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Forums - Sales Discussion - November Update!!!! Under 3m - Predict: Xbox One will sell more in the US than WiiU will Worldwide

PwerlvlAmy said:
Funny how its always Wii U over tracked but everything else is cool and correct. Nintendo can never win xD

Ninty is always d0m3d, it's The Golden Law of Ninty D0m3, already present in the Code of Hammurabi in XVIII Century B.C.



Stwike him, Centuwion. Stwike him vewy wuffly! (Pontius Pilate, "Life of Brian")
A fart without stink is like a sky without stars.
TGS, Third Grade Shooter: brand new genre invented by Kevin Butler exclusively for Natal WiiToo Kinect. PEW! PEW-PEW-PEW! 
 


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Alby_da_Wolf said:
Seece said:
Alby_da_Wolf said:
Seece said:

Which means even more overtracked, you're agreeing with me.

The latest confirmed data I could find are these: http://www.neowin.net/news/nintendos-wii-u-falls-short-of-already-reduced-shipment-predictions
If it's currently overtracked on VGC, it won't be by a horribly huge amount, maybe a 100k adjustment would be a little squeezed, but even just a 200k one would fit quite comfortably.

Look at the above 10~ posts. Unless you think Nintendo are shipping 1m this Q (up 100% QoQ) then yes, it's overtracked a lot.

If we start from those early May numbers, we have almost 5 full months until the end of September, 21 weeks plus three days, to reach 7.4M Wii U would need to sell a total of 1.23M in these around 21 weeks and a half, a little more than 57k/week average, if we imagine it's overtracked by 200k, it becomes 1.03M in that period, that is around 48k/week average, still a big QoQ growth, but when numbers are very low it's easier to have larger relative variations. Anyway, it's also possible  that besides a cumulative adjustment, the numbers require finer, monthly and weekly, adjustments too. Keep also in mind that having the numbers still unadjusted when a few weeks are left gives a worse impression, because at a first glance you'll unconsciously spread all the needed adjustment just on those weeks left instead of on the whole period.

Why are you using early may numbers? We have shipments by end of June to compare with our numbers. And they show WiU is overtracked. You're way overthinking it.



 

Seece said:

Why are you using early may numbers? We have shipments by end of June to compare with our numbers. And they show WiU is overtracked. You're way overthinking it.


You should learn to read numbers, end of june nintendo official numbers are by 140k higher than end of june VGC numbers, so that really ain't no point to prove overtracking. 

The overshipping of hardware compared to actual sales is for most hardware manufacturers between 5 and 10% of units per quarter. With ~700k WiiUs sold last quarter we have a 20% amount here if we assume the WiiU is not UNDERtracked at that point. 

Edit: I'm not saying WiiU is undertracked, i'm just saying the numbers do not show an obvious overtracking, which you are claiming.



Cyrus said:
Seece said:

Why are you using early may numbers? We have shipments by end of June to compare with our numbers. And they show WiU is overtracked. You're way overthinking it.


You should learn to read numbers, end of june nintendo official numbers are by 140k higher than end of june VGC numbers, so that really ain't no point to prove overtracking. 

The overshipping of hardware compared to actual sales is for most hardware manufacturers between 5 and 10% of units per quarter. With ~700k WiiUs sold last quarter we have a 20% amount here if we assume the WiiU is not UNDERtracked at that point. 

Edit: I'm not saying WiiU is undertracked, i'm just saying the numbers do not show an obvious overtracking, which you are claiming.

Yes they do. WiiU is suppsudly selling at the rate of 50 - 60k a week. They did not have a mere 3 weeks supply in the channel. And to anyone saying they underestimated demand ect, they had been shipping these MK consoles since early march and had a full 5 weeks of the console on sale.





 

Seece said:
Alby_da_Wolf said:

[...]

If we start from those early May numbers, we have almost 5 full months until the end of September, 21 weeks plus three days, to reach 7.4M Wii U would need to sell a total of 1.23M in these around 21 weeks and a half, a little more than 57k/week average, if we imagine it's overtracked by 200k, it becomes 1.03M in that period, that is around 48k/week average, still a big QoQ growth, but when numbers are very low it's easier to have larger relative variations. Anyway, it's also possible  that besides a cumulative adjustment, the numbers require finer, monthly and weekly, adjustments too. Keep also in mind that having the numbers still unadjusted when a few weeks are left gives a worse impression, because at a first glance you'll unconsciously spread all the needed adjustment just on those weeks left instead of on the whole period.

