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Forums - Sales Discussion - Prediction: Xbox One Will Have a 10 Million Lead over Wii U by the. End of 2015

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niallyb

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eva01beserk said:

Absolutly Agreed. 

Toastboy, did you see gamescon? What makes you think the x1 will sell well next year since for almost 10 months they will only have one big exclusive? And please dont say third party multyplats.

Did you know that nintendo is going to release one exclusive a month for the entire year? Not sure if they are big games, but anything is better than nothing.

I perdict the x1 selling 8m by years end and around 13m by end of 2015.

The wii U will sell 10m by years end and around 17m by the end od 2015.

Next year will be the worst year for the x1 and this one does not look to good. All 3 of them will get a pricecut tnext year so the impact on selling more then anyother will be canceled.

But 3rd Party Multiplats! lol

People's basis that they wont sell Xbox hardware is based on cross gen releases which really shouldn't have an effect on next gen hardware and hasn't bar watchdogs (58% PS4, 27% Xbox One). Did the xbox360 and PS3 sell 80m because of PS2 and Xbox1 titles? Our only reference says that big generation exclusive software sells hardware respective to that generation even if one console is favoured more then the other.

Please someone explain to me why this won't apply this time round. Its not like the Xbox Doesn't have exclusives coming up and both systems are similarly priced, its simply ilogical to think everyone is automatically gonna side with Playstation. Especially when none of their IPs don't as much power as Halo in the North America. It will only take a small increase for Xbox to outpace Wii U. The reason why we haven't seen this yet is because not a single big 3rd party next gen exclusive has been release in the 9months since the PS4/XO Launch, but there are dozens on the way. (Assassins Creed Unity, Witcher 3, Evolve, Batman Arkham Knight in the next 6months). Infact most releases in 2015 are next exclusives, which why the PS4 will probably sell 15m-20m  and the Xbox will sell at least half of that.

If you've seen 2015 line up of games, including Xbox Exclusives you really have no reason to believe Xbox Sales will be down YOY which is what your forecast predicts.

Also the effect of Pikmin, Donkey Kong, Wonderful 101 and Sonic on wii U sales in the last 9months, tells you how valuable Nintendo's exclusives are when they are not Mario, Zelda or Pokemon. 



People are acting like the Gamecube and Original Xbox didn't exist. Both systems show what you're likely to sell with the backing of cool exclusives but not massive 3rd party which in fact is the heart of the Industry.



I personally see it like this at the end of 2015

Wii U; 16m
Xbox One;20m
PS4; 35m.



MonkeyDLuffy said:
Svengoolie said:

Toastboy is obviously trolling because nobody would actually believe this. Xbones are at 5 million now, if the charts are to be believed. So you think they're going to magically sell 7 million consoles in the next 4 months. There's no way you think that.

 

User was moderated for this post - Conegamer

Can someone PLEASE tell me what was wrong with that post and what would cause someone to be banned for it?

You can't say an user is trolling, because that's against the rules!



                
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niallyb said:
Splatoon, mario maker, Yoshi, project guard, project giant robot, smash bros (will have long legs through 2015), Zelda, kirby and the rainbow curse, captain toad, mario party 10, the rumored remaster (my guess is SMS or Majoras mask), DK racing (rumored)


Not all of the above need to be huge hits for Wii U to outsell 2014 numbers, especially with a price cut.

Speculating a little - if there is a hardware revision that improves the tablet wifi distance and battery life and adds more storage options - that would be really nice . I'm prolly just wishing here.

X1 has a VERY similar upcoming library to PS4 and that's not a good thing for it. So it will either need to beef up on mass market exclusives, do serious money hatting with 3rd parties or drop its price a lot. The European sales numbers are kind of shocking they are so bad. Halo is a little worn out and the shine is coming off the FPS genre in general - compare sales of the current iterations of the big FPS franchises Vs the prev iterations. Titanfall did not do the expected job in terms of pushing hardware over the long term.

Best guess

End of 2014 Wii u at 10.5-11 mil..... X1 at 9-9.5 mil
End of 2015 Wii u at 16-17 mil.........X1 at 15

That didn't stop either Xbox360 or the PS3.



I dont know how you got to the conclusion that XBONE will sell 7million in the 4 months remaining of this year.

