Ps4 will have a massive drop next month, due to extremely massive September sales.
I see sub 300k numbers.

Q3 ps4 is below Q3 ps2
November and December will be telling

true.  I'm not gonna rule out the possibility as I certainly think PS4 will reach low prices fairly quickly especially compared to last gen but it would have to steal almost the entire 360 userbase plus some Wii owners.  I think it may do that but I also think it depends on a number of things such as when PS5 releases and how inexpensive it is an if it's backwards compatible both of which could cut into the PS4's legs.

It means at least that PS4 deserved to outsell PS2 first year, it's the same thing, slow start but with more games and brightest future

i think peopel forget that at the time the PS3 released was released in 2006, six years after the PS2 launched, the PS2 had just crossed 100M console sold. It took another 6 years for it to reach its 155M sold mark.

After one year the PS4 could very well have sold around 17M consoles. And this is going to be one of its two lowest selling years (first year and last year) in its active generation. But even if we use 17M per year as a baseline it puts the PS4 at 104M sold in 6 years. Real question is how much legs will the "last gen" PS4 have when the PS5 is out and about. Would it have reached $150? Personally I think by the end of this gen the PS4 could even be $99. 

Having said that, I don't thik the PS4 will beat the PS2. It won't have those kinda legs. Things are different now and poeple are generally more informed. And i doubt the PS5 will cost $600.

Didn't wii do like 20m in it's first year? And that was with stock problems all year.

It'll destroy the competition no doubt like PS2 but outsell it? lolno

One thing to keep in mind relative to popularity of one console compared to another from 13 years ago is there are about 10-15% more people now than there were when the PS2 released.

Regardless, the #'s definitely look good so far, but I doubt it will maintain a lead for the remainder of its life.

I say no, it will close but achieving or even surpraising is difficult, the reasons are:

1.Sony at that time is still king on electronic industry, they still have the unlimited fund on marketing and advertising
2.Japan is still relevant on consoles number
3.DVD (casual ) help so much with sales,(early sales)
4.Dreamcast is failed in their second year thus help the games exclusivity and sales for people who want to buy a console.
5.Xbox coming late and Game cube is not a big threat to PS2
6.Overall, console gaming is on their prime time of success.

I only spent like 30 seconds on this chart, its not meant to show month to month, just trends.

About 16.5 million first year and 24.3-24.5 million second year, followed by 15% down yoy already in the third and never rising again.

I'm happy too that the PS4 is having high numbers, but I don't believe that it'll reach PS2 lifetime sales. Generations have gotten shorter since the 6th, and for this console to reach 150m it needs something that adds longevity.so it gets sold to everyone. And yes, casuals might have a bit of an influence on how many are sold.