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Forums - Sales Discussion - PREDICTION: PS4 will outsell XBOX ONE+Wii U by end of year!

Intrinsic said:
The numbers were irrelevant... the POINT was that a large boost of shit sales can still be shit when compared to a smaller boost of good sales. Everything you are saying outside that is just semantics and could generally go both ways.

And with that, I'm not wasting another word of argument with you.

You're not interested in arguing facts, you're only interested in trying to cast anybody who would be optimistic about Wii U in a negative light, and the system itself negatively at the same time. Wii U sales in the last two months have quite closely mirrored Xbox 360 sales in the equivalent months of 2007. Nobody then described Xbox 360 sales as "shit". You have completely ignored the context of the discussion, in order to justify attacking the Wii U, and me, for something that wasn't actually said.

Good day to you.



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Aielyn said:
DerNebel said:

You kinda missed that teeny tiny fact that the PS4 is undertracked by around 550-600k here, if we average it out then the PS4 has sold 167k per week between April 6th and August 10th, and has thus outsold both combined almost every week.

OT: Let's say by the end of the fiscal year (March 31st) and we might be getting close.

If PS4 has been undertracked, it's possible that Wii U and/or XBO have also been undertracked. It's funny how people will point to one system being undertracked, but ignore the possibility of others being undertracked.

Also, you're averaging. It's possible it was undertracked on weeks that major releases happened, and not on the other weeks.

Besides which, I wouldn't be the least surprised if Sony was stretching the truth when they said "sold". It seems way too convenient that they were able to announce on the day of their Gamescom press event that they had just broken the 10 million mark - if they'd done it earlier, you can bet they'd have put out a press release immediately, given the milestone nature of 10 million. And since there's no solid, undeniable source for exact worldwide sales numbers, they can get away with such things. This isn't to say that they certainly lied or misled. But they're restricted by the same thing everybody else is - they can only get some of the numbers. They have to estimate, just like NPD, Famitsu, Media-Create, VGChartz, etc. What they do have access to that others don't is shipped numbers.

The thing is you're speculating here, the Wii U and X1 might be mistracked but we don't know. We do in fact know that the PS4 is undertracked, because even if Sonys numbers are internal estimates, they are still way more accurate than Vgchartz numbers and I doubt that they'd lie about something like that on stage.

Also the Wii U has a much higher probability of actually being overtracked, seeing that Vgchartz has the system at over 6.54 million units at the end of June with just 6.67 million units shipped, which puts it at less than 130k units stock or about 2 weeks at the rate vgchartz is saying the Wii U is selling at, don't know about you, but I find that a little unrealistic. X1 might be undertrracked, but we really have nothing to go on here.

And yes I was averaging, I know, but think about it, there were only 2 big games that could really move systems released in that window, Watch Dogs and TLOU:R, how much can we seriously have undertracked those weeks? The baseline of the PS4 has to be considerably higher than what this site is showing at the moment.



Aielyn said:
Intrinsic said:
The numbers were irrelevant... the POINT was that a large boost of shit sales can still be shit when compared to a smaller boost of good sales. Everything you are saying outside that is just semantics and could generally go both ways.

And with that, I'm not wasting another word of argument with you.

You're not interested in arguing facts, you're only interested in trying to cast anybody who would be optimistic about Wii U in a negative light, and the system itself negatively at the same time. Wii U sales in the last two months have quite closely mirrored Xbox 360 sales in the equivalent months of 2007. Nobody then described Xbox 360 sales as "shit". You have completely ignored the context of the discussion, in order to justify attacking the Wii U, and me, for something that wasn't actually said.

Good day to you.


Lol.... ok, anything you say. I am/have attacked the wiiU and you and I am trying to paint the WiiU and somehow alll its fans, in bad light.

Pls, not wasting another word on me is something I would consider as you doing me a favor. Arguing facts? How is it possible that someone can ignore what was actually being said 3 times over now and take all this off to this strange offbase personal tangent. If you actually read what I was saying and not play this victim role you would actually see that contrary to what you may think, I actually was not and never was attacking 'you" or the WiiU.

But yh.............



bold, i'd say someday in 2015



Aielyn said:
black8jac said:
Aielyn said:
I doubt it. In order for it to achieve that result, it has to outsell XBO+WiiU weekly enough to push it over the limit. And with the exception of weeks where a significant game releases, it hasn't been doing so.

The most recent week of data has PS4 easily selling better... but that's because TLOU:R released. In the week before that, PS4 sold roughly as much as XBO+WiiU, with none of the systems getting a notable game. Same the week before that, and the week before that, and the week before that, and the week before that (and in that week, PS4 had a new game release in 11th on the chart), and the week before that (PS4 had a position-1 title that week), and the week before that. Indeed, with the exception of the most recent week, the last time PS4 outsold XBO+WiiU was in the week before the XBO price cut.