I think XBONE will reach around 9 million by EOY if it has a very good holiday period
and WiiU will be at around 10-11 million by EOY with big boosts from Smash bros and bayonetta 2.



Current Game Machines: 3DS, Wii U, PC.

Currently Playing: X-Com(PC), Smash Bros(WiiU), Banner Saga(PC), Guild Wars 2(PC), Project X Zone(3DS), Luigis Mansion 2(3DS), DayZ(PC)

I think this will only happen if three things occur. A Halo number title releases (Halo 5 is suppose to release in 2015), price drop (very likely) and if major third party developers stop making games for 360/ps3 (possible for certain games). Anyways, I have no doubt that xbox one will outsell WII U world wide by the end of 2015.  (All major third party titles with the best exclusives going to for it in 2015 and a price drop more than likely).



niallyb said:
Splatoon, mario maker, Yoshi, project guard, project giant robot, smash bros (will have long legs through 2015), Zelda, kirby and the rainbow curse, captain toad, mario party 10, the rumored remaster (my guess is SMS or Majoras mask), DK racing (rumored)


Not all of the above need to be huge hits for Wii U to outsell 2014 numbers, especially with a price cut.

Speculating a little - if there is a hardware revision that improves the tablet wifi distance and battery life and adds more storage options - that would be really nice . I'm prolly just wishing here.

X1 has a VERY similar upcoming library to PS4 and that's not a good thing for it. So it will either need to beef up on mass market exclusives, do serious money hatting with 3rd parties or drop its price a lot. The European sales numbers are kind of shocking they are so bad. Halo is a little worn out and the shine is coming off the FPS genre in general - compare sales of the current iterations of the big FPS franchises Vs the prev iterations. Titanfall did not do the expected job in terms of pushing hardware over the long term.

Best guess

End of 2014 Wii u at 10.5-11 mil..... X1 at 9-9.5 mil
End of 2015 Wii u at 16-17 mil.........X1 at 15

How did you forget devils third and xenoblade x? Specially x wich is very anticipated since the last one was claimed as one of the top jrpg's of last gen.

X1 and ps4 will be diferent in the exclusive side, the x1 just lacks any, they have one for 10 months until halo comes in the holidays. Ps4 has far to many.



It takes genuine talent to see greatness in yourself despite your absence of genuine talent.

eva01beserk said:
niallyb said:
Splatoon, mario maker, Yoshi, project guard, project giant robot, smash bros (will have long legs through 2015), Zelda, kirby and the rainbow curse, captain toad, mario party 10, the rumored remaster (my guess is SMS or Majoras mask), DK racing (rumored)


Not all of the above need to be huge hits for Wii U to outsell 2014 numbers, especially with a price cut.

Speculating a little - if there is a hardware revision that improves the tablet wifi distance and battery life and adds more storage options - that would be really nice . I'm prolly just wishing here.

X1 has a VERY similar upcoming library to PS4 and that's not a good thing for it. So it will either need to beef up on mass market exclusives, do serious money hatting with 3rd parties or drop its price a lot. The European sales numbers are kind of shocking they are so bad. Halo is a little worn out and the shine is coming off the FPS genre in general - compare sales of the current iterations of the big FPS franchises Vs the prev iterations. Titanfall did not do the expected job in terms of pushing hardware over the long term.

Best guess

End of 2014 Wii u at 10.5-11 mil..... X1 at 9-9.5 mil
End of 2015 Wii u at 16-17 mil.........X1 at 15

How did you forget devils third and xenoblade x? Specially x wich is very anticipated since the last one was claimed as one of the top jrpg's of last gen.

X1 and ps4 will be diferent in the exclusive side, the x1 just lacks any, they have one for 10 months until halo comes in the holidays. Ps4 has far to many.

Xbox one has Halo 5, Fable legends, Forza 6 (more than likely), Crackdown, Phantom Dust, Tomb Raider, Gears of War, Scalebound, Quantum Break, Dance central, Master Chief collection, Sunset Overdrive, Spark, Forza Horizon 2, ect... I think we can agree that xbox one has more than enough games exclusive wise. Plus not to mention all the third party support. So more people are going to pick up an Xbox one than a Wii U.