November Update!!!! Under 3m - Predict: Xbox One will sell more in the US than WiiU will Worldwide

[Alby_da_Wolf]

Seece said:

Alby_da_Wolf said:

[...]

If we start from those early May numbers, we have almost 5 full months until the end of September, 21 weeks plus three days, to reach 7.4M Wii U would need to sell a total of 1.23M in these around 21 weeks and a half, a little more than 57k/week average, if we imagine it's overtracked by 200k, it becomes 1.03M in that period, that is around 48k/week average, still a big QoQ growth, but when numbers are very low it's easier to have larger relative variations. Anyway, it's also possible  that besides a cumulative adjustment, the numbers require finer, monthly and weekly, adjustments too. Keep also in mind that having the numbers still unadjusted when a few weeks are left gives a worse impression, because at a first glance you'll unconsciously spread all the needed adjustment just on those weeks left instead of on the whole period.

Why are you using early may numbers? We have shipments by end of June to compare with our numbers. And they show WiU is overtracked. You're way overthinking it.

Ooops! Because I looked myself for those numbers, and the most recent I found were those early May ones.   
Anyway, if we suppose that Ninty keeps roughly the same amount in the channel, end-of-June 6.68M - early May 6.17M shipped means roughly 510k sold in two months, if sales remain roughly constant, it would be around 765k in a quarter, that would take Wii U to more than 7.4M shipped by the end of September. This if sales don't grow,and in this case by the end of September VGC would put Wii U at roughly 7.4M, almost equal to shipped numbers, this would mean overtracking it roughly by the amount that's still in the channel. But this if you assume it won't sell and ship more in September. I don't know, it's surely overtracked, but we need this quarter shipment numbers to be sure about how much, "eccessive" QoQ growth isn't conclusive enough when the starting numbers are so low.