Lately I've seen multiple threads about comebacks, Consoles getting better and getting worse, you know the ones, and people claiming victories already while others claiming that any thing can happen and change things drastically, but not alot of reason, despite this being a sales forum.
So, lets clear somethings up.
At least for consoles, i.e dedicated gaming devices (PCs/Phones do not count, and their sales arent tracked here anyway), there are 2 periods of the year that matter. Holidays and the rest of the year. Consoles generally sell more in those two months then the rest of the months combined. The effect of the Holidays is so potent, that it also affects sales before and after it starts.
The Xbox 360 is a great example of this.
A console's baseline forms during the Drought period, as this is how the Console sells without any kind of sales boost.
Now you may be thinking, but Henry, if the last two months can outsell the rest of the year, then doesn't that prove that a short burst of sales can make up for the sales of the rest of the year?
On the contrary, it means that the sales in the Holiday period are mediated by the performance during the longer Else period, in other words, the consistent performance of the Else Period matters just as much as the holidays.
Not to mention that consistency increases the probability that things can happen. Simply saying "Anything can happen" is in reality a nonstatement. Based on what we have seen in the past, with true understanding of what is occuring, then we can predict the future with some degree of certainty.
Therefore, the possibility of amazing sales over a small period isn't as important as the consistency and the probabilty of consistency during the Else period.
Thus, anything can happen, but it only matters if it causes a consitent change.
In this day and age, with the Internet, ignorance is a choice! And they're still choosing Ignorance! - Dr. Filthy Frank
