nanarchy said:
perhaps some basic maths could help you understand the numbers better. I am not oversimplifying the data, you are ignoring the facts and instead choosing to insert your own numbers for the future that doesn't fit with present information. I will agree no one can say for sure what will happen, but to extropolate that out to it is likely that China will sink and US will rise is just as foolish if not more so.
At a stable 2% average the US GDP will be just over 24 trillion in 2033 At a stable 3% average the US GDP will be just over 29 trillion in 2033 At 6% china will be at 28.7 trillion At 7% china will be at 34.25 trillion That insignificant 1% for the US alone would bring the time forward to around 2028 and that is assuming that China immediately declines down to the 6% average range. The likelihood of China being ahead is pretty good by 2025, and all but a done deal by 2030 at this point in time, you can't accurately predict the future that far ahead but there needs to be some massive economic shifts for the current trends to prevent this. The US WILL be affected by a china crash, maybe not as much as countries like Australia, but it will be felt and in a large way. |
You're awfully condescending for someone who didn't fully read what I said. I didn't even insist on the specific year of "2033" to begin with, I already said. I also already said that the guy you were responding to, I did not think he was accurately projecting what the actual numbers are. You're responding to me like as if I was continuing off of his argument. My response to you was simply that you were misleading by saying that his numbers were way off.
Not only this, but you're still keeping China pretty high, given China is already at 7.7%. Given the political climate surrounding China, there's a chance it could drop off more than that. The relative decline of China does not have to mean that the US will suffer greatly for it. China is a major trading partner for the US, and China's economy crashing would have repercussions for the US for sure. However, it doesn't require China's economy to "crash" for the estimates you give to be off, and the US's economy will not decline proportionally to China's. What exactly would happen is unknown, but you're overestimating China's influence on the US, or you're overestimating the likelihood China will sustain its growth rate.
Like I've been trying to assert this entire time, I'm not saying what will happen one way or another. I'm just saying this issue has a LOT of factors involved, and you're oversimplifying it. You're trying to look at it from a statistics point of view, and even then the data doesn't fully support you. Also, the "massive economic shifts" could already have a place in China if you've been paying attention to the whole reason China's GDP has been so high.
Though, my honest feelings are that even if China's GDP surpasses the United States, that means a lot less than what people think. It wont mean China is "more powerful" than the US. And I personally think it's not that likely that China's economy will keep up unless they solve the issues looming their country right now, since they can easily fester into something that can quickly crash their economy. I know China's aware of it (with their investment in infrastructure in Africa), but there's a lot of other things involved here. The International System is not nearly as predictable as you would imagine. By that same token, China could resurge its economy and surpass the US GDP even faster than some estimates say, but I don't see the basis for making that claim. Looking at the evidence we have, it's more likely China would either at most, stay at a relatively same level or decline. I wont make any claims to a certain year like you or Atma, but you need to look at this subject more objectively and with more perspective, and be less condescending about the topic when no one really knows how this will turn out (people thought the same stuff about Japan in the 80's).