Now, you can assert that PS4 will have more notable games... but so will both XBO and Wii U. Which means it'll likely come down to how much of a boost each system can get during the holidays... and Nintendo systems typically get stronger boosts from the holidays, and Wii U is getting Smash. As such, it will be a challenge, in my opinion, for PS4 to manage to outsell the combination of Wii U and XBO for the remainder of the year (I'm not saying Wii U will sell exceptionally well, but its improved strength means that PS4 has to outperform XBO by more than it otherwise would have).


Well, actually according to VGC PS4 selling more than double Xbone+WiiU in 2014 worldwide, just check 2014 to date PS4 does over 58%.

Please don't waste time responding unless you read and understand what is being discussed first.

PS4 was selling a lot better before May. XBO and Wii U were selling a lot worse before end of May and middle of June, respectively (MK8 release and price cut, respectively). Year-to-date numbers do not reflect current trends.

According to VGC In June and July most of the weeks PS4 sold just over WiiU and Xbone combined, except few weeks when sold just under WiiU and Xbone combined. That data has to be ajusted in favour PS4 as we know VGC shows 9.3 mln and Sony just announced 10 mln., so after adjustment sales will go even more in favour of PS4. Thats the current trends I see looking at the data. What You see is up to You.



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PS4 is selling well but I doubt it will out do the sales of the other two combined this year. Both have some pretty good games to move hardware this holiday.



Make it So.

drake_tolu said:

Much possibily no?

Lifetime is sure (PS4 not will have less than 50% of market, accept this), but for me even by 1 Jenuary 2015, Globally the PS4 will be more than all XBOX ONE and Wii U!

 

I predict 10,500,000 Wii U and 8,000,000 XBOX ONE by end of year...

10,5m+8m= 18,5m < PS4

What do you think?

It could.   I would say yes.



”Every great dream begins with a dreamer. Always remember, you have within you the strength, the patience, and the passion to reach for the stars to change the world.”

Harriet Tubman.

black8jac said:

According to VGC In June and July most of the weeks PS4 sold just over WiiU and Xbone combined, except few weeks when sold just under WiiU and Xbone combined. That data has to be ajusted in favour PS4 as we know VGC shows 9.3 mln and Sony just announced 10 mln., so after adjustment sales will go even more in favour of PS4. Thats the current trends I see looking at the data. What You see is up to You.

I honestly don't know what his problem is... he is selectively looking at the "facts" he wants to see and even worse in a way that would suit his stance.

In 2014.

  • PS4: 5.5M sold (adjusted using sony's annouced 10M consoles sold, VGC has it at 4.8+M)
  • WiiU: 1.5M sold (but hell, lets adjust it up to 2M to make people like him happy, added an imaginary 500k)
  • XB1: 1.9M sold (again, lets adjust this up to 2.4M, also adding an imaginary 500k)

So WiiU + XB1 real(and adjusted totals) = 3.4M (4.4M adjusted)

So

  • PS4 is 5.5M adjusted with sony announcement compared to 4.4M for the wiiU+XB1 after adding an imaginary 1M worth of sales to them. 
  • PS4 is 5.5M to the WiiU+XB1 3.4M is using VGCs current numbers for them. (61% of total PS4 sales)
  • PS4 is 4.8M (using pre adjusted VGC current numbers) to 3.4M for wiiU+XB1

I cannot think of how anyone will look at these numbers and say/suggest that the PS4 is not selling at an overall faster rate... unless

  1. The person disputes sony's announcement and suggests its a convenient lie cause they didn't make a press release announcing that milestone instead of choosing to wait a week or so (which they did) to announce at at a global media briefing.

  2. The person has no concept of averages and how if sampling any time period of data it is always best to use an average as a baseline rather than focus on whatever natural factors (eg new game being released, price drop..etc) skew numbers in either direction.

  3. The person is delusional (used literally and not as an insult so pls to whom it may concern look up the literal definition to see how it applies to this) and his/her inclinations/preferences has completely clouded his/her  ability to reason and/or process statistical evidence and thus makes the exception the rule or simply sensationalizes everything and contorts the facts. 

  4. The person bases his/her reasoning on generally shared constants across a sample base (eg. new wanted/popular game or price drop that will boost sales of which ever benefiting platform they happen for) and somehow manages to forget that what he/she is saying can and will also apply to the other platforms eg. WiiU had MK8 and PS4 will have Destiny (or insert any other system supposed system seller there).
So yeah, but my being in this thread wasn't even about this cause I felt all this was obvious. If the PS4s YTD means that its outsold both WiiU+XB1, then that also means that its monthly avergaes will show the same thing. Not considering those generaly shared constants I mentioned. So I didn't see the need to have to point this all out to people cause obviously anyone that doesn't see that is already looking at it how they want to look at it. I really just came here to understand this boost people keep talking about in relation to the WiiU.

DerNebel said:
The thing is you're speculating here, the Wii U and X1 might be mistracked but we don't know. We do in fact know that the PS4 is undertracked, because even if Sonys numbers are internal estimates, they are still way more accurate than Vgchartz numbers and I doubt that they'd lie about something like that on stage.

