than full fledged games, they would lose their fanbase and as we all know casuals are fickle.Not only that, Nintendo would eventually lose the reputation of making excellent games and well, one thing will led to another.

As I already said on other posts, the best would be to release a mobile game here and there, once every 6 months in my opinion so that you dont flood the market and make the launch an special ocassion every time it happens, and keep their focus on the dedicated market.That would be for the best.

Don't think Nintendo's shareholders will share that POV though. 

Clearly there is mounting evidence that Nintendo's IPs if anything have been held back by their hardware from reaching a wider audience. 

There's a lot of pressure now on NX to be a big hit, otherwise it will become an open question. 

Well, thats going to be the biggest challenge.The NX will certainly be really important for the future of the company whatever the result, but as long as the NX dosent crash and burn(be worse than Wii U for example), I dont think Nintendo will listen to the investors woes of going full mobile.I mean, they didnt do that in the past and to calm them, Nintendo will launch one or another mobile game.So I think we will be good for the foreseeable future.

Plus I dont think NX will fail, so I have that source of optimism!



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1