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Has Wii U Reached Full Market Saturation?

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zorg1000 said:

It's possible the teams that have already released games on Wii U are currently working on games for its successor to release in 2016-2017. Nintendo has recently stated they are working on a 3D Mario but didn't specify what platform, it could very well be for the next-gen device and be a holiday 2016 launch title. Outside of working on DLC, the Mario Kart team is probably already working on the next installment which could be a Spring 2017 title. We have seen a trend of Zelda remakes releasing every 2 years (OoT-2011, WW-2013, MM-2015) so its very probable Twilight Princess HD is being planned for summer/fall 2017. Retro studios said they got started on a new project when DKC released, they also release a game roughly every 3 years (Prime-2002, Prime 2-2004, Prime 3-2007, DKC:R-2010, DKC:TF-2014) so a new Donkey Kong or Metroid game by them is probably going to release late 2016 or in 2017.

Also I truly believe Nintendo is going to go the route where the next handheld and console share a library so this will also help with releasing games in a timely manner.

Yes, these are things (except the second paragraph) that I have taken into account and you may notice that all of your expected development times result in game releases in late 2016 or early 2017. So a launch before holidays 2016 isn't feasible.

As for the second paragraph, while I do think that quite a few games will indeed be available in more or less the same form on home console and handheld, I doubt that the entire first party lineup will be identical. Think of it in the Wii and DS manner where different control inputs made it impossible for some games to appear on both, even if both systems had been equally powerful.



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RolStoppable said:

Yes, these are things (except the second paragraph) that I have taken into account and you may notice that all of your expected development times result in game releases in late 2016 or early 2017. So a launch before holidays 2016 isn't feasible.

As for the second paragraph, while I do think that quite a few games will indeed be available in more or less the same form on home console and handheld, I doubt that the entire first party lineup will be identical. Think of it in the Wii and DS manner where different control inputs made it impossible for some games to appear on both, even if both systems had been equally powerful.

@2nd. Of course, but that should be the exception rather than the rule.



Maybe the Wii U will have still some better times if Sony and Microsoft don't have another great year. This year there were the people which waited to buy a new console until there are greater deals and price drops. The Wii U had not this year because of the other consoles and there weren't such great offers. Maybe the Wii U will have a price drop which can encourage the people to buy one. But just MAYBE.



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It will continue to sell decently. But it'll never crush any sales record.



Troll_Whisperer said:
I think Nintendo will release a successor late 2016 at the latest.


2016. will be earliest for successor not  latest, I think that 2017. is safe bet, new console is proces that last several years, you need to make hardver and softver, and this year they started to make money with Wii U.



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No of course not. The market doesn't want to pay for a Wii U at its current price. Nintendo should have known this and dropped the price.



    

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SJReiter said:
cfin2987@gmail.com said:

 

No, it's actually quite the opposite. I'm sure if you studied market saturation you would understand this statement better.

 

I'd have to say 99 out of 100 people who are interested in the Wii U don't have one, but at the same time they either don't want a ps or xb1 or they have one and will be getting a Wii U as well at some point because it's a different experience.


Well, I sure hope you're right! Problem is though, if 9 of 10 people interested in a Wii U haven't gotten one yet, with the games it has now, I'm not really sure what else they're waiting for. Sure, maybe a price cut, but I feel like if you really want a Wii U, spending $300 now rather than, say, $250 a year from now shouldn't really be that big a deal for you. Idk though...

The Wii had the snowball effect. The Wii U's is only starting. People are taking notice finally due to seeing them in other peoples homes. The global downturn left the very people who want a Wii U without the extra $ to throw around. For the last few years they have fulfilled their needs with their new phone and the Wii, but now people are giving away their Wii's for free. Then they will once again, in true bad consumer awareness fashion, buy a new console. A Wii U.



I really tought wii U would increase like 50% from last year. But i presumed that they would cut the price, or offer a smash bundle, or a good oficial promotion at black friday. but none happens.
Now i believe that in 2015 it will sell more than in 2014, because some of these things will happen.



RolStoppable said:
zorg1000 said:

It's possible the teams that have already released games on Wii U are currently working on games for its successor to release in 2016-2017. Nintendo has recently stated they are working on a 3D Mario but didn't specify what platform, it could very well be for the next-gen device and be a holiday 2016 launch title. Outside of working on DLC, the Mario Kart team is probably already working on the next installment which could be a Spring 2017 title. We have seen a trend of Zelda remakes releasing every 2 years (OoT-2011, WW-2013, MM-2015) so its very probable Twilight Princess HD is being planned for summer/fall 2017. Retro studios said they got started on a new project when DKC released, they also release a game roughly every 3 years (Prime-2002, Prime 2-2004, Prime 3-2007, DKC:R-2010, DKC:TF-2014) so a new Donkey Kong or Metroid game by them is probably going to release late 2016 or in 2017.

Also I truly believe Nintendo is going to go the route where the next handheld and console share a library so this will also help with releasing games in a timely manner.

Yes, these are things (except the second paragraph) that I have taken into account and you may notice that all of your expected development times result in game releases in late 2016 or early 2017. So a launch before holidays 2016 isn't feasible.

As for the second paragraph, while I do think that quite a few games will indeed be available in more or less the same form on home console and handheld, I doubt that the entire first party lineup will be identical. Think of it in the Wii and DS manner where different control inputs made it impossible for some games to appear on both, even if both systems had been equally powerful.

Well im guessing it will release holiday 2016 so that works out perfectly with the game releases I mentioned.

Ok but look at 3DS & Wii U, very similar input methods (New 3DS actually makes them the exact same). 4 face buttons, 2 analogs, 4 shoulder buttons, dual screen approach, touch screen, gyroscopic motion controls, start, select, home. Basically the only difference is one is HD and the other is 3D. Even the big hitters are becoming more similar, 3D Land/3D World, NSMB2/NSMBU, MK7/MK8, DKC:R/DKC:TF, OoT3D/WWHD. Wii U is basically a console to play bigger, better sequels of 3DS games but the hardware/software is about 50% more expensive (3DS XL-$199.99, software $39.99, Wii U-$299.99, software $59.99) and 3DS has a vastly larger library.

With PS/XB/PC having a lock down on the mainstream AAA crowd, the casual crowd finding a new home on iOS/Android, and Nintendo spreading themselves thin by having to support two distinct pieces of hardware simultaneously, fans of Nintendo franchises are likely to pick the much cheaper option with much better support. Having Nintendo release devices that can share a library helps Nintendo give more sufficient software support along with saving time/money on R&D.

Many of Nintendo's games on Wii U are under performing simply because the install base is not there to support them. Mario Kart 8/3D World for example would likely have sold 2-3 as much if they had an install the size of 3DS to sell to.



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