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Forums - Sales Discussion - PREDICTION: PS4 will outsell XBOX ONE+Wii U by end of year!

Intrinsic said:
Aielyn said:
Intrinsic said:
The numbers were irrelevant... the POINT was that a large boost of shit sales can still be shit when compared to a smaller boost of good sales. Everything you are saying outside that is just semantics and could generally go both ways.

And with that, I'm not wasting another word of argument with you.

You're not interested in arguing facts, you're only interested in trying to cast anybody who would be optimistic about Wii U in a negative light, and the system itself negatively at the same time. Wii U sales in the last two months have quite closely mirrored Xbox 360 sales in the equivalent months of 2007. Nobody then described Xbox 360 sales as "shit". You have completely ignored the context of the discussion, in order to justify attacking the Wii U, and me, for something that wasn't actually said.

Good day to you.


Lol.... ok, anything you say. I am/have attacked the wiiU and you and I am trying to paint the WiiU and somehow alll its fans, in bad light.

Pls, not wasting another word on me is something I would consider as you doing me a favor. Arguing facts? How is it possible that someone can ignore what was actually being said 3 times over now and take all this off to this strange offbase personal tangent. If you actually read what I was saying and not play this victim role you would actually see that contrary to what you may think, I actually was not and never was attacking 'you" or the WiiU.

But yh.............

Topic of thread: PS4 vs XBO+WiiU by end of year.

Discussion I was having: PS4 vs XBO+WiiU by end of year.

Your post in response: Wii U boost is nonsense, as although I agree that it'll get the biggest boost, it's not really because absolute numbers.

My response to that: Um, you might want to look at the context of the discussion.

Your response to that: I brought up Wii U, so it's a valid discussion. And the boost can't possibly mean what you say (even though you never claimed what I say you claimed).

My response: Nobody claimed that, and in the context of the discussion, the boost as described would very much have the effect I actually claimed.

Your response: Wii U sales are "shit"! And you're just arguing semantics*.

Your posts haven't been on-topic, they've been specifically targetted at Wii U, and they've ignored the context of everything I've said. And you've used numbers picked out of the air to justify a claim when the entire thread is about discussion of actual numbers... and when I pointed out what the real numbers (VGChartz numbers, that is) say, you then tried to attack me for somehow misrepresenting the numbers... and in the meantime, invoked average sales since January when everybody had been discussing sales in the last few months.

So you can talk big about having said something three times over and me ignoring them, but the fact of the matter is, you've ignored the context of the thread, and the content of the thread, and attacked me for daring to suggest a Wii U boost even though you can't assert that it's not going to happen, with no basis within my comments. You could have constructed a reasonable argument for why you think the boost won't be enough... but instead, you chose to attack me illegitimately via the concept of the boost.

Of course, your most recent attack on me was posted as a reply to somebody else. You could have simply explained your argument against mine, but you instead attacked me in your response to that person. At least when I make an assertion about a user, I do it to their face.

 

*(which I interpret as an attack on me, by the way - when you assert that I'm using underhanded methods of debating, rather than addressing the actual point, that's an attack)

 

 

EDIT: To see what a reasonable discussion looks like, have a look at the discussion between me and DerNebel. We debate the topic, we challenge each others' assertions, but it's civil and on-topic, it's an exchange of arguments rather than an attempt to discredit each other or in any way attack any of the systems.



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Aielyn said:
.........

Please, give it a rest. saying all this stuff and putting words in my mouth or twisting what i was saying doesn't make anything you are saying true.

again, I saw a post talking about wiiU higher boosts being the reason as to why poster thought the matter this thread was discussing couldn't happen. I challenged that logic and simply ask for a comaprison of the known average monthly sales of the wiiU (that the higher boost applied to) to the PS4 averages and how even if such a boost were true it wouldn't make a difference. THIS POINT IS IN LINE WITH THE DISCUSSION AT HAND.

However, you took this to be a personal attack on you and have carried to to God knows where.  You can keep disputing this all you want, but in every single post I made replying you I have explained this very thing. This should be making the 4th or 5th time I have explained it. The only person that has tried to discredit anyones points here is you.. you have gone as disputing avergaes as a reasonable and logical standard for measuring data over a set period of time to even suggesting that sony flat out came on stage and lied. You have also tried to make it look like i am attacking you.... so please, lets just stop. Its enough.

And if what you want is a proper response to this thread, I made a post that is just above yours talking about just that. 



Intrinsic said:
I honestly don't know what his problem is... he is selectively looking at the "facts" he wants to see and even worse in a way that would suit his stance.

In 2014.

