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nanarchy on 10 October 2014
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MDMAlliance said:
nanarchy said:


Not really, since this isn't about understanding statistics when averages are going to constantly be changing.  USA averages at roughly 2% with the GDP because USA is relatively stable.  However, China isn't nearly as stable, and applying straight up statistics to it is just faulty logic when trying to analyze economics for the future of something on this scale.  

If China experiences a significant slowdown, it does NOT have to mean the US will suffer proportionally.  The US is not nearly as reliant on China as you are taught to believe.  While the world economies are heavily tied to each other, it doesn't necessitate that the suffering of a rising power will be a huge detriment to an already great power.  This isn't the only thing, but just because China doesn't rise up to astonishing levels doesn't mean that the USA will suddenly drop from 2% to 0 or even decrease in its annual GDP.  China's role for the USA wont just disappear if China's economy stops growing as fast.  Not only that, but while an average changing a single percentage can be seen as a big deal, it happens quite a lot ESPECIALLY for rising powers.  Just look at the other powers that had rapidly growing economies similar to China in the past.  Their rates dropped dramatically (over 5% YoY) and stabilized at much lower percentages.  No one can actually say for sure what's going to happen, but it would be foolish to assume China can keep up what it's doing indefinitely.  At least if it doesn't change dramatically.

2033 doesn't have to mean the "worst case" for China and "best case" for USA.  All it really requires is a less than ideal situation for China alone.  The likelihood of China not living up to expectations is higher than you think.  There are plenty of obstacles, and whether or not China will be able to overcome the hurdle is something yet to be seen.  Also, you criticize my points without actually providing any real arguments except saying I'm wrong and making arguments with yourself as your own authority.  I at least provided you numbers to show you that things aren't as clear cut (you analyze yourself, you can see China's GDP in 2009-2011 being over 9%, and in 2012 drops to 7.7%).  

Also, the site I linked you, you can check yourself with countries like Japan (going to the corresponding year for its growth), India, Russia, Brazil, and several other countries and see how their GDP's looked promising, but dropped off a lot all of a sudden.  Even if it doesn't happen for China, it doesn't require the exact same thing to stall them several years off course.

edit: Let me also point out that I never was arguing for a specific year.  I was simply pointing out your misleading statements regarding the situation.  You make it seem like I don't really know what I'm talking about when, in reality, you're oversimplifying the data present.

perhaps some basic maths could help you understand the numbers better. I am not oversimplifying the data, you are ignoring the facts and instead choosing to insert your own numbers for the future that doesn't fit with present information. I will agree no one can say for sure what will happen, but to extropolate that out to it is likely that China will sink and US will rise is just as foolish if not more so.

 

At a stable 2% average the US GDP will be just over 24 trillion in 2033

At a stable 3% average the US GDP will be just over 29 trillion in 2033

At 6% china will be at 28.7 trillion

At 7% china will be at 34.25 trillion

That insignificant 1% for the US alone would bring the time forward to around 2028 and that is assuming that China immediately declines down to the 6% average range. The likelihood of China being ahead is pretty good by 2025, and all but a done deal by 2030 at this point in time, you can't accurately predict the future that far ahead but there needs to be some massive economic shifts for the current trends to prevent this. The US WILL be affected by a china crash, maybe not as much as countries like Australia, but it will be felt and in a large way.