sigh you need to learn some statistics. The difference IS SIGNIFICANT, The variance fluxuates but currently averages well below 3% just as for china it current averages above 8%. If china experiences a further significant slowdown then the US will suffer also, as the GFC taught us the worlds major economies impact each other significantly. The scenario that sees the US surge ahead while China slows significantly just isn't realistic. basically for 2033 to be the year requires worst case for China and best case for the US.

Not really, since this isn't about understanding statistics when averages are going to constantly be changing.  USA averages at roughly 2% with the GDP because USA is relatively stable.  However, China isn't nearly as stable, and applying straight up statistics to it is just faulty logic when trying to analyze economics for the future of something on this scale.  

If China experiences a significant slowdown, it does NOT have to mean the US will suffer proportionally.  The US is not nearly as reliant on China as you are taught to believe.  While the world economies are heavily tied to each other, it doesn't necessitate that the suffering of a rising power will be a huge detriment to an already great power.  This isn't the only thing, but just because China doesn't rise up to astonishing levels doesn't mean that the USA will suddenly drop from 2% to 0 or even decrease in its annual GDP.  China's role for the USA wont just disappear if China's economy stops growing as fast.  Not only that, but while an average changing a single percentage can be seen as a big deal, it happens quite a lot ESPECIALLY for rising powers.  Just look at the other powers that had rapidly growing economies similar to China in the past.  Their rates dropped dramatically (over 5% YoY) and stabilized at much lower percentages.  No one can actually say for sure what's going to happen, but it would be foolish to assume China can keep up what it's doing indefinitely.  At least if it doesn't change dramatically.

2033 doesn't have to mean the "worst case" for China and "best case" for USA.  All it really requires is a less than ideal situation for China alone.  The likelihood of China not living up to expectations is higher than you think.  There are plenty of obstacles, and whether or not China will be able to overcome the hurdle is something yet to be seen.  Also, you criticize my points without actually providing any real arguments except saying I'm wrong and making arguments with yourself as your own authority.  I at least provided you numbers to show you that things aren't as clear cut (you analyze yourself, you can see China's GDP in 2009-2011 being over 9%, and in 2012 drops to 7.7%).  

Also, the site I linked you, you can check yourself with countries like Japan (going to the corresponding year for its growth), India, Russia, Brazil, and several other countries and see how their GDP's looked promising, but dropped off a lot all of a sudden.  Even if it doesn't happen for China, it doesn't require the exact same thing to stall them several years off course.

edit: Let me also point out that I never was arguing for a specific year.  I was simply pointing out your misleading statements regarding the situation.  You make it seem like I don't really know what I'm talking about when, in reality, you're oversimplifying the data present.

perhaps some basic maths could help you understand the numbers better. I am not oversimplifying the data, you are ignoring the facts and instead choosing to insert your own numbers for the future that doesn't fit with present information. I will agree no one can say for sure what will happen, but to extropolate that out to it is likely that China will sink and US will rise is just as foolish if not more so.

At a stable 2% average the US GDP will be just over 24 trillion in 2033

At a stable 3% average the US GDP will be just over 29 trillion in 2033

At 6% china will be at 28.7 trillion

At 7% china will be at 34.25 trillion

That insignificant 1% for the US alone would bring the time forward to around 2028 and that is assuming that China immediately declines down to the 6% average range. The likelihood of China being ahead is pretty good by 2025, and all but a done deal by 2030 at this point in time, you can't accurately predict the future that far ahead but there needs to be some massive economic shifts for the current trends to prevent this. The US WILL be affected by a china crash, maybe not as much as countries like Australia, but it will be felt and in a large way.

You're awfully condescending for someone who didn't fully read what I said.  I didn't even insist on the specific year of "2033" to begin with, I already said.  I also already said that the guy you were responding to, I did not think he was accurately projecting what the actual numbers are.  You're responding to me like as if I was continuing off of his argument.  My response to you was simply that you were misleading by saying that his numbers were way off.

Not only this, but you're still keeping China pretty high, given China is already at 7.7%.  Given the political climate surrounding China, there's a chance it could drop off more than that.  The relative decline of China does not have to mean that the US will suffer greatly for it.  China is a major trading partner for the US, and China's economy crashing would have repercussions for the US for sure.  However, it doesn't require China's economy to "crash" for the estimates you give to be off, and the US's economy will not decline proportionally to China's.  What exactly would happen is unknown, but you're overestimating China's influence on the US, or you're overestimating the likelihood China will sustain its growth rate.  

Like I've been trying to assert this entire time, I'm not saying what will happen one way or another.  I'm just saying this issue has a LOT of factors involved, and you're oversimplifying it.  You're trying to look at it from a statistics point of view, and even then the data doesn't fully support you.  Also, the "massive economic shifts" could already have a place in China if you've been paying attention to the whole reason China's GDP has been so high.

Though, my honest feelings are that even if China's GDP surpasses the United States, that means a lot less than what people think.  It wont mean China is "more powerful" than the US.  And I personally think it's not that likely that China's economy will keep up unless they solve the issues looming their country right now, since they can easily fester into something that can quickly crash their economy.  I know China's aware of it (with their investment in infrastructure in Africa), but there's a lot of other things involved here.  The International System is not nearly as predictable as you would imagine.  By that same token, China could resurge its economy and surpass the US GDP even faster than some estimates say, but I don't see the basis for making that claim.  Looking at the evidence we have, it's more likely China would either at most, stay at a relatively same level or decline.  I wont make any claims to a certain year like you or Atma, but you need to look at this subject more objectively and with more perspective, and be less condescending about the topic when no one really knows how this will turn out (people thought the same stuff about Japan in the 80's).

perhaps we should just agree to disagree. I was not implying you believed the 2033 number, but your assertion that a mere 1% was insignificant rather than massive was blatantly incorrect comment. I also personally don't believe the US can climb out of its hole in the short term, they have politically isolated themselves from countries like Russia and China which will be a dead weight on the economy. China has a very large investment base outside of the borders, this is what tends to hurt other countries significantly in a decline, e.g. one of the huge chinese based investments is in US realestate. Personally I see China declining gradually but not fast enough to prevent it flying past the US GDP.

Federal deficit going down is all nice and adorable, even though in case of the US it's like saying "I'm successfully shifted from heroin to methadone", but national debt not even main contributor to said pyramid. Problem remains and it outclasses Chinese housing bubble (not that US economy doesn't have it's fair share of similar-sized bubbles like shale gas for example).

I'm not saying 1% GDP is insignificant, but that 1% doesn't constitute "major" in the relative sense that is used in.  1% can make a big difference, but at the same time 1% isn't going to make or break anything.

As for the politics, it's always convoluted.  What happens isn't always going to make sense at the time it happens (or before).

Technically this happened years ago as China most likely has much less debt than America. US debt is $16 trillion! And apparently 97% of all money in the world is debt which is something waiting to go wrong.

Also what difference does it make that China is wealthier? Outside the eastern seaboard, China is the same poor old China it always been

Bow down to our chinese overlords.