 

  • PS4: 5.5M sold (adjusted using sony's annouced 10M consoles sold, VGC has it at 4.8+M)
  • WiiU: 1.5M sold (but hell, lets adjust it up to 2M to make people like him happy, added an imaginary 500k)
  • XB1: 1.9M sold (again, lets adjust this up to 2.4M, also adding an imaginary 500k)

So WiiU + XB1 real(and adjusted totals) = 3.4M (4.4M adjusted)

So

 

  • PS4 is 5.5M adjusted with sony announcement compared to 4.4M for the wiiU+XB1 after adding an imaginary 1M worth of sales to them. 
  • PS4 is 5.5M to the WiiU+XB1 3.4M is using VGCs current numbers for them. (61% of total PS4 sales)
  • PS4 is 4.8M (using pre adjusted VGC current numbers) to 3.4M for wiiU+XB1

I cannot think of how anyone will look at these numbers and say/suggest that the PS4 is not selling at an overall faster rate... unless

  1. The person disputes sony's announcement and suggests its a convenient lie cause they didn't make a press release announcing that milestone instead of choosing to wait a week or so (which they did) to announce at at a global media briefing.

  2. The person has no concept of averages and how if sampling any time period of data it is always best to use an average as a baseline rather than focus on whatever natural factors (eg new game being released, price drop..etc) skew numbers in either direction.

  3. The person is delusional (used literally and not as an insult so pls to whom it may concern look up the literal definition to see how it applies to this) and his/her inclinations/preferences has completely clouded his/her  ability to reason and/or process statistical evidence and thus makes the exception the rule or simply sensationalizes everything and contorts the facts. 

  4. The person bases his/her reasoning on generally shared constants across a sample base (eg. new wanted/popular game or price drop that will boost sales of which ever benefiting platform they happen for) and somehow manages to forget that what he/she is saying can and will also apply to the other platforms eg. WiiU had MK8 and PS4 will have Destiny (or insert any other system supposed system seller there).
So yeah, but my being in this thread wasn't even about this cause I felt all this was obvious. If the PS4s YTD means that its outsold both WiiU+XB1, then that also means that its monthly avergaes will show the same thing. Not considering those generaly shared constants I mentioned. So I didn't see the need to have to point this all out to people cause obviously anyone that doesn't see that is already looking at it how they want to look at it. I really just came here to understand this boost people keep talking about in relation to the WiiU.

I'm not going to waste my time with arguments with you, now, but I'm going to point out a few things, here.

1. Calling somebody delusional IS an insult, whether you mean it literally or not. It's asserting that the person has a loose grasp on reality, and the only way for that to not be an insult is if you're a psychiatrist and have extensively studied my psyche and determined me to be suffering from delusions.

2. Taking an average over 7 months is not how one goes about a statistical analysis, when circumstances change during that time. What you have done is equivalent to looking at the first three years of the Wii's life, comparing it with PS3 and 360 values at the same time, and concluding that the Wii would end up, at the end of its life, having 48% of the console market for the generation. Circumstances change.

3. The only person who has been ignoring that things can be applied to other platforms is you. I asserted that the effects of various games in the coming months would affect all of the systems. I pointed out that MK8 affected Wii U, and that the price drop affected the XBO, and noted that all three systems had system-sellers on the way. The fact that my lack of mention of Destiny bothers you says something about you, not me. Destiny is just one of the many games due to release on various systems in the next four months, and need not be specifically discussed. Or were you trying to assert that Destiny would affect PS4 more than all other games would affect any system, and thus somehow deserves special mention?

4. Talking about someone effectively behind their back by posting about them in reply to another user, attacking them, and selectively looking at facts while accusing them of selectively looking at facts is highly questionable behaviour.

By the way, if we're just going to take averages over a relatively arbitrary period of time, let's use a different arbitrary period of time: Even after the PS4 bump to 10 million, total LTD sales of the three platforms works out to 21.9 million, so PS4 is less than half of that number. So the average sales of the three systems since the start of the generation has Wii U + XBO ahead of PS4. That's what happens when you ignore changes in circumstances.



Aielyn said:

Please don't jump into discussions part way through and put forward arguments that are irrelevant to the discussion.

And especially don't do so by using fabricated numbers determined by just scaling the existing numbers - that's not how overtracking and undertracking happens. And I also can't help but notice that you're using Sony's "official" numbers for PS4, but then using VGChartz numbers for Wii U. If you reject VGC numbers as unreliable, then you can't pick and choose which numbers to reject. Wii U could also be severely undertracked, for all you know.

We all know wiiu is not undertracked, im not using vg numbers just pointing out your fallacy  of using clearly wrong numbers for the PS4 to argue agianst it.  Least have the balls by go with legit numebrs not bs that will be adjusted soon enough.  You are like all the peeps crying but but PS4 is under 100k a week yahh sky is falling, and a week or two later its adjusted to 140k lol.   

Your whole argument is based on fake numbers, you are clealry wrong.  Legit numbers prove it, we all know.