Why are you using early may numbers? We have shipments by end of June to compare with our numbers. And they show WiU is overtracked. You're way overthinking it.


Ooops! Because I looked myself for those numbers, and the most recent I found were those early May ones.   
Anyway, if we suppose that Ninty keeps roughly the same amount in the channel, end-of-June 6.68M - early May 6.17M shipped means roughly 510k sold in two months, if sales remain roughly constant, it would be around 765k in a quarter, that would take Wii U to more than 7.4M shipped by the end of September. This if sales don't grow,and in this case by the end of September VGC would put Wii U at roughly 7.4M, almost equal to shipped numbers, this would mean overtracking it roughly by the amount that's still in the channel. But this if you assume it won't sell and ship more in September. I don't know, it's surely overtracked, but we need this quarter shipment numbers to be sure about how much, "eccessive" QoQ growth isn't conclusive enough when the starting numbers are so low.



Stwike him, Centuwion. Stwike him vewy wuffly! (Pontius Pilate, "Life of Brian")
A fart without stink is like a sky without stars.
TGS, Third Grade Shooter: brand new genre invented by Kevin Butler exclusively for Natal WiiToo Kinect. PEW! PEW-PEW-PEW! 
 


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Seece said:
Alby_da_Wolf said:

If we start from those early May numbers, we have almost 5 full months until the end of September, 21 weeks plus three days, to reach 7.4M Wii U would need to sell a total of 1.23M in these around 21 weeks and a half, a little more than 57k/week average, if we imagine it's overtracked by 200k, it becomes 1.03M in that period, that is around 48k/week average, still a big QoQ growth, but when numbers are very low it's easier to have larger relative variations. Anyway, it's also possible  that besides a cumulative adjustment, the numbers require finer, monthly and weekly, adjustments too. Keep also in mind that having the numbers still unadjusted when a few weeks are left gives a worse impression, because at a first glance you'll unconsciously spread all the needed adjustment just on those weeks left instead of on the whole period.

Why are you using early may numbers? We have shipments by end of June to compare with our numbers. And they show WiU is overtracked. You're way overthinking it.

No, they don't. Get over it.



summon said:
Seece said:
Alby_da_Wolf said:

If we start from those early May numbers, we have almost 5 full months until the end of September, 21 weeks plus three days, to reach 7.4M Wii U would need to sell a total of 1.23M in these around 21 weeks and a half, a little more than 57k/week average, if we imagine it's overtracked by 200k, it becomes 1.03M in that period, that is around 48k/week average, still a big QoQ growth, but when numbers are very low it's easier to have larger relative variations. Anyway, it's also possible  that besides a cumulative adjustment, the numbers require finer, monthly and weekly, adjustments too. Keep also in mind that having the numbers still unadjusted when a few weeks are left gives a worse impression, because at a first glance you'll unconsciously spread all the needed adjustment just on those weeks left instead of on the whole period.

Why are you using early may numbers? We have shipments by end of June to compare with our numbers. And they show WiU is overtracked. You're way overthinking it.

No, they don't. Get over it.

Nothing to get over, there isn't 2/3 weeks of supply in the channel. I think we might hve a sold > shipped scenario on our hands come Septmeber, like we have in the past with Nintendo hardware.



 

PwerlvlAmy said:
Funny how its always Wii U over tracked but everything else is cool and correct. Nintendo can never win xD

Win what? 



Sigs are dumb. And so are you!

Xbox One will sell 30 million in the US at worst. WiiU will be lucky to hit 20 million lifetime worldwide.



tuscaniman99 said:
Xbox One will sell 30 million in the US at worst. WiiU will be lucky to hit 20 million lifetime worldwide.


It will be around 11-14 million total for XBone based on total console market decline and XB market share lost to PS4, which is right now around 31% of exclusive to XB360 gamers alone have bought a PS4 instead of XBone. This could drop significantly if Microsoft shareholders decide pull the plug on the brand at some point in the near future.



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.