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nanarchy on 10 October 2014
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MDMAlliance said:
nanarchy said:
MDMAlliance said:

While I do agree that his numbers are not an accurate representation of the GDP growth of each respective country, your statement that US growth is "well below" 3% is misleading.  US GPD growth is at approximately 2%.  Also, China's GDP growth rate isn't all that much higher than 6% as well, it having dropped since 2010 from around 10% to a little under 8% 

Country namehttp://data.worldbank.org/profiles/datafinder/themes/wbbase/images/sprite.png) 0px -620px;" class="active" href="http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?order=wbapi_data_value_2009+wbapi_data_value+wbapi_data_value-first&sort=asc">2009http://data.worldbank.org/profiles/datafinder/themes/wbbase/images/sprite.png) 0px -620px;" class="active" href="http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?order=wbapi_data_value_2010+wbapi_data_value&sort=asc">2010http://data.worldbank.org/profiles/datafinder/themes/wbbase/images/sprite.png) 0px -620px;" class="active" href="http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?order=wbapi_data_value_2011+wbapi_data_value&sort=asc">2011http://data.worldbank.org/profiles/datafinder/themes/wbbase/images/sprite.png) 0px -620px;" class="active" href="http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?order=wbapi_data_value_2012+wbapi_data_value&sort=asc">2012http://data.worldbank.org/profiles/datafinder/themes/wbbase/images/sprite.png) 0px -620px;" class="active" href="http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?order=wbapi_data_value_2013+wbapi_data_value+wbapi_data_value-last&sort=asc">2013
China 9.2 10.4 9.3 7.7 7.7  
United States -2.8 2.5 1.8 2.8 1.9  

 

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG

I'm sure you can see that China already is showing signs of not being able to sustain its current level of growth.

2% vs 3% is a massive difference as is 7.7 vs 6%. these are not small differences. The US needs a 50% increase in growth rate to reach 3% China needs a >20% drop to reach 6%. given the compounding effects the actual requirements for his estimate to come true require china to drop well below 6% and the US to climb well above 3%. 2033 would require an amazing economic turnaround from the US and massive slowdown from China.


I don't think you understand this very well if you think that it's "massive" of a difference.  You do realize that the variance in the annual GDP growth rate is common to be around 1%, which is the amount you're calling "massive."  Are you saying that all economies fluctuate greatly all the time?  Since it's relative, and most countries actually fluctuate MORE than just 1% year on year, it's not all that massive at all.  

edit: Also, it's not all that unbelievable to think that China would experience a significant slowdown (moreso than US "amazing turnaround" given that the US GDP growth rate would take a lot to move up or down that much meaning it would likely remain at 2% with occasional fluctuations in either direction).

sigh you need to learn some statistics. The difference IS SIGNIFICANT, The variance fluxuates but currently averages well below 3% just as for china it current averages above 8%. If china experiences a further significant slowdown then the US will suffer also, as the GFC taught us the worlds major economies impact each other significantly. The scenario that sees the US surge ahead while China slows significantly just isn't realistic. basically for 2033 to be the year requires worst case for China and best case for the US.