Only thing irrelevent is an argument (yours) that uses false fake numbers casue real ones dont suit it. 



lol so now its ok to talk about one console outselling two others?

ot: its not happening. especially given the timeframe you gave. any reasonable person can should be able to see this



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RubberWhistleHistle said:
lol so now its ok to talk about one console outselling two others?

ot: its not happening. especially given the timeframe you gave. any reasonable person can should be able to see this

Selling of year:

PS4: 5,6m

XO: 2m

WiiU: 1,5m

XO+WiiU: 3,5m

...

Yep, don't will happen.



Intrinsic said:
Aielyn said:
.........

Please, give it a rest. saying all this stuff and putting words in my mouth or twisting what i was saying doesn't make anything you are saying true.

again, I saw a post talking about wiiU higher boosts being the reason as to why poster thought the matter this thread was discussing couldn't happen. I challenged that logic and simply ask for a comaprison of the known average monthly sales of the wiiU (that the higher boost applied to) to the PS4 averages and how even if such a boost were true it wouldn't make a difference. THIS POINT IS IN LINE WITH THE DISCUSSION AT HAND.

However, you took this to be a personal attack on you and have carried to to God knows where.  You can keep disputing this all you want, but in every single post I made replying you I have explained this very thing. This should be making the 4th or 5th time I have explained it. The only person that has tried to discredit anyones points here is you.. you have gone as disputing avergaes as a reasonable and logical standard for measuring data over a set period of time to even suggesting that sony flat out came on stage and lied. You have also tried to make it look like i am attacking you.... so please, lets just stop. Its enough.

And if what you want is a proper response to this thread, I made a post that is just above yours talking about just that. 

seriously, i have been watching the back and forth between you two, and he is 100% right that you are missing the context. you are focusing on wii u and harping on it when its about wii u AND xbone. the discussion is, "can the ps4 outsell both combined?" i understand that you are focusing on one aspect, that the holiday boost doesnt mean much if the sales are low, i totally get it, BUT.. this is the point: ps4 has been having trouble outselling both combined in the past three to four weeks (as aielyn already described) so the wii u having a bigger boost than the ps4 is going to make it that much more difficult for sony to have 50%+ marketshare during the holiday. THAT is the point.



drake_tolu said:
RubberWhistleHistle said:
lol so now its ok to talk about one console outselling two others?

ot: its not happening. especially given the timeframe you gave. any reasonable person can should be able to see this

Selling of year:

PS4: 5,6m

XO: 2m

WiiU: 1,5m

XO+WiiU: 3,5m

...

Yep, don't will happen.

as has already been discussed.. and i know you have seen it.. the ps4 was selling a lot better in the first three months than it has been the last three months. and wii u has been selling a lot better in the last three months than it has the first three months. you cant just average the first six months and have that tell you anything about current trends. also, x1 and wii u have a big game for the holiday.. sony doesnt. the biggest thing sony has is the destiny bundle and thats in september. thats going to be the last thing they have that is really going to boost sales whereas ms and nintendo have SSB and MCC coming out during the actual holiday season which will ensure that in november and december, ps4 aint getting 50% of the marketshare.



RubberWhistleHistle said:
drake_tolu said:

Selling of year:

PS4: 5,6m

XO: 2m

WiiU: 1,5m

XO+WiiU: 3,5m

...

Yep, don't will happen.

as has already been discussed.. and i know you have seen it.. the ps4 was selling a lot better in the first three months than it has been the last three months. and wii u has been selling a lot better in the last three months than it has the first three months. you cant just average the first six months and have that tell you anything about current trends. also, x1 and wii u have a big game for the holiday.. sony doesnt. the biggest thing sony has is the destiny bundle and thats in september. thats going to be the last thing they have that is really going to boost sales whereas ms and nintendo have SSB and MCC coming out during the actual holiday season which will ensure that in november and december, ps4 aint getting 50% of the marketshare.

Week before chrismas 2013:

PS4: 751,351

XO: 400,825

WiiU: 348,504

WiiU+XO: 749,329

 

PS4 > XO+WiiU

I concluded.    



drake_tolu said:
RubberWhistleHistle said:
drake_tolu said:

Selling of year:

PS4: 5,6m

XO: 2m

WiiU: 1,5m

XO+WiiU: 3,5m

...

Yep, don't will happen.

as has already been discussed.. and i know you have seen it.. the ps4 was selling a lot better in the first three months than it has been the last three months. and wii u has been selling a lot better in the last three months than it has the first three months. you cant just average the first six months and have that tell you anything about current trends. also, x1 and wii u have a big game for the holiday.. sony doesnt. the biggest thing sony has is the destiny bundle and thats in september. thats going to be the last thing they have that is really going to boost sales whereas ms and nintendo have SSB and MCC coming out during the actual holiday season which will ensure that in november and december, ps4 aint getting 50% of the marketshare.

Week before chrismas 2013:

PS4: 751,351

XO: 400,825

WiiU: 348,504

WiiU+XO: 749,329

 

PS4 > XO+WiiU

I concluded.    

are you trolling or something?