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Seece on 23 August 2014
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Alby_da_Wolf said:
Seece said:
Alby_da_Wolf said:
Seece said:

Which means even more overtracked, you're agreeing with me.

The latest confirmed data I could find are these: http://www.neowin.net/news/nintendos-wii-u-falls-short-of-already-reduced-shipment-predictions
If it's currently overtracked on VGC, it won't be by a horribly huge amount, maybe a 100k adjustment would be a little squeezed, but even just a 200k one would fit quite comfortably.

Look at the above 10~ posts. Unless you think Nintendo are shipping 1m this Q (up 100% QoQ) then yes, it's overtracked a lot.

If we start from those early May numbers, we have almost 5 full months until the end of September, 21 weeks plus three days, to reach 7.4M Wii U would need to sell a total of 1.23M in these around 21 weeks and a half, a little more than 57k/week average, if we imagine it's overtracked by 200k, it becomes 1.03M in that period, that is around 48k/week average, still a big QoQ growth, but when numbers are very low it's easier to have larger relative variations. Anyway, it's also possible  that besides a cumulative adjustment, the numbers require finer, monthly and weekly, adjustments too. Keep also in mind that having the numbers still unadjusted when a few weeks are left gives a worse impression, because at a first glance you'll unconsciously spread all the needed adjustment just on those weeks left instead of on the whole period.

Why are you using early may numbers? We have shipments by end of June to compare with our numbers. And they show WiU is overtracked. You're way overthinking it.