Also the Wii U has a much higher probability of actually being overtracked, seeing that Vgchartz has the system at over 6.54 million units at the end of June with just 6.67 million units shipped, which puts it at less than 130k units stock or about 2 weeks at the rate vgchartz is saying the Wii U is selling at, don't know about you, but I find that a little unrealistic. X1 might be undertrracked, but we really have nothing to go on here.

And yes I was averaging, I know, but think about it, there were only 2 big games that could really move systems released in that window, Watch Dogs and TLOU:R, how much can we seriously have undertracked those weeks? The baseline of the PS4 has to be considerably higher than what this site is showing at the moment.

Of course I'm speculating. That's what everybody here is doing. We don't have solid, undoubtable numbers. And as for Sony, I wouldn't put it past them in terms of lying on stage, when there's no way for them to get caught and their statement serves as very good PR for them. Also note that they said, on August 12th, that they'd hit 10 million by August 10th... how on earth could they get sufficiently accurate numbers within just two days, when even the dedicated market-tracking companies require weeks at least to get their data?

Also, the window also contained Wolfenstein: The New Order (over 300k sold in week 1), MLB 14 The Show (200k in week 1), and EA Sports UFC (230k in week 1). Not as significant as Watch_Dogs, sure, but still definitely big enough to impact sales... and yet, no such boost was observed for any of them. Heck, Watch_Dogs sold 1.6 million copies in week 1 on PS4, yet only boosted PS4 sales by 58% (about 60k), according to VGChartz. Perhaps these are the places that it was undertracked, and actual PS4 sales are at around 9.7 million rather than 10 million - I could certainly see Sony fudging the numbers that far in order to make the announcement at Gamescom rather than just via press release.

And no, the baseline doesn't have to be "considerably higher". You can argue that you consider the baseline being higher to be the most plausible argument, but it's not the only possibility. And that's my point - we don't have enough information to conclude what has "really" happened, we can only speculate, using the information that we do have.

Also, I could certainly see the Wii U stock being about 2 weeks off sold-out at any point right now. Retailers have, on the whole, been wary of stocking the Wii U in large quantities since the great slowdown of 2013. So when MK8 released and sales boosted, retailers probably kept ordering a few weeks worth of current sales numbers in advance, anticipating a slowdown that never came. And with no notable games releasing for a couple of months after that point, there was no reason for them to stock up in anticipation of another rush. So 130k left on shelves does seem entirely plausible to me.



Aielyn said:

Of course I'm speculating. That's what everybody here is doing. We don't have solid, undoubtable numbers. And as for Sony, I wouldn't put it past them in terms of lying on stage, when there's no way for them to get caught and their statement serves as very good PR for them. Also note that they said, on August 12th, that they'd hit 10 million by August 10th... how on earth could they get sufficiently accurate numbers within just two days, when even the dedicated market-tracking companies require weeks at least to get their data?

Also, the window also contained Wolfenstein: The New Order (over 300k sold in week 1), MLB 14 The Show (200k in week 1), and EA Sports UFC (230k in week 1). Not as significant as Watch_Dogs, sure, but still definitely big enough to impact sales... and yet, no such boost was observed for any of them. Heck, Watch_Dogs sold 1.6 million copies in week 1 on PS4, yet only boosted PS4 sales by 58% (about 60k), according to VGChartz. Perhaps these are the places that it was undertracked, and actual PS4 sales are at around 9.7 million rather than 10 million - I could certainly see Sony fudging the numbers that far in order to make the announcement at Gamescom rather than just via press release.

And no, the baseline doesn't have to be "considerably higher". You can argue that you consider the baseline being higher to be the most plausible argument, but it's not the only possibility. And that's my point - we don't have enough information to conclude what has "really" happened, we can only speculate, using the information that we do have.

Also, I could certainly see the Wii U stock being about 2 weeks off sold-out at any point right now. Retailers have, on the whole, been wary of stocking the Wii U in large quantities since the great slowdown of 2013. So when MK8 released and sales boosted, retailers probably kept ordering a few weeks worth of current sales numbers in advance, anticipating a slowdown that never came. And with no notable games releasing for a couple of months after that point, there was no reason for them to stock up in anticipation of another rush. So 130k left on shelves does seem entirely plausible to me.

I don't believe that a company would tell such a straight up lie on stage at Gamescom, Sony could have stayed ambiguous, could have stated a simple shipped number for example, the fact that they deliberately went out of their way to even specify "yes, we mean sold to customers", leads me to believe that they're not lying here, sure those numbers are still internal estimates, but I'd say that they are extremely close.

And yes it is just by far the most plausible explanation that the baseline is considerably higher, the couple games releasing in that quarter actually making up boosts of that magnitude seems pretty unlikely, I think the tracking being off in Europe and the Rest of the World, something that has been proven time and time again, on a weekly basis seems like a more plausible explanation.

Regarding the Wii U, I would disagree, but at this point in time neither you nor I have real tangible proof for our standpoints, so it seems pretty unnecessary to dicuss this.