Lately I've seen multiple threads about comebacks, Consoles getting better and getting worse, you know the ones, and people claiming victories already while others claiming that any thing can happen and change things drastically, but not alot of reason, despite this being a sales forum.

So, lets clear somethings up.

At least for consoles, i.e dedicated gaming devices (PCs/Phones do not count, and their sales arent tracked here anyway), there are 2 periods of the year that matter. Holidays and the rest of the year. Consoles generally sell more in those two months then the rest of the months combined. The effect of the Holidays is so potent, that it also affects sales before and after it starts.

The Xbox 360 is a great example of this.

A console's baseline forms during the Drought period, as this is how the Console sells without any kind of sales boost.

Now you may be thinking, but Henry, if the last two months can outsell the rest of the year, then doesn't that prove that a short burst of sales can make up for the sales of the rest of the year?

On the contrary, it means that the sales in the Holiday period are mediated by the performance during the longer Else period, in other words, the consistent performance of the Else Period matters just as much as the holidays. 

Not to mention that consistency increases the probability that things can happen. Simply saying "Anything can happen" is in reality a nonstatement. Based on what we have seen in the past, with true understanding of what is occuring, then we can predict the future with some degree of certainty.

Therefore, the possibility of amazing sales over a small period isn't as important as the consistency and the probabilty of consistency during the Else period.

Thus, anything can happen, but it only matters if it causes a consitent change.

I don't disagree with the general point, but OP is hardly making a logical demonstration, especially with this unfounded "on the contrary"

Yes and no. This rule you made only goes for the US market and when the 360 was dominating said market.

Everything you said makes sense... wait... is logic being used in a VG Chartz thread... I can't belive it, I won't. Let me go back to my shell!

You can use any console, I use 360 in 2011 because its clear cut and on its peak, you can use any console you want and still be able to observe the sales in November and December vs the rest of the year/

360, is just an example.

Not to mention the graph clearly says "Global" e_e.

What does Globally have to do with the US. :O

How is it unfounded? The worse the performance in the first 10 months, the better the performance must be in the holidays to make up for it. Its basic arithmetic. In simpler terms if you get C at the end of the year which is A(Else) + B(Holiday). The smaller A gets, the bigger B must be just to maintain C, let alone increase it.

Mhmm, this makes a lot of sense actually! Nice thread

Interesting read.....and very good points. But all I can say is...."Anything can happen" lol

that is not what you wrote

1) if the last two months can outsell the rest of the year = a short burst of sales can make up for the sales of the rest of the year

vs "on the contrary"

2) if the last two months can outsell the rest of the year = the sales in the Holiday period are mediated by the performance during the longer Else period

1) is not contrary to 2)

A great and logical thread as usual. Math FTW. Anything can happen but if its not supported by math and physics then it probably won't happen. Like Xb1 outselling Ps4 this year. At best they can close the gap. Granted they just released in china but considering public opinion of MS there is poor its doubtful it will have any affect. Not to mention the fact that most people there make $2.99 n hour and the console costs $599 there. Of course they are also opening in more regions, but again likely won't make any difference since most of the regions it's opening in are within driving distance of regions that have had it from the start. The exception being Japan but seeing as how they don't have a long track record with favoring MS and seeing how MS isn't really producing anything that appeals to them it's again unlikely.

Next year is a crap shoot tho and I'm confident this holiday season will bring the two closer together. So it's still a lively game, MS just needs to produce more and better games. As it stands now Sony has more exclusives, more AAA and more indies out and coming to the table. So games matter and it's no surprise the one with the best current games is still in a very strong lead that is getting stronger.