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Forums - Sales Discussion - Global Hardware Up 27 December 2014

Clyde32 said:
thelalaby said:

Wrong.

What makes you think Wii U will be up 20% YOY though? That is, of course, assuming it doesn't get adjusted down once we get official data... the last Yoshi and Kirby titles did only okay on the 3DS, and even back in the Wii days, Kirby barely scratched 2 million worldwide. To put things into perspective even more, Wii U was up by less than 5% YOY in November in the US, you know in the month that Smash U released, not to mention that it was down massively in Japan in November and December over last year.

Really, I'm curious. I'd love to hear what makes you so sure about this.


I believe he was talking about it coming close to the same time of e3. One week of good sales does not cover for 5 months of "bad" sales. Aside from Christmas, that always does the trick.

I'm not sure I understand what you're trying to say... care to elaborate?



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So the way VGC fixes the issue of getting from 17.3M to 18.5 million in 2 weeks for PS4 is to have very flat WoW between for 20 and 27 Dec. I was picking 500K for PS4 for this week (and 300K for Xb one). But there is some logic to flat WoW change with Chirstmas being quite late in the week, and for some countries boxing day sales are very much a thing, which will tend to prevent too big of a drop immediately post Christmas. OTOH Boxing day sales being not a thing at all in the USA means I'm a bit suspect at the -1% for Xb one and the +3% for PS4 in the USA.

I am glad to see that VGC will have PS4 matched with Sony's sell through official estimate "in real time" as it were.

Xb one is a certainty to cross 11 million by the new year. Good result. From my prediction in September (before any $50+ price cuts) I think the Xb one holiday sale gave Xb one an extra 1.5 million console sales, which is a decent boost to the install base.

It is going to be a painfully slow climb to 10 million for Wii U. It'll have at least 1 million units left to sell when the new year starts, and sales will be back in the 50K range very soon. Still the good news is that Wii U sold over 1 million in December, and over 1.5 million for Nov+Dec. It's not amazing, but it is helping the Wii U establish a reasonable install base, and more importantly, Wii U has now easily gone passed the abject failure milestones of the pathetically selling Dreamcast and Saturn. However it is still very much in danger of setting a new low point for a Nintendo home console, somewhere south of GC. Wii U will be doing well to sell 8 million consoles over the next 2 years, unless something miraculous happens, and that will just about be its lot, bringing it in well short of 20 million with hopefully a complete home console refresh, including dropping the stupid Wii name, hot in it's heels.



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WiiU always overtracked it seems. I wonder why we haven't had any adjustments for it like X1 and PS4 had..



MoHasanie said:
PS4 numbers make sense although X1 seems a bit too high.


70k in other regions seems a bit high



bubblegamer said:
WiiU always overtracked it seems. I wonder why we haven't had any adjustments for it like X1 and PS4 had..


Because Nintendo hasn't released any shipment/sales numbers recently

Expect some on the 27th, when they are releasing a quarterly report



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ohmylanta1003 said:
SJReiter said:
ohmylanta1003 said:
SJReiter said:
So Sony announces 18.5M PS4s shipped after the holiday season, and we now have PS4 at 18.1M as of December 27. That means PS4 is still over-tracked here, despite adjustments.


Sigh...we've only discussed this a million times. I know other people have already called you out for this post, but I just don't understand why you would post this after it's been clarified by everyone in many places around the internet that it's sold through.


Probably because I never read that. I don't read every thread on this site. I remembered a while back people were talking about how most times companies only report shipped numbers. I assumed this was the same case. Sorry. Chill daddy. 


I know. But it's been discussed in a lot of places. All I'm saying is it would be weird to post something without knowing the facts (in any scenario). And I'm not your dad.


TBH, if I made sure to know all the facts before posting anything on this site, I'd basically never say anything here. But yeah, it doesn't really matter. Looks like PS4 tracking is right on then. Hooray for all



thelalaby said:

I'm not sure I understand what you're trying to say... care to elaborate?


I'm saying, that what he means is 1 week of Mario Kart does not account for 5 months of sales. 



Would be nice if people gave the briefest of evidence when stating ''overtracked'' :)



ohmylanta1003 said:
Ninsect said:
ExplodingBlock said:
Wii U starting the year off with 9m! :D 10m before E3 is a given now

Far from it. WiiU sold less than 1m from the equivalent week last year to the beginning of June.

It needs 1.2m this year (pending adjustments). In other words, it will have to be up 20%, which I don't see happening.


There is more software coming out in the beginning of 2015 than there was in 2014, so I'm gonna have to disagree with you. If you'd like, we could bet on it.

Sure, what are the stakes? Just to be clear, we are talking sold to consumers, not shipped?



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ExplodingBlock said:
bubblegamer said:
WiiU always overtracked it seems. I wonder why we haven't had any adjustments for it like X1 and PS4 had..


Because Nintendo hasn't released any shipment/sales numbers recently

Expect some on the 27th, when they are releasing a quarterly report

Ah i see. Not that long from now then