Well I disagree on less compelling software, FFX has yet to release outside of Japan, and I think that's the best game for the Vita. Plus Western gamers will see Gravity Rush 2, Freedom Wars.

As for Gamecube, on second glace Vita is noticably below Gamecube at the same time period. Gamecube sold about 10 million units in 2 years (including 3 holidays seasons) Vita sold 7 million in 10 years (including only 2 holiday seasons since it released in February). Still Gamecube sales only fell 10% during the third year, and if Vita followed the exact same pattern as Gamecube (by % drops annually) that would put Vita at

2.8 million in 2014 (-10% from 3.1 million)
2.2 million in 2015 (-20%)
1.3 million in 2016 (-40%)
0.4 million in 2017 (-70%)

Total: 6.7 million + the 7 million it was at at the start of 2014. That's 13.7 million, which is weak.........especially considering how much bigger the market is now.

http://vgsales.wikia.com/wiki/Nintendo_GameCube

Anyway, if anything the Vita is today GameGear. It's looking to sell a bit better, but considering the market has grown it's actually selling worse.

----

30% of a drop for 2014 is too much, especially now that that PS4+ Vita bundle exists. PS4 did boost Vita sales I recall, and FFX is a big deal. I think 14 million or so is likely, which is more then the Sega Master System (13 million)

Edit: I just realized that I compared Gamecubes fiscal years (March-March) to Vita's actual years (Jan-Dec). Still, the same pattern emerges, Vita should have 2 more years of decent sales before it drops.

 Even if it is not selling really well  right now I still think it can reach 15-20 million lifetime sales.    I hope it does well.. It has some potential. Too bad the general consumer doesn't give a damn.

FFX is a great game no doubt but I do not see it moving massive hardware in the West. Same goes with Gravity Rush 2 and Freedom Wars. They are not compelling enough to drive sales of the Vita, especially in the West. I wouldn't put my money on either of those games as being system sellers.

Let's say hypothetically, the Vita manages to only drop 10-15% instead of improving sales. Do you really think Sony will invest any more money in developing games for it? I highly doubt it as it would not be worth the investment. They literally would need a significant increase in order to make it viable to do so as I bet you it cost more to make AAA games for the platform then what the returns are. Again, lets just say they managed the slight drop your hoping for, I could still see them discontinuing production by next year which would in turn create the possibility of selling under 11 million units.

I would also like to point out that 2nd year sales of the gamecube increased 34% compared to the 1st year whereas the 3rd year dropped 13% compared to the 2nd. Vita is the opposite with a 30% drop in it's 2nd year. You also have to admit that Uncharted, LBP,Persona 4,  Killzone, etc were much more compelling titles to get people to purchase the system than the "anticipated" titles of this year. If those titles could not sell the Vita to the public, do you really believe the games you listed will?

Yes, I believe so. I personally don't think it will drop in sales as quickly as you expect, so I think it will make it past 11m fairly easily. I also believe it has another price cut coming, so we'll see if it helps increase momentum at all, or at least prevent it from dropping.

It's very easy to calculate. Based on the fact that Vita has less compelling software announced for this year than the previous 2 years, one can fairly assume that sales will continue to decrease. With a price cut, the vita still managed to sell less that 30% in it's second year than 1st. If this trend continues (which is highly likely) and is just nearing the 10 million mark by mid 2015, do you really believe they won't scrap it?

Vita sold 15% less and the price drop came late, the same drop off will still see it pass 10 million by the end of 2014, the 2014 line up in Europe and japan is looking better than 2013.. not sure what you mean the line up is lookign weaker.

The Vita had a price drop in it's second year and it still sold 30% less. I don't forsee a second price drop maintaining momentum after an initial sales bump like thep revious one. Unless Sony pulls something out of their ass and announces a stellar 1st party lineup  for this year, YoY sales should decrease another 30% if not more.

Definitely, It can pull it next year even. Okay surely before Dec 2015 for me. But I predict on 31March 2015 it'll be above 11M.

Where are you getting 15% from ????? Your halfway there,lol. If we take the sales figures from Dec 2011, and Feb 2012 - Jan 4th 2013, the Vita sold 4.25 million units within that time frame (less than a year for WW sales). From Jan 4th 2013 - Jan 5th 2014 it has only sold an additional 3.02! If we calculate the percentage that brings us to 29% (I rounded to 30).

Please, advise me what games in your mind are more compelling than the 2012/2013 lineup for the Vita. I'm interested to know.

Sony released games on the PS1-PS3 after the system was discontinued. Why would Sony suddenly stop supporting their system late life? Nintendo still developed for the N64 and Gamecube right up until they were replaced (often seeing some of their best work come out right at the end).

You think the Vita will be discontinued in 2015? Have you looked at Japan sales, Vita is doing fine there. Until hype in Japan dies, they will still sell Vita's here too.

Uncharted, LBP, Persona 4 and Killzone 2 released over a span of 2 years, not 1. All Vita had in 2013 was Tearaway, Killzone, Soul Sacrifice, Ys, and Dragon's Crown. 2014 is already looking better with Gravity Rush 2, FFX, Freedom Wars, Soul Sacrifice Delta, and maybe God Eater 2 outside of Japan.

Anyway, none of the upcoming games releasing for the Vita are System Sellers, any would be lucky to break 1 million, but it's enough to keep the fans happy. I don't see PSV being discontinued any time soon because it's still selling well in Japan. Plus all Sony needs to do is announce an Uncharted: Golden Abyss 2 a Gran Turismo, or even just a God of War, and boom that guarenteed Vita will be around for at least 3 years.

Problem is the PSP is too awesome. Why buy PS1 games over PSN, when I already own them and can just download them onto my PSP for free?

Sure PS3 games are nice on the go, but very few games, which aren't need for speed and are releasing on the Vita are stuff I care about. It didn't even get the latest Assassin's Creed or Call of Duty, and those were 2 of the best selling games from 2012

I have a PSP, and I'm not that impressed with Vita. I'll buy a Vita for Uncharted one day, but I'm in no rush atm, and that's the big issue. Nothing on Vita tells gamers they "must have" it.